weatherextreme

New Day `1 New Day 2

Thinking we could possibly see a hatched for tornadoes tomorrow. From the SPC Farther south along the front into central/eastern TX, the front will continue to push rapidly south overnight, with increasing storm coverage. Ample instability will interact with the front, with parallel deep-layer shear vectors and weakening winds in the low levels. Hail appears to be the main threat as the storms become undercut by the cold air, but a narrow zone of damaging wind potential could materialize should storms propagate fast enough to keep up with the front. The cells over southern OK and North TX prior to 00Z in particularly may produce damaging hail and a tornado or two before the front undercuts the activity. Any cells or bows that can propagate with a strong eastward component may reside along the boundary longer, enhancing both severe wind and tornado threat.

I could see this outlook possibly upgrading to at least enhanced by Thursday.

Dallas with the weather tonight is trending https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Dallas&src=trend_click&vertical=trends

From Little Rock NWS Thursday... Will opt to recycle the discussion for Thursday from the mid-shift as nothing the dayshift did could really improve upon their work. Main talking points for Thursday will still be the uncertainty regarding the northward extent of the wrm frnt, which could greatly limit the extent of severe weather potential Thursday night... Despite the exit of upper shortwave troughing Wed night, lingering instability and ongoing WAA aloft will support at least some convective potential overnight into Thurs morning, some of which may be severe. This will also be a crucial trend to monitor thru today/tonight as this area of convection may alter the warm sector, potentially reconfiguring the greatest severe threat area later in the day. Additionally, guidance remains persistent in its depiction of showers with embedded thunder lingering over portions of central/Nrn AR during the morning and afternoon. Deep moisture, including very moist low-levels, suggests the development of a strong Swrd moving cold pool is unlikely, although even modestly rain-cooled air will have the potential to push the warm front Swrd. As mentioned above, model variability remains regarding this particular evolution with lingering questions about the northward extent of the best BL air and warm sector. A Swrd trend is noted based on consecutive model runs, but to what degree this will occur remains unclear. Locations along/south of the boundary will see instability on the order of 2000 to 2500 SBCAPE/MLCAPE as well as strong moisture convergence along the boundary. As of this writing, this boundary appears most likely to set up from near Mena to Hot Springs to Stuttgart to near Holly Springs, MS, but again, this will likely change in future cycles. A more Srn shift would push us towards a best case scenario for AR, but a more Nrn shift will push us towards a more worst case scenario with more of AR in the volatile warm sector. Further complicating the Thurs severe threat are progged phasing issues between the warm sector and more robust forcing for ascent. The incoming upper trough/cyclone will assume a negative tilt as it approaches AR, but only neutral to weak height falls are expected thru much of the day. After 03/00Z, more impressive height falls begin to overspread the warm sector, thus supporting an increase in more intense convection. This will occur in tandem with a rapid increase in tropospheric flow as a 160 to 180 kt upper jet impinges on the area and a very intense 70 to 80 kt LLJ develops by evening. Storm modes and timing also remain nebulous, partly due to the lack of more robust synoptic forcing during the day and the yet-to-be- determined ability for moisture convergence along the boundary, or free convection within the somewhat capped warm sector, to generate storms. BRN values exceeding 10 indicate enough shear/instability balance for organized modes once initiation occurs with multiple modes likely, including strong supercells and clusters/segments. Upscale growth along an Ewrd-racing cold front Thurs night will support an intense squall line during the overnight hours. Enough shear/curvature/instability will exist such that all severe hazards will be possible anytime Thurs, but the developing LLJ during the evening will significantly enlarge hodographs with SRH values jumping to between 400 to 600+ m^2/s^2 within the warm sector, and especially near the boundary. This presents a concerning scenario regarding tornado potential with the parameter space more than adequate for several strong/violent tornadoes along/S of the boundary. The ejecting cyclone late Thurs will cause the warm sector to quickly surge Nwrd immediately ahead of a NEwrd moving sfc cyclone, progged to move across NWrn AR during the overnight. This may offer some window for pre-squall-line convection over central/Ern AR before widespread damaging winds and embedded tornadic circulations within the squall line sweep W to E across the Srn half of the area Thurs night. Convection will end by dawn with lingering wrap around moisture supporting rainfall across Nrn AR during the day Fri, although this will be much more benign with the severe threat ending by 03/12Z. Bottom line: an outbreak of severe weather is still likely Thurs/Thurs night, but the highest threat will reside along and S of the warm front, the placement of which remains unclear and may continue to present high uncertainty thru the event. Flooding will also be likely thru Fri morning as moisture parameters remain very high thanks to continued strong moisture advection. Training storms are likely along/north of the front. This area was recently inundated with several inches of rain with NASA SPoRT-LIS data showing a swath of soil moisture values near the 95th percentile stretching from near DEQ to near MEM. Given moisture parameters and the potential for a few to several inches or more of QPF, flash flooding will be likely, some of which could be significant. The White River Basin has several points still in flood as of this morning with worsening hydrologic conditions expected within that basin and new flooding possible in other basins. There is some lingering uncertainty with the QPF footprint with the latest guidance hinting at a NWwrd shift in max amounts, so further adjustments one way or another are possible.

