janetjanet998

still a slight risk although noted metroplex threat .SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED. ..20Z UPDATE THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRIOR OUTLOOK ACROSS THIS AREA HAS BEEN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK REMAINS CONFINED BY A SHALLOW COLD AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OK. FOR MORE NEAR-TERM METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH ~2130Z) ON THE DEVELOPING SEVERE RISK ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX, SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 52. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF EAST TX IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW TO MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE METROPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONVECTION AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TX IN THE 00-03Z TIMEFRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY MADE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE 5% TORNADO PROBABILITIES IN/AROUND THE METROPLEX TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. ..GLEASON.. 01/15/2017

San Angelo radar is down 19z HRRR has almost discrete rotating cells over /mid central texas with decent Helicity swaths

SPC not to bullish with tornado potential MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 151857Z - 152130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SEVERE RISK, THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISCUSSION...ARCS OF CONVECTION ARE SPREADING EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX, WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG DCVA PRECEDING AN UPPER CYCLONE EMERGING OVER THE TX TRANS-PECOS REGION, AND AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ATTENDANT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM/DRY SLOT. ANTECEDENT CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MODIFY, WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND VICINITY. TWO-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2.0-3.5 MB HIGHLIGHT THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET, INDICATED BY AREA VAD WIND PROFILES. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER CYCLONE EMERGES OVER THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT, HIGHER THETA-E AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY -- PRESENTLY CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S -- WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD. WITH MODEST DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS, INFLOW FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCS OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SEVERE RISK -- AIDED BY 45-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR COMBINING WITH 500-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY -- WILL INCREASE IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME, AND DEVELOP EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD. A QUASI-LINEAR MODE MAY TEND TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SEVERE-WIND RISK. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE AN ISOLATED SEVERE-HAIL RISK -- PARTICULARLY WITH LINE-EMBEDDED/LEADING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO, THOUGH THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF LINE-RELATED OUTFLOW, COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING INCIPIENT STAGES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION, CAST DOUBT ON A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO RISK.

latest SPC outlook kickoff at 2140z game should be over by 0115z or so....unless there is a weather delay (lightning) ..PORTIONS OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MID/LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW NEARING THE EL PASO/FAR WEST TX VICINITY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD AND INCREASINGLY TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, 30-45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS (1-3 KM ABOVE GROUND LEVEL) WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT A SEASONALLY MOIST AIR MASS NORTHWARD, WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX LATE TODAY, WHILE SOME MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REACH PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND CONTINUED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY, PARTICULARLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND FAR SOUTHERN OK. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT INCREASINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AROUND MID-AFTERNOON INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX IN VICINITY OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST CAPPING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FRONT-PRECEDING SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY VICINITIES TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN THAT DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BOTH INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE/LINE-EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT LINEAR MODE NEAR THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY RISKS INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX.

5% TOR probs central texas ..SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS A MODIFYING WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN TX WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE NORTH AS A SWATH OF 35-50 KT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AND FURTHER STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. MODEL MEAN MIXING RATIOS APPEAR TOO MOIST COMPARED TO 12Z DEL RIO AND CORPUS CHRISTI OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION, A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS, REINFORCED BY ONGOING AND ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY, SHOULD LIMIT THE NORTHWEST ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR TO PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX. LARGEST BUOYANCY WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE DESTABILIZING NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MODIFIED WARM SECTOR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FURTHER EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST, WITH AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE PROBABLE BY LATE EVENING FROM PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OK THROUGH CENTRAL TX. 30-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, WHERE CONVECTION WOULD SEEMINGLY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO REMAIN DISCRETE, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VEER-BACK-VEER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE HODOGRAPH AROUND 700 MB. THIS MAY TEMPER A GREATER TORNADO RISK FROM BEING REALIZED. FARTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER, WHERE MODE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR WITH TIME, THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR NORTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND A CORRESPONDING DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF TORNADO RISK WILL EXTEND INTO OK TONIGHT.

death toll now 132 156 still missing

JoMO, how soon did the tornado hit after you made your last post on here

holy moly also it looks like the walmart was 1/2 demolished

Rueters reporting 1500 missing in Joplin ...but thats likely inflated..but still even 5% of that is 75 people also 6 deaths at the hospital

death toll now 116

ariel shots,,the first builing is/was a walmart supercenter http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110523/us_yblog_thelookout/terrifying-videos-of-missouri-twister-aftermath

more 00:05 20th street looking west ..large black tornado up the road 00:23 good will 00:26 arbys

this may be rogers hills chase tour..several have British accents they drive by the lowes store that got hit afterwards at 1:16 they seem to be driving south of Range line road..much of the area in the beginning of the video got destroyed then(which wold be north of lowes)

timestamps are not pacific....at least on my computer 515ish

death toll has risen to 313

no it clearly says 2.48 miles...another decimal point error? Or is this the same supercell and tornado that moved into AL and will get rated by a seperate office too? If its not the same tornado then we could have at least 3 EF5's , this one, N al if it is upgraded and I'm assuming the tucs/BHM one too

Is this the final number though or is this the same one that moved into northern AL?

several local on air mets were saying that indeed going by just the storm reports, but it is clear that the storm cycled and a new tornado MAY have formed just east of BHM ..but of course it's possible it could of merged with the old one.... The tornado was warpped in rain and the couplet weakned for a few scans before going nuts again

I;m just stiring the pot and was kidding. I could care less if some tard on a forum calls me stupid...but it's hard to tell intent on a message board I will delete that

do you have the break down between regions? i thought the earlier 263 didn't really add up becuase there were "only" 35-45 in the Tucs/BHM tornado(where were all the others)..that was until that report of 147 victims in the Northern AL Tornado

wow..this got deeper(more north) into the city then I thought. Thanks for taking the time to do that

because its my freaking house that's why. I own it and the ground..I don't need you or the government telling me if a need a freaking safe room in my own house becuase of some freak event. In you are talking about an apartment that you own and rent to other people..then perhaps ..earthqaukes are common in CA and affect a large area... getting hit by an EF4+ tornado is very very low This kind of stuff really irritates me... this is all I am going to say in this thread about this matter....unless we have a spin off thread for it

no thanks...if i don't want to build a safe room or shelter in my house then i shouldn't have too....

wow thats in the north part of the state too..not the Tucs/BHM monster

first air shots from Tucscaloosa look at thr 1 min mark..I count 12 muilti unit apartment complexes completely destroyed...perhaps student housing or the housing project http://www.abc3340.c...&autoStart=true 3:28 interesting too.... large slabs only perhaps a commerical area