LibertyBell

much better than boring suppression that's for sure.

a back and forth pattern can do this

that's not climate change after 2021 lol, otherwise you have to blame everything on climate change. How did the gulf coast get snow this winter (as an example).

Yes, it's actually extremely rare to get shut out in February. You could have 2 inches of snow at night and 50s during the day pretty easily. Get that twice in the month and you have your 4 inches.

Yes, not in a few years. Those storms are some kind of magic.

we're talking about 2010s not 1910s, the climate doesn't change that quickly.

it makes no sense to say *no chance of snow* in the heart of winter, it's stupid, you can get snow in ANY pattern. Maybe not heavy snow, but accumulating snow can happen in ANY pattern in the middle of winter.

there is no need, we're talking about what's happened in past winters, in the heart of winter, you can have 60 one day, snow the next day and then back to 60 the day after. You don't need it to be a cold month to snow.

Yes!!

This is why we need to get rid of concrete and greenify the city. I hate densely populated areas anyway, all it results in is faster spread of disease and more dirtiness.

You should research February 2018, it was a lot warmer than this month is going to be and we still had a 5 inch snowstorm.

I'm looking at temps in the 50s-60s, a short cool down that lasts 2-3 days with a snow event, and then back to the 50s-60s.

hopefully warm enough to bring the storm track closer to us. This might mean more snow in February than we got in January. That would be a win.

why can't we ever have enough cold to have cold on -BOTH- sides of the pole? Has anyone ever thought about THAT?

I've been using the 1989-90 analog for a month now lol. But believe it or not in this era of climate change, there is no way FM will be as warm as JFM were in 1990. I would like to know what caused that early April snowfall event in 1990 after it was in the mid 80s for 3 straight days in middle March. Was that the result of an SSW in 1990?

They influence the outcome already by having all those artificial lights on around the rodent.

it can wait for February 1st. Although I will say I hate the way the calendar is arranged just based on math. There is absolutely no reason for February to only have 28 days. I would have given February one day each from January and from March and that would make the calendar much more symmetrical, with January, February, March and April each with 30 days (31 in February for leap year if you want). January 31st should not exist.

rain is good in February.

Because any history is still history, it keeps things interesting. I dont care about dryness, we've had decades of flooding and overly rainy patterns, now we're going back to what our climate should be. Minus the above normal temps.

I didn't know there were betting markets for snow..... It makes sense though 3" would get NYC to close to 9 inches and that will likely be it for the season.

If I were going to make a prediction, this is what I would say too. We're not likely to get a 4" snowstorm because those have been hard to come by the last few years and NYC is not likely to get 10" on the season. 1-3 is doable though. To break the 4" snowless streak, let alone the 10" season snowless streak, we're going to need a good pattern.

because of high solar and +QBO?

wow congrats, Ray, I always wanted to go on safari in Africa!

Wow, I bet the last time before that JFK had a -10 month was January 1977, Tony? Or was it December 1989?

it does sometimes. 15-16 had 40 inches of snow here with an average temperature of 40 degrees. Very similar to 82-83 (but even snowier). But you need a very strong el nino for that. It really depends on how warm it gets. Look at February 2018, it was a warm month during a la nina and we had a 5 inch snowstorm that month. It can happen but don't expect it to stay on the ground more than a day or two. This is the way I would put it: if it's a strong el nino you can still get an HECS during a mild winter. It may be the only major storm of the winter, but you can still get one. If it's a la nina you probably won't get anything more than 4-6 inches in a single snowstorm in a mild winter, but it's still something.