Frog Town

Not gonna lie, I've been hoping for this thread to started as well! Way too early to get excited about any particular prognostication, but the CDC's outlook gets me excited about my first Great Lakes Christmas Ale during the first flakes!!

From an anomaly standpoint, does this heat wave extreme compare to the Arctic Outbreak with had this past January?? It's a windchill vs. Heat Indices thing but I was curious to see what everyone else thinks?? Also, interesting to note that this heat wave will come and go in three days much like the Arctic Outbreak did. Went from a high of -10's to a high of 58 in 3 days.

So the prognosticators of an epic Winter with a persistent Negative NAO nailed it! Just 3 months late. Put this pattern in January and you bury the Upper Ohio Valley with lots of snow and cold. Rat Fart!

This Scenario sets everyone up for failure. Best just to sit back and enjoy the knuckle/curve/slider/fast ball that mother nature is pitching....

I believe that was around Sunday, April 8 2016

Wow! Some epic output 12Z runs on many models for the lower great lakes.

How apropos....... this "Winter" season will be book ended by two epic off season Blizzards......possibly.

Has the energy been fully sampled? Is it possible this could be a stronger system?

Same with Toledo.

Smelt it dealt it.

Well, DTX pretty much sums it up for much of the sub forum......talk about a rock and hard spot, lol.

Well, DTX pretty much much sums it up for much of the sub forum......talk about a rock and hard spot, lol. Relentless pattern of anticyclonic wave breaking over the NPAC & CWB over the NATL domain will continue for the duration of the extended period courtesy of a retracted Pacific jet and active STJ extending across the USA. This will, at least, result in stagnation of the current pattern but will more likely favor some degree of longwave amplification accompanied by a tendency for retrogression of the mean storm track when energy occasionally ejects from the western US trough. The forecast is therefore one that migrates toward increasingly mild outcomes with time. The best chances for snow will require suppression from the polar jet which will in turn limit amplification potential and subsequent impact potential while deeper cyclones will be far more likely to track west of the area and bring snow-mix-ra transitions. The first manifestations of this tendency are Sunday`s suppressed low-impact snow potential (discussed above) followed by 12z NWP depictions of a warmer STJ-influenced system lifting west of the CWA mid-week next week.

Well, DTX pretty much much sums it up for much of the sub forum......talk about a rock and hard spot, lol. Relentless pattern of anticyclonic wave breaking over the NPAC & CWB over the NATL domain will continue for the duration of the extended period courtesy of a retracted Pacific jet and active STJ extending across the USA. This will, at least, result in stagnation of the current pattern but will more likely favor some degree of longwave amplification accompanied by a tendency for retrogression of the mean storm track when energy occasionally ejects from the western US trough. The forecast is therefore one that migrates toward increasingly mild outcomes with time. The best chances for snow will require suppression from the polar jet which will in turn limit amplification potential and subsequent impact potential while deeper cyclones will be far more likely to track west of the area and bring snow-mix-ra transitions. The first manifestations of this tendency are Sunday`s suppressed low-impact snow potential (discussed above) followed by 12z NWP depictions of a warmer STJ-influenced system lifting west of the CWA mid-week next week.

I know the models are not eye candy right now, but anyone in the southern great lakes is sitting pretty right now pattern wise, going into March.

Are you surprised they didn't upgrade Fulton and Williams just to your south? They also seem to be in same axis as you and the Lenawee and Monroe

Anyone notice what the 06 3K nam did with a secondary low coming up through Ohio Tuesday? Or is that just the low re-positioning itself? Weird.

Thank you for your insight into this.

I remember as a kid in Toledo watching it down poor rain for hours and then all of a sudden, in the middle of the night, it switched to snow and we picked up 10". I don't remember what the actual storm did, but i'm guessing it was a situation similar to what this one could do. Pulls cold air in as it strengthens going by to one's south. I'm not foretasted to be in that area, but with some changes occurring with other telleconnections suggest this one may trend south as we progress through the week. We shall see!

Is the nam to be taken seriously in NW OH/SE MI? I know a lot of that is freezing rain/sleet but something else is going on now, 3 runs in a row.

So do we ignore the 00Z nam or what. Seem's like a game changer to me. At least as far as the hi-res american models go.

GRR riding the Euro's SE trend pretty hard for those in the the southern lakes area. As for our storm on Tuesday... this is a system that went over the top of the large upper ridge over Alaska and dove south to just off the west coast of the Pacific Northwest. There is yet a strong system trailing it that will boot this system quickly east. As that system moves into the front side of the longwave trough, it will go negative tilt at upper levels and deepen rapidly as it comes out of the southern Plains toward Michigan. The ECMWF has trended farther south and east with each model run since the 7th 00z. This would suggest a more southern track for this system and would favor less freezing rain if this trend continues. It will be a high QPF event as there is around an inch of precipitable water feeding it. We will continue to monitor this system. I could see winter headlines for this system by Monday.

Pretty much the world was calling for a cold February.

What would we need to see in this pattern to get the storms to cut less next week? If the MJO won't do it, what will??

The take away here as we transition into a favorable MJO postilion is the storm track will be favorable for many in the sub. With the Cold being a big part of Phase 8, i'd bet on the suppressed storm track vs. a wild cutter IMHO.