LibertyBell

How much for JFK, I had about 0.6 here.

I hope we get this in the summer too, it will make it hotter where I live and at the same time in the summer these winds will be MUCH more comfortable.

Yes, the models always play catch up with these kinds of changes. A CC -AMO will be different from a pre CC -AMO (if there is such a thing, because we had significant climate change in the 80s too, just not to the magnitude we have now.) By the way and this is important to note, that CC is causing competing factors that either enhance or oppose each other. The strong westerlies are caused by the marine heatwave out in the West Pac isn't it? If that marine heatwave doesn't lessen, what would stop the strong westerly flow? It could be that the strong westerly flow is being enhanced by climate change. I can see why scientists say that CC will lead to more extremes-- not just warmer weather, but both rainier AND drier, both higher dew points AND lower dew points, depending on which factor is being enhanced more at a particular time.

It's been happening for a few years now and climate change won't stop the return to -amo any more than it can stop -nao from happening or stop la ninas from happening. It's a relative definition. We already have lower dewpoints now, the winds have been westerly for several months now and this looks to continue. October was the driest month we've ever had and January was also historically dry.

I mean we had some heavy rain from about 12:30 am to about 2:30 am. I heard it start up a bit after the St. John's game.

Yes there have been some CC changes but I'm pretty confident we'll be returning back to a drier regime for a few years (call it a correction to the excessive rainfall of the last two decades) and hotter summers with more westerly flow, not sure about the below zero lows in the winter like the 80s had. Expect the westerly flow this summer to be more than what we've had the last few summers, more like 2010 and 2002 before that and more like what we had in the 80s and 90s.

Yeah I've been yelling about this since last year. Last year's suppression of tropical activity during the peak of the season and dryness in the second half of the year was the shot across the bow. Expect these things going forward for the next few years: 1) drier years, a correction from the excessive rainfall of the past two decades. 2) hotter summers in terms of 90 degree days and even 100 degree days right down to the coast with more westerly winds 3) less busy tropical seasons (it does not preclude east coast hurricanes though-- see Belle 1976, Gloria 1985 and Bob 1991). 4) possibility of below zero lows becoming more common in the winter, although this depends on upstream cold and CC changes to the climate since the 1980s.

I would love to see a map of that storm, I wonder how it did all that, was it a double barreled low that robbed certain areas of snow and dropped extra in others (like Philly)? I wonder how much Atlantic City saw in that storm and if there was some location in eastern PA or NJ that saw even more than that 19.4" amount in Philly?

Don didn'Philly get nearly 20" of snow in a storm that fringed NYC with only 10" in early April? Strange to get fringed in April, but those maps remind me of that storm....

No sun here at all.

I thought the SSW meant it was supposed to be below normal from next week into April?

Don is the 10.5 at Newark accurate? And why so little snow at Bridgeport? That's the exact opposite of March 2001, which was another cold challenged borderline event.

I think most of the snowfall accumulation happened at night.

I like that, maybe we can create computer simulations to analog years and add in things that might be different like marine heatwaves in the West Pac, Pac Jet being faster, AMO switch, etc. And then see how accurate the simulations would be in terms of temperatures and general storm tracks (not exact snowfall totals of course.)

How much of a correlation do you think this pattern had to 2013-14, taking into account the faster Pac Jet, AMO switch and CC? I would say not more than 50%, what do you think, Ray?

what kind of storm was this-- a noreaster with marginal temperatures for the coast? when we were mixing early on I had nightmares of March 2001 lol.

I like this because our heat comes from the west. Another hot summer like this happened in 1983, look how wet that year was and yet it was our hottest summer on record before 1991 and 1993. For JFK it held the record until 2010! Look at September 1983 we had 6 days of 90+ including a 96 as late as 9/11.

Well I don't like the word *luck*, because it implies magic. I think we can use logic to explain everything. In this case we're just switching to a much drier cycle (Pac Jet + switching of the AMO) which will continue for the time being. It has happened before and will happen again.

They're not identical though, even removing chaos from the equation. We are in a much different precip cycle than we were in the early 2010s and this (I conjecture) is because the AMO is switching to a drier state and of course the acceleration of the Pac Jet. If you go back to August and move forward you see that the drier pattern was already established.

But the downstream effects are different depending on how we achieve that la nina or cool ENSO state, right Ray? Ditto for el nino or warm ENSO state (in the opposite direction)?

Yes, we are results oriented.

The tropical season's large scale suppression during the peak of tropical season echoed the large scale suppression of rainfall and snowfall we have seen since last August. I think this is a shot across the bow of a switch in the AMO state to its drier state like we had during the 80s. Many similarities to that decade are now happening.

Listen to this bozo speak https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1902701079965380999 @SecretaryWright : "Net Zero by 2050 is just nonsense. It's an activist thing, and it's a top-down, big government justification to do mostly anti-human things... we will follow the math and the science and be honest about the tradeoffs here... If you could reduce greenhouse gas emissions without raising prices or reducing human freedom, that's a big win — and that's what the rise of U.S. shale gas has done." at least the British are much funnier.... https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1902344491060613313 NEW: Reform MP Lee Anderson asks Keir Starmer how much the Earth's temperature would drop if the UK hit net zero tomorrow Starmer: "Net zero is of course not easy, but they'd have better ideas if they stopped fawning over Putin" #PMQs

I rank it with April 2003, we got about the same 6-8 inches in both storms. So maybe once every 15 years we get a storm like this? Those two storms prove snow can definitely stick well in April as long as the snowfall rates are high enough. April 2003 was an all day snowstorm!

I saw a snowfall map somewhere that showed even the NJ coast got 6-8 inches, we got screwed from both directions lol. NYC got screwed in the April 1996 snowstorm like that too, but at least we got 4-5 inches here near JFK in that storm.