Wurbus
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Another banger run for GFS incoming. CMC was also good and both models seem hellbent on bringing the polar vortex down after the 22nd. Not sold on that since they were also signaling that feature a few weeks ago, but if we can keep the pattern going, that is a win in my book.
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This was the full run. All of the additional snow after the current event was post 200 hours, so should be taken with a grain of salt.
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Took about 30 mins to get a dusting from when it started. My road is already covered, so not much melting at all. Temp down to 26 and DP up to 23 now.
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Finally seeing the first flurries here in the Cedar Bluff/Karns area in Knoxville. Temp at 28 and dewpoint at 18.
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I know everyone is focused on the current storm, but that was an absolute banger of a 6z GFS run.
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My temp drop seems to have leveled off around 23. DP still quite low though.
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Slight uptick on the snow average on the plumes across most of East TN. Generally about .2-.5 increase compared to 9z. I think most of that is due to slightly less mixing.
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ICON hammered the valley
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What is the difference between the ARW & NSSL on the HRW model? NSSL does have some WAA entering the valley toward the end of the run.
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Looks like snow means increased for most everyone compared to 15z on the SREF plumes. Closer to what they were at 9z this morning.
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Highs were in the 40's and 50's leading up to the event last year in Knoxville. Lows were in the uppers 20's or low 30's mostly.
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I noticed the 3pm plumes also came down about an inch average for KNX and Chattanooga decreased a fair amount as well.
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GEFS mean remains beefy, but the biggest amounts shifted from Chattanooga area to Arkansas and Memphis.
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Did the 0z CMC run? I don't see it available on pivotal or tropical tidbits.
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Let's all agree to toss it.
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Looks like some mixing issues or an energy transfer issue for the East.
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How was the 18z Euro?
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MRX posted this on Twitter about an hour ago.
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Let's hope the ICON leads the charge into a Happy Hour to remember!
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Still some lingering flurries in the east, but much beefier on that pass!
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18z ICON looks much healthier across the state
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The ECWF-AI had about .3-.4" of QPF for the whole state. Extreme southern counties were around .5".
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Like John said, it kinda falls apart over our area, but that turns into a monster for parts of the NE. 2'-3' of snow for parts of New Jersey and NYC. 969 low sitting just off the coast before it goes to sea.
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ICON has a light snow event across the state as it falls apart.
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Waking up to 0z Euro finally getting on board and a beautiful 6z GFS run!
