weatherextreme

Mesoscale Discussion 0646 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Areas affected...parts of central and north Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281725Z - 282000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon with convective initiation expected between 2-3pm near the triple point. Large to giant hail (1-3 inches in diameter), severe gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes are possible over central TX. Large hail and severe gusts are possible farther north over North Texas. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a stratocumulus field near and east of I-35 from San Antonio northward through Waco. This cloud feature is located within a plume of richer low-level moisture (ranging from the lower 60s north to upper 60s south) advancing north in association with a warm front. Strong heating is occurring near and south of a triple point 35 mi east of Abilene to areas southward along and east of a dryline where temperatures are rising through the 80s. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs by mid-late afternoon near the warm frontal zone with a very unstable airmass (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) located from the warm front south-southwestward into the Hill Country. As the cap erodes from the early into the mid afternoon, explosive thunderstorm development is expected initially near the triple point with storms rapidly becoming supercellular. Large to giant hail is forecast with this initial activity with a tornado risk probably developing before additional storms and convective coalescence lead to upscale growth into the early evening. The tornado risk will probably lessen upon full transition to linear modes. Farther north near the Metroplex and areas along I-20, weaker buoyancy and less favorable hodographs according to forecast soundings, will limit the severe risk to large hail and severe gusts.

Southward shift in severe with the latest outlook (From DFW)

Brett on the same storm https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair

Brad Arnold just stated he has a lowering on stream https://youtu.be/Fu5c9VYz4_I

Brad might be on that same wall cloud https://youtu.be/Fu5c9VYz4_I

Jason Cooley stream showing some rotation

Reed following the storm out towards Abilene. On the boundary

DFW been taken out of the main threat zone. Shifted South

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 169 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercells capable of producing multiple tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging/severe winds are expected to develop and spread southeastward this afternoon and evening. Some of the tornadoes could be strong, and damaging winds will likely become a greater concern this evening as thunderstorms grow upscale into a bowing cluster. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Brownwood TX to 50 miles north of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 168... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28035.

NWS Fort Worth @NWSFortWorth 1:40 PM: The potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will maximize south of I-20 this afternoon/evening. Potential for severe weather has decreased along/north of I-20, however isolated hail up to the size of quarters will still be possible. #txwx #dfwwx #ctxwx

Mesoscale Discussion 0623 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Areas affected...central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 261820Z - 262045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Convective initiation is forecast over central TX by mid afternoon coincident with the leading edge of ascent/cirrus nosing into the Big Country. Additional storms may develop near the outflow/warm front intersection. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field south of an outflow boundary and east of a dryline. Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s deg F with dewpoints in the mid 50s near San Angelo and upper 60s near the warm front. Forecast soundings show minimal convective inhibition remaining across central TX as the boundary layer continues to warm/destabilize. Water-vapor imagery shows the leading edge of cirrus and implied ascent spreading quickly east across the Permian Basin and into the Big Country. As a result, convective initiation is expected in the next hour or so near Abilene. Once the remaining cap is breached, expecting explosive updraft growth with a hail risk quickly developing. Effective shear 40-50 kt and MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg will rapidly promote supercell development. Large to giant hail (diameters 1 to 3+ inches) is expected. A tornado risk will likely focus near the warm front where relatively backed low-level flow augmenting hodograph size, and surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are less than 20 deg will reside. A strong tornado may occur if an established supercell(s) can interact favorably with the warm frontal zone. ..Smith/Gleason.. 04/26/2023

Mesoscale Discussion 0618 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Areas affected...North TX into far southern OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260418Z - 260615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible overnight. Watch issuance is considered unlikely. DISCUSSION...A strengthening low-level jet (as noted on recent KDYX and KFWD VWPs) is likely contributing to a recent increase in elevated convection across north-central TX. Meanwhile, a cluster of elevated convection associated with the remnant of an earlier long-lived supercell is moving eastward across western north TX. While increasing MLCINH will tend to suppress the redevelopment of surface-based convection, MUCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kt will support some modestly organized elevated storms. A tendency for storm clustering may limit the threat to some extent (compared to more discrete development), but isolated hail will be possible with the strongest storms overnight. With the magnitude and coverage of this threat expected to remain relatively limited, watch issuance is considered unlikely at this time.

^^^This post might end up aging like milk. Guessing that the SPC took off the original forecast (This was for the Tuesday forecast) due to it being more of a conditional threat. Then they decided to add it back to the forecast when they had more confidence in the forecast?

Looks like that one bite the dust. Rip

PDS warning BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Little Rock AR 231 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Fulton County in north central Arkansas... Northern Sharp County in north central Arkansas... * Until 315 AM CDT. * At 230 AM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Franklin, or 9 miles northeast of Melbourne, moving northeast at 50 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying

Mesoscale Discussion 0475 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023 Areas affected...portions of central and northern AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 121... Valid 050703Z - 050830Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121 continues. SUMMARY...A potential tornadic supercell corridor is beginning to focus from near Russellville northeastward into southeast MO (thru 330am). A strong tornado is possible. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery over the past hour has shown further intensification of storms over north-central AR with the stronger storms acquiring transient supercell characteristics. Recent subjective surface mesoanalysis shows a moisture axis (upper 60s degree F dewpoints) extending from central AR north-northeastward into northern AR and immediately east of the ongoing storms. The presence of moderate buoyancy (1800 J/kg MLCAPE per the Batesville, AR RAP-model forecast sounding) and strongly sheared low levels, will support the potential for longer-lived supercells with episodic strengthening of the low-level mesocyclone and tornado potential. If one or more of the supercells continues to mature and strengthen, a strong tornado is possible.

3 tornado warned storms

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and northern Arkansas Southern Illinois Southeastern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday morning from 130 AM until 900 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and depth in a plume of low-level lift well ahead of the cold front, across parts of Arkansas, with additional development possible. The environment favors supercell potential and tornado risk with any convection that can root in the boundary layer on a sustained basis. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles south southwest of Batesville AR to 35 miles north northeast of Carbondale IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

I'm starting to think early in the day was the 'calm before the storm'. This overnight storm does have me concerned . Mesoscale Discussion 0469 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0846 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Areas affected...Northeastern Texas...south-central Arkansas...northwestern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 050146Z - 050345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring potential tornado threat over the next few hours. Watch may be needed within the hour. DISCUSSION...A conditional tornado threat is evolving across the Arklatex region. Currently, a cluster of cells near the Arklatex region have shown evidence of deepening updrafts with increasing echo top heights on radar. The environment across south-central Arkansas and northern Louisiana is conditionally supportive of strong tornadoes, given sampling of 0-1 km SRH around 300-400 J/kg and large, curved hodographs at SHV and LZK. RAP analysis shows STP around 4-5 across this region over the next few hours. Should this line of developing storms continue to intensify, a risk for strong tornadoes will be possible especially if semi-discrete cells can become established. A watch may be needed within the hour if trends show continue development with increasing intensity.

Lowering of a wall cloud per the chaser. Nothing on the ground as of yet https://www.twitch.tv/stormchaserirl

Reed is also on something

Chaser has something on stream. https://www.twitch.tv/stormchaserirl Sounded like sirens in the background