From FWD
There are some divergences in the computer models from Sunday and
beyond which I`ll address a little later, but there is actually
really good agreement in the main feature which is the ejection of
an upper trough across the Plains on Tuesday. Furthermore, all
models indicate unseasonably high low level moisture with
dewpoints in the 60s over the region Tuesday. Given the agreement
and pattern recognition, there is a fair amount of confidence in
saying there will be a dryline and a potential for severe
convection in the region Tuesday. Right now the uncertainty is
where the dry line will set up and whether it will be west or east
of the I-35 corridor. Obviously a western position would bring
more of the area into the fold for severe weather, while an
eastern position would be more typical of early Spring and limit
any severe threat to our eastern counties. Models seemingly are
favoring a western dryline position, but this doesn`t quite align
with climatology and lowers confidence in delineating a risk area
at this time. What is certain is that there will be ample wind
shear and sufficient instability in place ahead of the dry line so
it warrants our attention over the next few days.