LibertyBell
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My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
LibertyBell replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
why would you be copying him anyway-- his outlooks are virtually the same every year lol -
My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
LibertyBell replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That's my memory too-- and also when you get a -NAO in December it tends to persist for much of the winter. -
above normal monthly mean doesn't mean we can't get snowstorms-- there are some + Decembers in that list that still had a decent amount of snow.
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Isn't that warm water good for bombogenesis and we might need that southeast ridge to avoid suppression.
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You really dont need colder than average to get snow. Just the right timing. We've had many many colder than normal months that either turned out dry or the timing was off and we had mild wet and then cold dry. There are other Decembers in there that were good for snow-- notably December 2020.
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Monmouth county jackpot as usual. 3 feet there! Remember that deck cam lol?
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in anger or delight?
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What caused the change?
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The last 10 days of December are when winter actually begins and that's when we have our first decent snowfall usually too.
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My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
LibertyBell replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It can be cold in both the west and east, and I see NOAA is now going with a cold east. The likely pattern will be cold in the north (regardless of whether you're in the west or east) and warm in the south. -
I hate wind.
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Definitely not underperforming. Very high winds and heavy rain.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LibertyBell replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
from NYC subforum Dimming the Sun to Cool the Planet Is a Desperate Idea, Yet We're Inching Toward It. The scientists who study solar geoengineering don’t want anyone to try it. But climate inaction is making it more likely. https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/dimming-the-sun-to-cool-the-planet-is-a-desperate-idea-yet-were-inching-toward-it/amp -
a bunch of very rich people are thinking of doing it on their own with or without any government help or consent.
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But he said he expected a snowy December (just not a big snowstorm)
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If it made our winters snowier and colder we didn't see it until 93-94
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10 feet of snow in the Poconos near Stroudsburg! Question-- the end of the excerpt cut off talking about it being "the only winter in recorded American history during which the waters surrounding"....does that mean the SST was below freezing in our area?
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Would have been 2 foot plus events in the heart of winter though And there was the one in early April which might have been 2 feet in February.
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and the last time that happened was back in the 1780s during that famous New England winter? wow...if I remember correctly that was the winter with the snowstorms that buried entire houses. NYC and Philly may had over 100" of snow
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What's that huge double peak at the end? 2009-10 and 2010-11?
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How well can they predict where the extreme blocking will show up from year to year? I'm guessing not well?
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Now the question is how much of a role climate change plays in these extreme blocks, since they seem to be migrating to different parts of the globe. In 2014-15 we also had extreme blocking but it was in the North Pacific (if I remember correctly?) and if climate change plays a role in the extremity of these blocks will their return rate increase? Has it been already? 2017-18 was another example of extreme blocking, but much later in the season.
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Yes in 2010 that hung on a knife's edge, as the original prediction was for 3 inches or less in December, which would have meant a low snowfall winter. The day after Christmas storm when the month was nearly over is what turned the knife.
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What caused that historic block in 2010? Was it a holdover from what happened the previous winter?
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We had a large area of 30"+ in January 2016. It's going to be really hard to top that. And strong el ninos provide kind of juice to do that on a widespread basis (Feb 1983 and PD2 were two other cases where it happened.)
