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000 FXUS64 KFWD 042015 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 155 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023/ /Through Wednesday/ This afternoon: An isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out, although that potential remains low. All modes of severe will be possible if a storm does develop. Tonight: A higher threat for severe weather will materialize. Once again, all modes of severe weather will be possible. The greatest threat will mainly be east of I-35, where the greatest moisture will reside. A deepening longwave trough continues to move eastward this early Tuesday afternoon. Strong southerly flow beneath a strong capping inversion is keeping partly to mostly cloudy conditions throughout much of the region. A few convective attempts have already occurred, but as expected, the stout capping inversion is keeping storms at bay. Latest ACARS soundings show minimal change to the inversion over the last several hours and generally correlates fairly well with the forecast soundings showing a stronger cap. A few showers beneath the cap continue to develop, but overall, the potential for any one shower to break through the cap is low. **IF**, however, an updraft does break the cap, large hail, damaging winds and a tornado will all be possible. Storm chances will briefly drop around/shortly after sunset as surface heating gradually wanes. The next focus for additional convective activity will be an incoming cold front, expected to arrive around midnight within our northwestern counties. The combination of the front and a subtle shortwave emerging out of Mexico will lead to the rapid blossoming of thunderstorms along the leading edge of the front. Steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, high instability and effective shear around 55 knots will promote the development of embedded supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two. As the front moves through, the thunderstorm potential will come to an end. Our far southeastern continues will be the last to see see the front, passing through closer to 8 am tomorrow morning.

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Areas affected...portions of North Texas...eastern Oklahoma...western Arkansas into southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 042006Z - 042200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose a risk initially for hail across portions of North TX/OK into portions of western AR. Additional development along the dryline is possible in eastern KS and western MO. Uncertainty on the exact timing and location of storm development is very high. Trends are being monitored for a possible weather watch. DISCUSSION...As of 2000 UTC, afternoon observations showed a broad plume of cirrus, associated with a deep western US trough, overspreading a warming and moistening air mass across much of the ArkLaTex and southern Plains. Within the broad cirrus, several CI attempts have been noted along and east of a confluence band ahead of the dryline in North TX. Surface temperatures near 80 and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F are supporting moderate instability with MLCAPE of 2000 J/kg. With the main trough lagging to the west, forcing for ascent is rather nebulous over much of the region through the afternoon. This is evident in SPC mesoanalysis which shows considerable inhibition still in place below a robust EML. Despite the inhibition, strong flow aloft is supporting long elongated hodographs with effective shear of 50-60 kt favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail. Weaker low-level shear may limit the initial tornado threat if supercells are able to mature. However as forcing increases toward the evening, a greater threat for tornadoes may evolve. Recent visible and radar trends show several weak, likely elevated updrafts over the Red river are persisting despite the inhibition. As updrafts cluster and shift north, a more sustained/sustained storm may evolve from these initial attempts. Diurnal heating/weak ascent may also support additional, isolated development around the dryline from east/northeastern OK into eastern KS. Poor handling of the situation by Hi-res guidance and nebulous forcing lends low confidence in additional convective development and the overall evolution. None the less, the strongly sheared and destabilizing air mass appears conditionally favorable for large to very large hail and possibly tornadoes late this afternoon into the evening. A greater threat will likely evolve overnight as the main trough ejects eastward. Trends will be monitored or a possible weather watch this afternoon but uncertainty is high.

Looks like FWD is still looking at dryline storms and westward/southward extent of the threat for tomorrow. (Imagine isn't copying) This can be seen from the FWD NWS site.

