weatherextreme

Adding the 28th Latest outlook for today shows an upgrade to enhanced 5 % tor 30 % hatched sig hail THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible across parts of west and central Texas into eastern New Mexico, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...TX... A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is in place today across much of central and southwest TX, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s, pockets of strong heating, and very steep mid-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings across the region show afternoon MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg and little cap. This should result in the development of scattered intense supercells along the various boundaries analyzed over this area and along the dryline over southeast NM and southwest TX. Deep layer shear will favor rotating storms, and straight-line hodographs suggest left-moving supercells will also occur. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. However, the primary threat appears to be very large hail. Therefore, have opted to add an ENH risk area and a 30%/sig hail probability area. Storms should maintain severe threat through much of the evening as they spread southeastward toward central TX, with an increasing risk of bowing structures and damaging winds. ...LA/MS to VA/MD... A large upper trough is moving across the MS/OH valleys, with relatively strong westerly flow aloft over much of the TN Valley, Appalachians, and Mid Atlantic region. Considerable cloud cover is limiting heating over many areas, but there appears to be a corridor from southern MS into parts of NC/VA where at least pockets of heating/destabilization will occur. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected across this entire region, with the potential for robust updrafts/downdrafts in those areas of slightly better CAPE. The area of most concern is in vicinity of a the Chesapeake Bay where backed low level winds and ample moisture are present. This area is very small, with inconsistent CAM solutions on coverage of storms, but there is some concern for a more organized storm or two late this afternoon in the region posing a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. ...MT... A few thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening over southeast MT along a cold front moving into the area. Instability will be quite weak, but there is the potential of a strong storm or two producing hail and gusty winds.

Nathan steaming live StormChaserIRL - Twitch

Looks like the SPC is thinking the same . From the latest Day 1 update SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Great Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Very large hail, significant severe wind gusts, and some tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Great Plains to Mid Mississippi Valley... Seasonally strong upper trough will shift east across the northern Plains today with the primary mid-level jet expected to translate across NE/IA into northern IL during the afternoon. This feature will be partly responsible for maintaining an MCS that has developed over the central Plains early this morning. This activity is forecast to spread into IA/northern MO by the start of the day1 period ahead of the primary surface low. The extent of the cold pool will likely prove significant and should prove instrumental in forcing a convective outflow well ahead of the main synoptic front. As such, leading edge of this MCS may not weaken appreciably as it propagates across northern MO into west-central IL. Damaging winds are the main threat with this MCS. Of more concern will be the pre-frontal air mass along the I-44 corridor extending across southwest MO through the body of OK into the TX South Plains. Latest radar data continues to indicate lingering convection along the KS/OK border as well as over the eastern TX Panhandle. It's not entirely clear how much of this convection will be present at daybreak. Several HREF members suggest at minimum there will be left over convective debris, or more likely some weak convection at 12z. This activity would likely propagate east and possibly reintensify as boundary-layer heating reduces CINH by early afternoon. If convection is not too disruptive, then a more buoyant air mass may advance into southeastern KS/southwestern MO; however, the most likely area for strong instability will remain across the southern Plains. This is the most concerning portion of the outlook as thunderstorms will develop along the early-day outflow boundaries, dryline, and synoptic front. While low-level flow should veer a bit into the southwest across this region, adequate turning/bulk shear will be present for supercells. Have lowered the tornado probabilities a bit across this region but not due to the lack of buoyancy/shear. At this time there is too much uncertainty regarding the evolution of the early-day convection and the possibility for disrupting cold pool. When these boundaries are identified later today there may be a region where higher potential for a few tornadoes can be addressed. Otherwise, severe thunderstorms will develop across a large corridor from the TX South Plains, through OK into MO. Very large hail will be noted across the southern Plains with supercells and upscale growth into an MCS is possible by early evening. If an MCS does evolve, damaging winds would become a legitimate concern as this activity propagates toward the Red River.

Nice light show going on here coloradoweathernut - Twitch

Nathan picked up a 2nd tog StormChaserIRL - Twitch

StormChaserIRL - Twitch

Adair's stream. He just confirmed a TOG https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair

