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About NovaTarHeel

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  • Location:
    Fairfax, VA

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  1. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Plain rain in fair oaks area. The wife and I are out and about in it. Slushy mess on the roads.
  2. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Sleet and/or rimmed flakes mixing in Fairfax now.
  3. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Wow SN+ now in Fairfax! Beautiful big flakes. Ripping!
  4. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Big ole snow flakes in fairfax. Mulch and ground struggling to accumulate though.
  5. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    From everything I’m reading, it’s looking like a shut out for all of Fairfax County? Nearest weatherbug site has us at 41/25. Guess I’ll grt out my rain boots instead.
  6. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    Then head to Charlestown and put $500 on black. im gonna have to chase this year it appears. Next snowstorm with 4”+ potential I’m gonna have to take your advice.
  7. I'm bored at work, having already mastered Machine Learning 101 and waiting for the next lesson to come out. So, I got to thinking about weather forecasting, and how machine learning can hopefully one day greatly improve it (if it hasn't already). Now, I'm definitely not a pro forecaster or meteorologist. In fact, I know very, very little about how anything works. Instead, all of my knowledge comes from reading on various forums with you experts (some real, some imagined). However, I've noticed something: Even though weather models in the last decade have made vast improvements, forecasts are still entirely reactionary based on the latest model. Forecasts, especially 3+ days out, swing back and forth. Weather models have done a great job of predicting some snowstorms (like Jan 2016) several days out, but too often they go from showing a HECS to rain, back to snow, then to sunny skies - usually every 6-12 hours. Forecasters then react to what the model has just shown, rather than predict what the next model run will look like. I know there are probably too many unknowns to ever truly predict the weather with great accuracy, but I'm curious to know, with the advances in Machine Learning and Data Analytics, what's in store for forecasting and weather modeling in the future? I'm sure that agencies are already using this technology to improve their models and forecasting, but how far away are we from seeing an impact? Are they hiring talented computer and data scientist to help? What's weather forecasting going to look like in 5 years?
  8. February 7th Snow To Rain Event

    Temps need to stop rising. I’m at 31/29
  9. Super Bowl Slop Storm

    Any chance I flip back to snow down here in Farifax over the next little bit? I'm about to go pickup some food for the Super Bowl and wouldn't mind seeing some wet flakes.
  10. February 2nd Rain/Snow Event

    Well I’ve got sleet in fairfax at 40 degrees. Guess the upper levels are pretty cold.
  11. February 2nd Rain/Snow Event

    I'm not expecting anything at all here, even if you do get 3-4". DP holding steady at 40 for the last hour.
  12. February 2nd Rain/Snow Event

    Got a feeling I'm going to be reading "Moderate wet snow for the last hour or so, sloppy inch or two on the ground now" from you in the near future.
  13. February 2nd Rain/Snow Event

    Whoa, I'm up to 51. Gonna need that temp to drop wayyy down to see some snowflakes.
  14. January 29-30th Rain/Flurries coastal and IVT

    I’m at 33/29 already in Fairfax. Got a lot colder a lot quicker than I thought. Good sign?
  15. Jan 16/17 Event Obs/Disc

    FCPS on a 2-hour delay. HRRR says we keep seeing snow well into the daylight hours. I could see a closure before too long.