LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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It doesn't change the fact that the pattern will get much better after the 10th. Let's just hope it doesn't lead to suppression.
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he showed you!
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It's interesting that there's 15.1 inches south of us in Delaware and 14.6 inches north of us in CT, so are these 3 systems a mix of SWFE and suppressed?
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Maybe not quite as anomalous because it's February and not March? A few of those systems were quite borderline so more snow should be expected than we had that month since we're still in the middle of winter.
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ugh not more suppression..... why can't it be suppressed until it reaches the ocean and then climb up the coast?
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Don, are the Euro HIRES and EPS nao projections accurate though, they have the NAO around -2 to even -3 (EPS) by the 15th also (between the 11th and the 17th)..... the Euro AI drops it down even lower than that all the way down to -5.
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are they forecasting a time loop too (or three).....
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Change it to a map of January 1996, our biggest la nina snowstorm ever.
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Thanks, Tony, back then we used to have subzero arctic shots followed quickly by HECS!
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the wisest people are those who realize that the more they learn, the more there is yet left to learn.
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so a stratospheric polar vortex disruption is also *canonical* la nina?
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Here's to 1961 the coldest Groundhogs Day of all time, soon to be followed by a 2 foot blizzard!!
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storm coming in backwards, east to west, Walt? -
Lows:EWR: -2 (1961)NYC: -3 (1881)LGA: -1 (1961)JFK: -1 (1961) Tony was this great arctic outbreak in February 1961 just before the HECS that dumped 25.1" of snow at JFK? Their biggest snowstorm until PD2 (2003)!
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Looks like primetime begins on or after February 7th and the AO bottoms out around the 15th. If we extend this outward it should become positive again by the 23rd, so we should score something by or before then.
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Around what time do you think the pattern begins to relax-- February 25th?
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Yeah I'd like someone to run some numbers and point out what our best 15 day period is for double digit (10"+) snowstorms, but I think it would be approximately from Feb 5 - Feb 20.
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a gorgeous pink/purple sunrise here and 17 degrees !!
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So this wont be a Feb 10 - 25 kind of 15 day window, Chris? What are you looking at for the peak of the pattern, from Feb 15-20?
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Driest January on record at Mt Pocono too!!
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I think that night when we were snowing heavily the winds were howling out of the south though? Maybe we can go back and check, but that was one WILD night!
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and that is our classic period for big snowstorms. For NYC it's between February 5-20 and that is exactly when this pattern gets going.
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This is the main reason to be somewhat excited....
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that the GFS is that high is GREAT even if it's not right, because how far off can it be? Even 1/3 of that amount would be just fine!
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But it's the time of year that matters. The waters are at their coldest starting now.