Looks like # 3 so far DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1255 PM CDT MON APR 03 2023VALID 041200Z - 051200Z...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNIOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURISOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX......SUMMARYA LARGE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOONINTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS INTO THEMISSOURI AND MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. STRONG TORNADOES ANDPARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. BOTH AFTERNOON ANDOVERNIGHT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS VARIOUS REGIONS, INCLUDING THE RISK OF DANGEROUS NIGHTTIME TORNADOES...SYNOPSISA LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ONTUESDAY, WITH AN UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM WY TO NORTHERN MN BYWEDNESDAY MORNING, DEEPENING AFTER 00Z. MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGINGWILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A STRONG 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET MAXWILL BE POSITIONED FROM NM INTO WESTERN KS DURING THE DAY, WITH ANINTENSIFYING JET CORE TUESDAY NIGHT FROM KS INTO IA. JUST AHEAD OFTHE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH/JET, A LEADING SPEED MAX WILL STRENGTHENFROM OK INTO KS AND MO DURING THE DAY, PERHAPS WITH A SUBTLE LOBE OFCOOLING ALOFT.AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN CO TUESDAYMORNING, AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS KS DURING THE DAY,TRANSLATING EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT. THIS LOW WILL SHIFTINTO IA BY EVENING, AND INTO WI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW,A PROMINENT WARM FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH, BEGINNING THE DAYFROM NORTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL IL, AND REACHING NEAR I-80 FROM IAINTO NORTHERN IL BY 00Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTOSOUTHERN WI AND WESTERN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF THE SURFACELOW. BEHIND THE LOW, A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE AN EASTWARD PUSH DURINGTHE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS IA, NORTHWEST MO AND EASTERNKS.SOUTH OF THE LOW, A DRYLINE WILL STRETCH FROM EASTERN KS INTOCENTRAL OK AND NORTH TX AT 00Z, AND MAY BECOME STATIONARY OR EVENBACK WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE LATE EVENING ANDPRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH.GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PRECEDING THEUPPER TROUGH, A VERY WIDE WARM SECTOR WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SURFACELOW AND DRYLINE EASTWARD WELL EAST OF THE MS RIVER, WITH UPPER 60S FDEWPOINTS COMMON FROM EASTERN OK AND AR SOUTHWARD. THE COMBINATIONOF AN EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR AND STRONG SHEAR, FOR LONG DURATION ANDIN VARIOUS FORCING REGIMES, SUGGESTS THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHERIS LIKELY. HOWEVER, SUBTLETIES REGARDING TIMING WITH REGARD TO THEDIURNAL CYCLE, CAPPING, AND CONFLICTING MODEL OUTPUT WILL MAKE THISPREDICTION CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY WHEN WEIGHING POTENTIAL IMPACTSTO LIFE AND PROPERTY...IA...NORTHERN MO...IL...SOUTHERN WI - DAYTIMETHE AREA NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND LATER IN LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHTHOURS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A FAVORED AREA FOR SUPERCELLSAND TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FROM NORTHERN MO INTO IADURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE WARM.LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES, AS WITHOVER 300 M2/S2 SRH AND MUCAPE PERHAPS UP TO 3000 J/KG. THE STEEPLAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL MAXIMIZE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AS WELL, RESULTINGIN STRONG TORNADOES. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST FARTHER NORTHEAST INTOSOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL INTO THE NIGHT AS THE WARM AND UNSTABLEAIR WITH THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH WITH THIS STRONGSYSTEM...NORTHEAST TX INTO AR AND INTO MO - OVERNIGHTCONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RARE AND DANGEROUS OVERNIGHT TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS, AND A MODERATE RISK HAS BEENINTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED DURINGTHE DAY, AS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE BUILDS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILLEXIST ABOVE THE CAPPING LAYER, WHICH WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONGOVERNIGHT DUE TO ROBUST MOISTURE. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROMTHE WEST, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG PROVIDING THETA-EADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO ERUPTAFTER 06Z, AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO 08Z FROM SOUTHWEST MO INTO WESTERNAR AND INTO NORTHEAST TX. HODOGRAPHS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR TORNADICSUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 400 M2/S2. FURTHER, STEEP LAPSERATES ALOFT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR STRONG TORNADOES, AND ALONG TRACKED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RARE CASE WHERE THE FRONT MAY ACT MORE LIKE A DRYLINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH VEERING AT 850 MB BEING MORE GRADUAL. CAPPINGIS MOST LIKELY TO LIMIT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE THREAT FORSOUTHERN AREAS NEAR LA...JEWELL.. 04/03/2023

Is it me or is the new day 2 update coming in very late : Edit. Day 2 updated

Added 4/3 for potential sleeper North/Central Texas... Moderate to strong buoyancy and 50+ kt of deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable supercell environment along/just ahead of a dryline late this afternoon and early evening over parts of north/central TX. Near-neutral mid-level heights with minor downstream ridging is expected across the dryline. This area will also be well removed from a deepening upper trough across the western CONUS. Low-level convergence along the dryline should remain weak, but could be relatively maximized in the early evening across central TX as the dryline starts to retreat. Some 12Z convection-allowing models suggest a thunderstorm or two may briefly develop. However, uncertainty remains high regarding a particular location. Any sustained supercell would pose a conditional risk of all severe hazards, but large hail is likely if a thunderstorm can form and be sustained. Given the uncertainty in whether any convection will initiate given the negligible large-scale ascent, will maintain low severe probabilities with this update. But, observational and short-term model trends will be closely monitored for a possible upgrade to Slight Risk at 20Z, if warranted.