https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress.html

Upgrade to moderate for Wednesday 45 % sig wind and hail prob 10 % Tor probs Pretty close to a high-risk day probabilities. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening with a threat for large and destructive hail, very damaging winds, and tornadoes. Scattered severe is also expected across the southern High Plains and much of the northeastern US where damaging winds are the primary concern. ...Central/southern Plains... Early this morning a well-defined upper trough was located over eastern WA/OR. This feature is forecast to translate into eastern MT/WY by 27/00z with diffluent high-level flow expected to spread across the northern High Plains region during the afternoon. In response, a surface low should develop over southern WY by 18z then settle southeast along a frontal zone draped across the central Plains. Favorable low-level trajectories across KS/southern NE will force higher boundary layer moisture into the NE Panhandle prior to forecast maximum temperatures. In fact, isolated supercells will likely initiate across parts of eastern WY along the western fringe of higher-moisture content where large-scale forcing will be maximized. Latest thinking is boundary-layer heating will be most intense across southeast WY/southern NE Panhandle, south along the NM/TX border region. NAM forecast sounding for BFF at 21z exhibits around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE with surface-6km bulk shear on the order of 40kt. Environmental conditions appear very favorable for discrete supercells early in the convective cycle ahead of the surface low into northeast CO. With time, numerous supercell structures should grow upscale as they mature along/south of the aforementioned frontal zone. Very large hail will likely be noted with this early activity, and SRH values certainly suggest tornadoes will be a threat until storm mergers lead to a potentially significant MCS downstream over southern NE/northern KS. If an intense MCS does evolve, as seems possible, very damaging winds could be noted along the leading edge of this cluster as it surges east-southeast along the nose of a pronounced LLJ. Isolated severe thunderstorms will also develop south across the High Plains into west TX where strong afternoon heating will once again allow surface parcels to reach their convective temperatures by late afternoon. Modest southwesterly flow aloft will support supercells, and large hail/wind are the greatest risks along the southern dryline. Northeast... Moist plume characterized by PW values in excess of 1.5 inches currently extends across the lower MS/lower OH Valley into lower MI. Deep trajectories appear favorable for some of this moisture to be drawn northeast across the OH Valley into southern QC ahead of the primary front that will approach the international border by early evening. However, strong boundary-layer heating will be observed well ahead of the front where moisture content should be slightly drier, but noteworthy and sufficient for robust convection. Only minor changes have been made to earlier severe probabilities across this region and that is to extend the SLGT Risk south into VA where higher moisture content/stronger instability will be noted. Forecast soundings suggest scattered thunderstorms may develop across upstate NY, southwest across western PA into eastern OH by 16-17z as surface temperatures warm through the 70s to near 80F. This activity will then spread/develop east across the Hudson Valley into portions of New England. Farther south, surface temperatures should warm into the upper 80s across the Delmarva region and this higher buoyancy may result in a greater risk of hail from eastern PA into northern VA as thunderstorms develop a bit later during the mid afternoon. Otherwise, damaging winds will likely be the greatest risk with multicellular updrafts that intensify during the heat of the day ahead of the short-wave trough.

Jeff just mentioned that he looking for an enhanced/moderate for Wednesday. Sig Tornadoes

Looks like Jeff might have something trying to get going on stream

Jeff reporting major damage from his stream

Added.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance is coming into better agreement in the depiction of a mid-level shortwave trough over the north-central U.S. on Thursday (day 4). Additionally, it appears that a lower-latitude belt of stronger flow will overspread the TX Panhandle and OK where a moist/unstable sector will reside. There is uncertainty about the eastern extent of a moist/unstable airmass across the mid MS Valley and the probable weakening of an MCS Thursday morning. Nonetheless, it seems prudent to introduce a 15-percent severe risk for Thursday for much of OK northeast into southeast KS and into MO. Uncertainty increases by Friday (day 5) owing to convective influences in the prior days across the central U.S. The upper-air pattern begins to appear less favorable for organized severe storms by this weekend but model variability is relatively high at this point.

6 officially reported from the FWD NWS

Whitney is on the Lubbock storm https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/whitney.owens.html

Looks like Mikey might have something on his stream. https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/mikey.gribble.html

May 17, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook .THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the southern Plains later this afternoon and overnight. Very large hail and a few tornadoes will be concentrated across northwest Texas. ...Southern Plains... Well-defined upper low is currently located over the lower CO River Valley. This feature is forecast to eject into the southern Rockies by 18/00z as 50kt 500mb flow translates across the northern Baja Peninsula into portions of northwestern TX by late evening. In response, lee surface low should hold across southeastern NM which will ensure moist southeasterly low-level flow is maintained across the TX South Plains into far northeastern NM. Additionally, a weak MCS has evolved over northwest TX early this morning with considerable amount of trailing precipitation extending across the TX Panhandle into western KS. The leading edge of this complex should propagate slowly southeast through daybreak, likely spreading into portions of central TX by sunrise. This rain-cooled air mass should contribute to easterly low-level component across the TX South Plains and a remnant convective boundary may be evident in its wake over northwestern TX. If so, this boundary should serve as a primary corridor for focused hail-producing supercells. Latest thinking is intense surface heating will be noted across far west TX into southeast NM such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z. Forecast sounding at MAF by 22z exhibits a 90F surface temperature with negligible CINH. It appears thunderstorms should develop along the dryline near the NM border, south across west TX, then spread/develop northeast along a potential rain-cooled boundary. Very steep lapse rates through a deep layer, extreme MLCAPE, and ample shear for slow-moving supercells all favor very large hail. As mid-level flow increases during the evening, there is reasonable confidence that numerous hail-producing supercells could emerge into an MCS that will propagate toward north-central TX. Prior to this, some tornado threat will be noted both early in the convective cycle, and along the aforementioned rain-cooled boundary where shear will be maximized.

Enhanced up for Monday. Upgraded for hail with 5% Tor probs

Trinity river will be one to watch. If DFW gets flooding rains, the area around the Trinity river typically will have big problems.

Got a lowering close to College station per this channel https://www.facebook.com/kbtxmedia/videos/764402714445341/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 128 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021 The National Weather Service in League City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Houston County in southeastern Texas... Eastern Madison County in southeastern Texas... West central Walker County in southeastern Texas... * Until 200 PM CDT. * At 128 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles east of Madisonville, moving north at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Houston, eastern Madison and west central Walker Counties.

30% hatched hail for today