LibertyBell

Sorry to say this about models, but they aren't very smart Look at this from a climate history perspective. June 26, 1952 at JFK -- 99 degrees on a SSW wind at 13 mph!! and it's hard to believe it did not hit 100 at JFK in between hours on this date, when it was 99 on a SSW wind and then the wind switched to WSW and it was 99 for two more hours..... https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1952-6-26 12:00 PM 94 °F 75 °F 54 % SW 18 mph 0 mph 29.78 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 1:00 PM 95 °F 74 °F 50 % SW 17 mph 0 mph 29.76 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 2:00 PM 98 °F 73 °F 44 % SW 15 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 3:00 PM 99 °F 72 °F 42 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 4:00 PM 92 °F 73 °F 54 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Fair 5:00 PM 99 °F 68 °F 36 % WSW 20 mph 0 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 6:00 PM 99 °F 69 °F 38 % WSW 15 mph 0 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 7:00 PM 94 °F 74 °F 52 % SW 12 mph 0 mph 29.74 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy

100 likely, 105 not likely, you don't get that kind of heat in June

100 for all us likely on Tuesday

Rather than any model I would much rather rely on climate knowledge and what has happened in the past here. Let the past be your guide to the future as the saying goes.

yes typically the sea breeze comes in somewhere between 4-6 pm

wow the last 100 at JFK occurred exactly a year (to the date!) later than NYC!

why has the west been more consistently hot (even near the west coast), did the climate models predict the west would be more affected by the heat?

89 here about 5 miles east of JFK

that 88 at JFK is very obviously wrong, if Farmingdale hits 101 and Islip hits 100, JFK is going to be AT LEAST 101 (there has never been a case when Islip and/or Farmingdale were 100 or higher and JFK was not.)

I couldn't stand that mass killing program that Bloomberg had going on during his administration, one of many things I couldn't stand about that billionaire reincarnation of Attila the Hun (his stature was just as small too.)

good to see some of our hotter summers on this list too, though the 2020s have exceeded them in Central PA. 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1944 75.3 0 10 2002 75.0 0 2010 76.4 0 - 1966 76.4 0 - 1949 76.4 0 4 1955 76.3 1

Yes, in the winter it's much more apparent, though summertime minima and increased rainfall and humidity are also strong indicators.

wild, are those locations also getting an elevated number of 90 degree (hot) days? Typically in the Poconos we can count on heat during the day but it would always cool off at night so we didn't need air conditioning, we just opened our windows and the outside air would cool down my house at night. 2024 was different as it was hot during the day and at night.

GGEM also has rain for the coast a lot during the winter lol

we hit 88 here too but then the clouds came in

Nice, it sounds like I would be 100+ on Tuesday on that model run too.

I remember Summer 2024 being extremely hot in the Poconos, it was the first time in my life I needed air conditioning at 2,000 ft elevation out there, not even the very hot summers of 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2010, 2011, needed that =\ Was Allentown on the list of their hottest summer last year? Mount Pocono too? Oh I pointed out the September / October heat of Monsoons in Asia because I think we might be headed in that direction too, we've had summerlike early-mid Falls lately. Last October-mid November was very summer like and September has been for awhile now. Think we can beat those old records from the 1930s-1960s this decade? I saw a few June 100s records from that time period a few years in the 50s had temperatures of 100+ in June at NYC, even JFK was 99 in May 1969 (which seems crazy to me lol) and NYC hit 101 in June 1966 before the big heat really came in July (for all of us.)

this feels like how models trend badly with snowfall events the processes are similar.

is it just for Monday or Tuesday too?

These radical shifts are a sign of inaccuracy.

None of these models have a good history with modeling a sea breeze front, this is something you have to wait until the day of the event to have a handle on it.

-PNA/-NAO combo sounds a lot like some of those late 60s winters.

now 88 here lol

yesterday and today are ideal, I'm trying to prep myself for the upcoming heat, although it's fun seeing the temp hit 100, it's really something you have to prep your body for, especially when it lasts multiple days.

I think the geese would stay away if people didn't litter so much (same goes for rats).