Reed also mentioned that his you tube account was hacked

Looks like the 15% hatched tornado was moved a tad bit west and closer to DFW.

Very strong wording from the local Little Rock NWS. Don't see that very often

We might want to add Wednesday March 1st to this thread as well. Been seeing where this could possibly go enhanced.

How far west is the NAM showing

Pete Delkus 1h · Early heads up - strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday. Areas most likely to see the strong storms will be east of I-35 during the afternoon Thursday. Timing/impacts will likely be adjusted in the days to come. Keep checking back in with us! #wfaaweather

There has been plenty of chatter going on about this system, but this board seems to be very quite so far. I'm very surprised.

Hatched tornado stays at 10%, but the location has expanded into a more larger area over the past couple of update.

Hatched hail added in the latest update

Is there a possibility where this changes and we see a high risk issued? If I remember correct there would only need to be a 10% hatched for tornadoes and or hail for this to go high risk?

Mesoscale Discussion 0150 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Areas affected...central North Texas into the south-central and southeastern Oklahoma vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152120Z - 152215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Risk for severe storms -- including potential for a a tornado or two -- is forecast to steadily increase over the next few hours as the atmosphere destabilizes. WW issuance will likely be required in the next one to two hours. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows shallow low-level moisture continuing to stream north-northwestward across central and southeastern Texas toward North Texas. Dewpoints are now into the mid 50s at the Red River, and near 60 into the Metroplex, but with a fairly substantial cap still evident in a recent (21Z) FWD (Fort Worth) RAOB. Still, as the upper system now centered near the Four Corners (per WV imagery) continues moving eastward, increasing ascent (hinted at by high-based CU developing over western North Texas) should continue to erode the cap, eventually resulting in surface-based storm development. With steep lapse rates evident aloft, and a kinematic environment featuring flow that veers from south-southeasterly to southwesterly through 6km, and increases substantially in magnitude through this layer, potential for supercells -- particularly with initial storm development -- and an attendant risk for large hail is evident. Where truly surface-based storms may develop -- i.e. mainly from the Red River vicinity southward, a tornado or two will also be possible.

Now it's gone. From the new day 2 update

Update from the NWS FWD National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 104 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023 ...New Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Afternoon through Thursday Night/ Widespread freezing rain continues this afternoon across much of North Texas and is largely tied to increasing warm advection around 700 mb. Most of this activity is falling out of clouds based around 8000 ft. Beneath all of this, incoming solar radiation and a lack of cold advection is working on some of the ice pack on area roads and we are seeing melting despite air temperatures in the upper 20s. While this may lead to a false sense of relief, there is still a substantial threat for considerable icing, especially as we head into the evening hours. High resolution guidance and current radar trends show a large area of precipitation extending well back to the southwest of San Angelo. This activity will increase in coverage through the evening and as we do lose incoming solar radiation, additional icing will commence on trees and roads/bridges. So, we`re not done with the ice storm just yet and we`ll leave the current warning configuration unchanged with the greatest impacts still expected west of I-35. We launched a balloon just a little bit ago, and the dry layer beneath this cloud deck is in the process of saturating and will continue to support freezing rain, especially into the late evening hours. As the upper trough approaches later tonight, widespread precip will begin to spread south and east as temperatures steadily creep up to or slightly above freezing. Rain will generally prevail across the southeast counties while some freezing rain will continue across the northwest into early Thursday morning. We`ll continue to go slightly cooler than guidance for highs on Thursday as abundant cloud cover will persist. The core of the upper trough will track right across North Texas during the afternoon. Strong dynamic forcing and cooling aloft will likely lead to additional precipitation, primarily rain, although some wet slushy snow may mix in across the northern half of the CWA. Dunn

Pete mentioned this from his facebook in response to the melting Pete Delkus 40m · READ CLOSELY: Yes, some melting is happening due to "warm" rain in places and limiting ice amounts. However, temps are below freezing and will stay below freezing as widespread rain continues to fall. Threat for re-freezing and icing continues, especially this evening- tonight.

It's the Josey and Rosemead station from weather underground. It has fluctuated from 27-34 on and off.

Big blob showing up on radar out in West Texas. If that is heading to DFW that could be some bad news later on.