LaGrangewx

Weeniest of weenie maps

For what it’s worth the Latest Para GFS is extremely different from the operational.

Haven’t been active in awhile but have started getting back on. Seems like a great time. 18z GFS is an absolute walloping!! 12z EPS was also great! Much better than the operational

Sugarloaf and Wildcat both have a solid amount of substantially higher terrain up to 4k+ instead of 3k and probably benefit a bit more from orographic enhancement which gets them to that 200 range like you said.

Yup you highlighted it perfectly. Just check that area out on any high-res model and its always the bulls-eye in southern Vermont for almost all systems. I think the Woodford Snobusters Snowmobile Club goes back in there but I could be wrong. I bet they see some ridiculous depths for southern Vermont if thats the case.

Really thorough analysis. 150" at Sunday River probably goes a long way with their retention, especially if it is from a majority of synoptic snow. I think somewhere like Mt. Snow obviously does not market their snowfall the same way Jay Peak or even Stowe does. Mt. Snow doesn't rely on snow to draw crowds, as their insane Terrain park, location, and amount of consistently groomed cruisers does the job. I think somewhere like Jay has to make it known loud and clear that they get that kind of snow, to draw people up to their more remote location. Its for that reason that a place like Mt Snow in my opinion does not track snowfall quite as diligently and make sure they report as many inches as truthfully possible from the snowiest place on the hill. They also don't get anywhere near the nickel and dime type snow that the Northern Vermont resorts get. As someone said earlier it is literally 10% of it and almost all their snow is synoptic whereas Killington can definitely get some more orographic benefit snows. I also believe Mt. Snow and Stratton are east of the best orographic snows in Southern Vermont that actually occur over the center of the plateau near Woodford and up to Glastenbury Mountain. Its amazing to see the difference in snow depths at times in the Mt. Snow base area vs Route 9 crest in Woodford when I've driven through there. I think you're on to something saying that 150" could be a number for eastern ski areas at 3000' in good locations for coastal storms that don't benefit from orographic snows.

It's interesting. Their data goes back to the 80s and the best 10 year average during that period seems to be around 260. 10 years is probably not enough data for a true long term average. I know another post above mentioned how it would be surprising if the r/s line in an event was between (Stratton+Mt Snow) and Killington but it does happen. I remember the mid-march storm of 2014 dropped 2 feet on Killington but it was a mixed mess in southern Vermont. Probably does not happen too frequently but it can. Killington is more centrally located on the crest of the spine than Stratton and Mt. Snow which probably helps them a bit as well. Long term I'd guess they probably average somewhere in that 200-250 range but they seem to have had a really tough go of it the past 10+ years. They haven't had a winter above their claimed 250 since 2010 and consecutive above average winters since the mid 2000s. Southern Vermont had a big 2018 thanks to March and even Whiteface had had a huge winter recently with the monster 2017 storm where they got like 50". Killington can't seem to catch a break someone alluded to it earlier but recently they've been sandwiched between patterns it seems.

One thing to consider is where the resorts are measuring snowfall. I know for a fact Killington used to mention on there website that they were listing summit snowfall totals as their average, which definitely can be misrepresentative of the resort as a whole especially as big as Killington is. I just looked at their website and their 10 year average is around 215" at the summit and that is excluding the abysmal 2015-2016 season.

Yup I saw that picture too. I saw it on nws btv Twitter

Wow that’s cool. I wonder if that’s rare or a more frequent occurrence and the summit misses out on some snow

Was looking at Bretton Woods on Instagram and saw they reported snow but MW Observatory has not reported any and seemed to be above the clouds yesterday. Can the summit of Mount Washington actually be above the upslope at times?

I passed Harvard Cabin on the way up Huntington and then came down Tuckerman through Hermit Lake. I remember it being very dense on the way to Harvard Cabin but if I remember correctly it opens up a bit from there to the base of Huntington Ravine. Looking at the Topo Harvard Cabin is at about 3500 and Hermit 3900. They are less than 3/4 of a mile apart as the crow flies so yes it would be very interesting if there were truly drastic differences.

Thanks for the input. That’s Interesting. I would love to get over and ski Tuckermans this spring. Seems like the 2 years you mentioned are probably below average seasons snowfall wise. I remember reading in this thread that some are very skeptical of MW summit snowfall measurement practices and that it’s almost impossible to accurately measure up there. I remember guesses that In reality it could average more like 400” which seems believable at 6280. I know Wildcat claims about 200” at 3000 feet mid mountain across the notch and Hermit lake is part of the actual MW basin about 1000’ higher than wildcat so I guessed maybe it would be more like 250”. But time will see if they are reporting now. I feel like it could be slightly more accurate down there than the summit as it is far more sheltered from the wind.

Always love reading through this thread. I haven’t been the most active on here but I keep up with reading for the inside scoop. I have lots of weather and snow related questions and figure you guys have great input. Was wondering what you guys thought hermit lake plot averages? 250? Or even more? Also how do you think that compares to Chimney pond ranger station under Katahdin and the Lake Colden Ranger station in the Adk at 2800’ sandwiched in between Algonquin and Colden. I’ve always viewed those as the 3 big interior backcountry locations with at least some snow or depth reports. I know both chimney and hermit lake had about 100” depth in 2017 and Colden outpost routinely has 5-6 feet. I’ve hiked all over the ADK and just did Huntington Ravine and Katahdin this past September. Both were tremendously impressive.

Does this storm have any similarities to late December 2016? I see similarities in the snowfall maps being posted but I was wondering if the actual storm dynamics were at all similar from someone with more meteorological knowledge. I remember That 2016 storm trended East at the last second and instead of crushing the white mountains it was immediate inland Maine

Haven’t posted in awhile but love reading this forum. I was wondering what the Vermont resorts are expecting in terms of crowds and business, considering only Vermont residents seem to be able to ski this year as of now. I would guess a vast majority of skiers for the southern Vermont resorts come from out of state. Are they expecting to take a massive hit this season?