Day 2 Mod out with split 15/10% Tor. Almost a repeat of the previous outbreak Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI....CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night across the lower Missouri Valley into southern portions of the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into portions of the Mid South. These could pose a risk for a few strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified mid-level ridging over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific gradually becomes suppressed, models indicate that downstream troughing will broaden from the Great Basin into the Mississippi Valley. This will be lead by a vigorous short wave trough, which is forecast to be accompanied by continuing strong surface cyclogenesis from the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest, and building downstream mid-level ridging across the Upper Ohio Valley into Ontario, as well as across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into Southeast. An intensifying southwesterly mid/upper jet streak (including speeds in excess of 100 kt at 500 mb) nosing across the central Great Plains through Upper Midwest will contribute to strong deep-layer shear within the warm sector of the cyclone. At the same time, intensification of southerly lower-level flow (to 50-70+ kt around 850 mb) likely will contribute to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. This could potentially contribute to an environment conducive to supercells and organizing lines or clusters capable of producing strong tornadoes and damaging winds, where large-scale forcing for ascent and thermodynamic profiles can become favorable. However, among a number of substantive lingering uncertainties, the quality of the boundary-layer moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico remains in question. Due to (at least initially) relatively shallow boundary-layer depth, downward mixing of drier air might impact sizable pockets of the potentially broad warm sector through the day, based on model output. Also, ahead of the mid/upper troughing, destabilization associated with large-scale ascent and an influx of high-level moisture from the subtropical Pacific may contribute to convective development which tends to saturate and stabilize lapse rates down into the mid-levels, across much of the Ozark Plateau into middle Mississippi Valley. While it appears that this will not completely erode the capping elevated mixed-layer air, thickening cloud cover aloft may inhibit surface heating and suppress potential thunderstorm development in the absence of lift to overcome the inhibition. ...Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley... Both the latest NAM and Rapid Refresh appear increasingly suggestive that the dryline could surge east-northeastward across southwestern Iowa and northwestern/west central Missouri, at least above the surface, by mid to late afternoon, in response to the progression of at least one speed maximum within the mid-level flow. Model output generally indicates that largest CAPE will become focused ahead of this feature, and south of the warm front advancing northward across central Iowa/northern Illinois during the late afternoon. And the dryline might provide a focus for sustained discrete supercell development with the potential to produce strong tornadoes while propagating northeastward across northeastern Missouri and southeastern Iowa into northwestern and west central Illinois through early evening. In the wake of this activity, as the cold front begins to overtake the dryline and advance southeastward, various model output continues to suggest that the evolution of an organizing line or cluster of storms is possible. This may pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes while propagating east-southeastward across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity into Tuesday night. Farther south, developments initially along the dryline and then ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front remain a bit more unclear. However, there has been a persistent signal within the model output that a narrow corridor of more substantive boundary-layer moistening could provide a focus for enhanced severe weather potential by Tuesday evening. It is possible that associated destabilization may become aligned with the strong deep-layer mean flow, possibly allowing for the evolution of one or two long track supercells, ahead of a developing squall line.

Looks like a big sporting day in DFW along with a Taylor Swift concert all starting around 6 PM central time.

From a local DFW met Pete Delkus 28m · Please read! There's a severe weather risk tomorrow. Please make sure you stay weather aware. Latest data tonight suggest the potential for a higher risk of severe weather than our current level 2/slight risk. If this gets updated/upgraded tonight, I will share it. #wfaaweather

