Frog Town

Concerned that convection over Tennessee is robbing moisture transport into the back end of the storm...

Wow! With 8" already you guys have a legit chance at hitting 20"

Just measured 4" here in Toledo. I think everyone in Ohio, outside of the snowbelt, had their guard up after years of dry slot, virga, wtod, etc., and then to wake up to this! We are all in shock, lol.

Phasing looks to be happening quicker leading to a slower coastal transfer. Hi -Res should be the first to see this.

I suspect at least Monroe and Lenawee will be added once all the hi-res 12Z data is in.

Nice trends overnight! This is all because MI was removed from the thread. Mother Nature's humor..

Why did we remove MI from the thread name? Watch this thing nail MI just to spite it, lol.

Assuming this is why the Winter Storm Watches extended NW a bit into Toledo. Imagine some will be added to SE michigan..

Difference between what we have beginning to unfold and what occurred in 2013-2014 is the amount of snow we had on the ground. 2013-14 started in early January with 15" otg. Also occurring 3 weeks later, which would argue for better results with climo.

Everything was just upped here from 1" to 2-3". Phasing earlier??

Great Met out of Toledo who would of satisfied the kid in all if we had social media back in the 80's and 90's, when I was a kid. Anyways, he does an awesome of job of getting into the science and behind the scenes stuff that most don't bother with. Great guy as well. He delves into the possibilities over the next few weeks. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1B3hupyCAs/

This! Whether is comes to fruition is another question but this is where we need the cold to get real action in sub..

Said it 1000x's already, we NEED the mean trough to be anchored in the upper Midwest/Plains for use to get what we want. Anything over the Great lakes is thread the needle hybrids and clippers, or what we've had the past two winters. Arctic air hitting the great lakes is what we want to happen after a big dog.. There is light at the end of the tunnel if the ENSO/Pacific can transition to a neutral as the it appears to be doing towards the middle of January. Question is, will it be too late??

If this works out, it will be a repeat of last year. I've said it a 1000x's before, the cold needs to be centered to our west for this sub to be in any kind of action other than the nickel and diming we've been experiencing.

I can be patient and wait 10 days for this pattern flip that seems to be modeled pretty well on just about everything, but I'm hoping it lasts for a few weeks. Hate to wait 10 days for something that lasts 5...