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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    Wow, this is absolutely amazing, thanks Tony! It's weird seeing 1935-36 in the list of coldest winters and coldest winter months considering how mild and snowless the 1930s generally were, if anything I would have thought 1933-34 would have the coldest winter and coldest month of that decade because of how extreme February 1934 was!
  2. LibertyBell
    It wasn't a fluke because back then we had much better blocking and we also had a couple of nice snowfalls in February and went below zero on Valentine's Day
  3. LibertyBell
    Wow, I didn't know Valentine's Day is the anniversary of the great 1899 BLIZZARD! Did the one in 1940 also affect our area? And today is the 8 year anniversary of the last time NYC went below zero! 1899 - A great blizzard struck the eastern U.S. Washington D.C. received 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ. (David Ludlum) 1940 - A "Saint Valentine's Day Blizzard" hit the northeastern U.S. Up to a foot and a half of snow blanketed southern New England, and whole gales accompanied the heavy snow stranding many in downtown Boston. (David Ludlum) 1940: A St. Valentine's Day Blizzard blankets New England with up to 18 inches of snow. Gale force winds associated with the storm strand many in downtown Boston.
  4. LibertyBell
    and I think the elevation helps keep snow cover intact longer too.
  5. LibertyBell
    It's basically either a KU or bust winter, nothing in between anymore.
  6. LibertyBell
    The commonality of 40 F DJF winters is pretty disheartening, and now we're going to have them back to back for the first time ever.
  7. LibertyBell
    and this could become the first time in recorded NYC history that we have back to back winters that average 40 F or higher for DJF?
  8. LibertyBell
    Right, it was like a spring storm in what's supposed to be the heart of winter.
  9. LibertyBell
    and I think it's only NYC that saw 5" from that surprise snowfall, the rest of us got around 2 inches from it.
  10. LibertyBell
    Yes it definitely much worse and the el nino was a lot stronger than this one, which is why I don't think they belong in the same category.
  11. LibertyBell
    That's very similar to mine, although I try to break it down to -/+ too. D- to me is the higher end of the under 10" range. I put 50 plus inches as A+
  12. LibertyBell
    Right, in that way it was very similar to last winter, we had a favorable period in December and a favorable period in March but neither worked out. Which probably means a consistently bad Pacific tilts the "luck" against us. It's very difficult to recover from a bad Pacific because of just how darn large it is. Even if it briefly becomes better, the better periods aren't long enough to benefit us much.
  13. LibertyBell
    That year was a paradigm shift to our climate. I don't believe that climate change occurs in small equal steps, I believe there are certain events, even natural events, that accelerate it. Happy 8 year anniversary of the last time NYC went below zero!
  14. LibertyBell
    and 8 years ago today was the last time NYC went below 0! Happy Valentine's Day!
  15. LibertyBell
    Thanks, I would think the average snowfall in that area is 30"+
  16. LibertyBell
    Sure, there's still a chance, but so far how would you grade this winter? I'd say D-. Last winter was an F (I don't think there is an F-). If we get a storm of 6"+ (doesn't even have to be 10"+ because we already have had a 4" storm), I would raise it to C-.
  17. LibertyBell
    No, but many made long range forecasts based on one significant 10"+ storm regionwide, it didn't have to be an HECS.
  18. LibertyBell
    I've been saying it for months based on the latent heat release from higher end el ninos (moderate or strong), specific examples are 1983, 1995, 1998, and 2010. This is general knowledge.
  19. LibertyBell
    Yeah, but it also proves to expect many more winters of this type, it really has nothing to do with enso state and much more to do with the evolving climate. That's the real reason to be upset.
  20. LibertyBell
    You'll never get an analog size that high and it's important to note that the changes 2015-16 brought to the Pacific Ocean is something we still haven't recovered from.
  21. LibertyBell
    See above post, we had much better blocking in those winters, with the changing climate, those blocks are not happening as frequently, specifically after 2015-16 we saw a complete change to the Pacific Ocean that we still haven't recovered from.
  22. LibertyBell
    Just dont say that 1982-83 and 2015-16 were "luck" there is no such thing as "luck" there are specific scientific reasons why these events happened and we had much better blocking in those winters. With the changing climate, those kinds of block have become far less frequent. That's the real reason why they happened. After 2015-16 we saw a complete change to the Pacific ocean that we still have not recovered from.
  23. LibertyBell
    You can't prove the statement you made either.
  24. LibertyBell
    Again with this luck thing-- Chris conclusively proved it isn't luck. Moderate and strong el ninos are prone to these kinds of storms, stop it with the luck thing.
  25. LibertyBell
    Those were far colder especially in the back half of winter. April 1983 had the latest significant snowfall in the history of Long Island and we had some moderate events in February 2016 as well as going below 0 on this date. There were several things to like about both of those. I dont get the glee about this winter, it's historically awful not just here but on a national level.
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