Some strong wording from FWD National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 808 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight through Sunday Night/ Another nice evening is in store for North and Central Texas, but this will quickly change by early Sunday morning as a potent upper level disturbance approaches, bringing an increasing threat for severe thunderstorms. The rest of tonight will be quiet with passing clouds and temperatures falling into the 50s. A stalled frontal boundary across South Texas will begin to lift northward overnight in response to pressure falls in the Plains ahead of the aforementioned upper disturbance. The disturbance is currently located across southwest Arizona and will spread into West Texas Sunday morning. Ahead of the shortwave, a surge of Gulf moisture will overspread North Texas by midday with dewpoints climbing into the mid 60s. Strong low/mid level warm advection should lead to a blossoming of elevated convection late Sunday morning into early afternoon mainly off to our northwest. Very steep mid level lapse rates should support a severe hail risk with this initial activity. As we get into the afternoon hours though, a well defined warm sector will become established across much of North Texas, characterized by strong instability (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) and deep layer shear. The timing of the shortwave will be optimal as well, with the strongest synoptic forcing for ascent overspreading North Texas during the mid afternoon to early evening hours. This should yield a window (~between 4-8 pm) where some potentially significant severe weather could occur across parts of the region. Most of the high resolution guidance is in decent agreement with the initial elevated convection developing off to the northwest then moving east into the early afternoon. During the afternoon, there is an increasing potential for more discrete surface based convection to develop across North Texas within the warm sector. This activity should be forced at least partially by an eastward surging dryline. The dryline should impinge on our western counties during the mid afternoon hours and there is solid agreement among the guidance that there will be a decent bulge on the leading edge (Eastland/Stephens Counties) in response to a band of stronger low/mid level westerly winds. In addition, the lee side surface low never really ejects eastward, and remains nearly stationary across southwest Kansas and the OK panhandle. This results in the near surface flow across parts of North Texas remaining backed longer than would normally be the case with a rapidly moving system. Surface based storms appear most likely from mid afternoon into the early evening hours and would likely quickly become supercells given the favorable parameter space. While large hail and damaging winds will certainly be possible, there also appears to be an increasing threat for tornadoes, particularly in an area from Mineral Wells to Fort Worth to Hillsboro to Stephenville. This area east of the dryline bulge appears to have the best combination of strong instability, increasing deep layer shear, increasing synoptic forcing for ascent, and is most likely to maintain a favorable low level wind profile. It also appears to be the area least likely to have favorable warm sector air disrupted by elevated convection. Forecast soundings between 22-00Z show an uncapped thermal profile with strengthening low level flow and increasingly curved hodographs into the evening hours. 0-1 km helicity increases to around 300 m2/s2 and the significant tornado parameter peaks between 3-6 to the southwest of the Metroplex by 6 pm. This favorable low level instability and shear profile suggests that the threat for tornadoes will increase, particularly with any discrete storms that track from west to east or slightly south of east where they can maintain a healthy ingestion of streamwise vorticity. We`ll continue to monitor this threat closely, but anyone with outside interests should closely pay attention for rapidly changing weather on Sunday.

SPC with the slight risk for N TX Reed Timmer, PhD @ReedTimmerAccu Targeting west of DFW tomorrow PM sleeper tornado setup 4:51 PM · Apr 1, 2023 · 61.5K Views Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ACROSS NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible during the day tomorrow, mainly across north Texas. ...North TX and vicinity through the day... In the wake of a pronounced midlevel trough now moving over the OH Valley/lower Great Lakes, a front will stall along the Gulf coast. Upstream, a shortwave trough now near northern Baja will progress eastward to the southern Plains tomorrow afternoon. In response to the approach of this trough and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains will result in strengthening southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection during the day across TX. The increasing low-level moisture beneath the eastward extent of a elevated mixed layer plume will support substantial destabilization during the day across north TX. Clusters of mainly elevated storms are probable during the day in the zone of stronger low-level warm advection across northwest TX into southern OK, with sufficient MUCAPE/lapse rates for occasional large hail. Farther south, there will be a few hour window of opportunity for supercells rooted near or at the surface within the southern fringe of the stronger forcing for ascent, close to the surface warm front around mid afternoon. Mid-upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and surface heating in cloud breaks and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will drive MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg along the warm front, with sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length and low-level shear/hodograph curvature for supercells with all hazards. These threats will be focused along the warm front from about 20-00z, with the threat for surface-based supercells diminishing during the evening with passage of the midlevel trough. Otherwise, clusters of slightly elevated storms will spread eastward toward northwest LA/southwest AR and slowly weaken early tomorrow night.

That watch goes to 7 AM. Woah

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northern Mississippi Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday morning from Midnight until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms, including a few supercells capable of strong (EF2+) tornadoes, will persist in areas previously covered by tornado watch 97 past its original expiration time. The threat also will extend farther east into more of Alabama and Tennessee overnight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles south southwest of Tupelo MS to 50 miles northeast of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS

Something going on with Brad's stream. Not sure what they are doing ( Just tuned in) https://youtu.be/CNHQQ2BnEeQ

Brett following a PDS storm https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair

Jeff on he Tunica storm as well

Been mentioned thart Brett is looking at the tornado targeting the Tunica casinos https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair

Couple tornado warned storms heading towards Memphis

Tornado emergency issued for Covington

Twin tornadoes confirmed by the met