Frog Town

From a local Met who I highly respect and has a great track record. Good read for those interested in this aspect of Meteorology/Climatology: "**Weather Nerd Alert: Unprecedented El Nino Arrives…Polar Vortex Says, “Hold My Beer!”** *Short Version: A strong El Nino is dominating the global weather pattern and keeping us mild here at home. However, a major disturbance in the polar vortex could shift the pattern towards cold and snow before November ends, and leave a lasting impact on the winter overall. *Detailed Version: Buckle up folks, this is going to be interesting to watch. We have not 1, but 2 unprecedented global weather patterns that are about to overlap and nobody knows exactly how this will play out across the US. El Nino is currently near or possibly at record levels currently. This El Nino is also likely to peak over the next 2 months before a slow/gradual weakening late in the winter. I have mentioned repeatedly that strong El Ninos generally lead to warmer than normal temperatures overall for the Great Lakes region with below normal snowfall, AND that the Polar Vortex can enhance that pattern or modify the effects. Well as it turns out, the Polar Vortex is doing something unprecedented on its own that could have a major impact on not only the winter, but also late fall. A Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is likely to occur next month. We are already seeing the early signs of this playing out and our computer models are all in sync showing this evolving during the first part of November. These events used to be rare occurring once every other year on average. However, they are becoming more common in late January through March. They are very rare in December and essentially unheard of in November. A SSW is a sudden warming that occurs in the stratosphere above the North Pole. This does not impact the weather at the ground, at least it doesn’t initially. The warming high above the North Pole triggers a domino effect. This weakens the Polar Vortex and that allows a more amplified jet stream and Arctic air to shift away from the North Pole. It sets the stage for Arctic Outbreaks and snow. It can take a couple of weeks for us to feel any impact from a SSW, but once the weak Polar Vortex develops, it can influence the weather pattern for 2-6 weeks on average. It may also set the stage for the coming winter pattern. So what does that mean for us in the short term and for the winter overall? Well, as I said to start off this post, nobody knows for sure. We are about to see two unprecedented events overlap at the same time. I am a student of weather history, but I don’t have a data set I can refer to in this scenario. The closest match is the winter of 2009-10. That winter we had a moderate to strong El Nino (just not nearly as strong as this season), and we did have a Polar Vortex disturbance in mid to late November (though not to the extent of this year). The result was a warm end to October and a warm November, but a quick flip to cold and snow in December. The winter was back and forth, but overall, we ended up with near normal snowfall to slightly above normal (about 40” for the winter). 1968-69 is the next closest match, but that El Nino was weaker and the Polar Vortex disturbance was weak. With that said, November started with near record warmth and bounced back and forth between warmth and snow before Thanksgiving, but winter locked in between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Early January was harsh with cold and snow, then winter flipped back towards warmth the rest of the season. Overall snowfall was below normal at 28”. Computer models are much warmer than normal to start off November. They do not show any significant pushes of cold air right now in the middle to later part of November. However, models are not reliable at all during that time period either. Based on the information we have right now, I suspect we will see a bigger pattern flip towards cold and possibly snow in the 2nd half of November. Thanksgiving to Christmas could be a colder and snowier time period with big ups and downs the rest of the winter. Odds still favor a warmer than normal winter with below normal to near normal snowfall. With that said, we are dealing with uncharted territory here. I will keep you updated as we navigate the new data in the weeks ahead."

It’s about time someone started this! Now I can stop trolling other forums for my fix. It’s kind of a relief to start with such low expectations—things can only go up from here!

If I’m remembering correctly, we had a super El Niño during the winter of 2015–2016. That November brought an unusually cold outbreak, with highs in the teens around midmonth, before a more typical El Niño pattern took hold for the rest of winter. With a recurving typhoon, Ural blocking, a weakening polar vortex, and other factors potentially lining up, I’m wondering whether we could see a similar November this year. Thoughts or rebuttals?

I think this includes all of us..

Goofus says what torch..

Concerned that convection over Tennessee is robbing moisture transport into the back end of the storm...

Wow! With 8" already you guys have a legit chance at hitting 20"

Just measured 4" here in Toledo. I think everyone in Ohio, outside of the snowbelt, had their guard up after years of dry slot, virga, wtod, etc., and then to wake up to this! We are all in shock, lol.

Phasing looks to be happening quicker leading to a slower coastal transfer. Hi -Res should be the first to see this.

I suspect at least Monroe and Lenawee will be added once all the hi-res 12Z data is in.

Nice trends overnight! This is all because MI was removed from the thread. Mother Nature's humor..

Why did we remove MI from the thread name? Watch this thing nail MI just to spite it, lol.

Assuming this is why the Winter Storm Watches extended NW a bit into Toledo. Imagine some will be added to SE michigan..

Difference between what we have beginning to unfold and what occurred in 2013-2014 is the amount of snow we had on the ground. 2013-14 started in early January with 15" otg. Also occurring 3 weeks later, which would argue for better results with climo.

Everything was just upped here from 1" to 2-3". Phasing earlier??