Frog Town

So with it bumping east and taking a track towards Cleveland, wouldn't the Axis of snow shift more towards SE MI/NW Ohio? Or is this a situation where there is just a lack of cold air for that to occure

Just a matter of perspective then? Only get an argument like this on a weather forum, LOL. We are just a bunch of nerds(Never.Ending.Radical.Dudes)

Agreed. Weird, it's almost like it mimicked part of the run.

Definitely some serious changes coming in the next 7-10 days.

Seasonal trends would take this thing south and east, as every other pan handle hooker has done since early November. While it's current track is favorable for the heart of the sub, seems too good to be true with how this season has gone. But I guess it's gotta change, and go against the grain at some point.....

Agreed dude! What gives Zzzz man??

Approaching an Inch here in Toledo. More than I expected.

We're all jealous of your plowing issues. Poor guy.

with the trough centered more west, the storm track should be more north imho

Seriously looking like 11-12' redux. Now that the warm blob in the NE pacific has cooled and the polar vortex has tightened up, the writing is on the wall. Just goes to show how many things went right for 13-14' and how rare that set up was.

Yeah, but it's finally starting to show some cold at the end of it's run. That's a first.

Perhaps this is the "Calm" before the storm??

but better than this...

Is it just me, or has the 12Z Euro totally change it's town from Christmas on??

A slight glimmer of hope from some nice DTX analysis this Sunday am.........I know, I know....I'm grabbing on straws. So far, the satellite representation (including a decent look from GOES-15 in this fairly data void satellite area) of the lead vorticity spokes pivoting around northern upper low suggest this energy may be digging a bit sharper southwest into the Northwest Territories. If the trend were to persist, a slightly deeper mean upper trough would result and the odds that some light deformation snow from the southern system would lift into southern parts of the forecast area would increase. Given this, will not abandon the idea of some light accumulating snow over far southern areas completely despite a definite consolidation of most model solutions in that direction.

I can't tell you how many times I sat in the bulls eye of a snow storm, only to watch it trend north at the last minute. Hmmm...Curious??

I guess the 12Z Euro is the nail, or the last straw, for us Northern hopefuls! Ohio and Indiana deserves this though.

I was just gonna post that DTX Discussion. I thought it was an in-depth analysis vs. GRR's one or two sentences, LOL.

Is the screaming pacific Jet(similar to last year at this time) really expected to flood the country with pacific air until early January?

An exact repeat of that is what it looks like.

I'm getting this weird feeling that things are shaping up exactly like last year. It's almost a Deja Vu feeling. Ripping pacific jet, signs of Strong El nino, etc.... Many Winter Forecasts are identical to last year at this time. .....Anyone else getting that feeling?

Soooo, what you're saying is this cool November will flip a warm DEC-JAN-FEB, like what typically happens with a strong El NiNO??

Do tell!

Not quite in the Nam's wheel house yet.

I truly believe that Winter (13-14') was a once in 50 year event. I would be amazed to see something like that come together again, in my lifetime.