Hoosier

Warm front is still pretty far south. On a more localized scale for parts of IL/WI, the E/SE flow off of a relatively cool Lake Michigan should further limit a tornado threat close to the lake.

Some clearing spreading from Iowa into western IL. Should get a nice bump in temps in northern IL later. I do wonder if somewhat greater severe chances could set up in the central/southern LOT cwa compared to farther north, but it's a bit unclear.

CAMs do show at least some potential.

Had no idea there was a Muncie, Illinois. Learn something new all the time.

Preliminary rating for the Jefferson City tornado is higher end EF3.

Tomorrow looks conditionally interesting in the north/east part of the risk area, i.e. in this region.

83 mph gust in Watseka.

Radar isn't much to look at but it has gotten surprisingly gusty in the showers currently moving through.

Another shot of the Jeff City tornado, taken from the Capitol Plaza Hotel

Tornado warned storm headed toward Pontiac, IL.

Interesting seeing a few counties on the northern end of that watch that aren't in the polygon at all.

Fairly substantial evolution in the outlooks today. 06z vs 20z

From latest outlook ...Midwest... Considered increasing tornado probabilities and adding significant hail but low confidence exists in whether supercells can be sustained in the warm sector across IL/IN. A slowly decaying MCS is ongoing near the IL/WI border within a warm advection regime. Morning CAM guidance has poorly handled with most struggling to maintain any semblance of convection beyond initialization. The stratiform region across Lake MI should have an impact on downstream destabilization in Lower MI given that richer boundary-layer moisture characterized by low to mid 60s surface dew points is currently confined from IL west. It is possible that the MCS may not entirely dissipate as warm advection persists through the period. Renewed development on the upshear side would seemingly be most likely along trailing convective outflow. Along the eastern extent of the Great Plains elevated mixed layer at peak heating, robust upstream diabatic heating should result in large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Veering of the wind profile with height on the periphery of moderate mid-level northwesterlies will favor supercell structures. An evolution to another MCS with wind/hail risks appears probable tonight towards the OH Valley.

Definitely some potential but will have a better sense of it in the morning.

Large scale pattern certainly looks favorable. Devil is in the details.

Scary stuff. Glad things turned out relatively ok.

That looks like the old school TWC graphics. Who knew that they're still in use.

I doubt it. Of course it gets crazy hot there but the dews aren't high enough. My guess for highest heat index would be somewhere in the Midwest, which has the benefit of extra evapotranspiration from the crops.

Agree... go with the reliable info when you have it. I just meant that the data to pick from is a bit limited by not having public access to the intrahour obs from many years back.

Looks like that was intrahour. That's the thing... these wind chill records are almost always going to be hourly readings since I don't think it's possible to find intrahour observation archives from long ago.

I was in Lafayette, IN back then. Looks like the wind chill bottomed out at -40

1/6/2014 was quite an experience. Besides the extreme cold, the fact that the temperature dropped to those levels so soon after the snowstorm meant that the roads were a mess. Even the main roads had that layer of hardened snow that wouldn't come off.

The Kansas/Missouri records being colder is a little surprising, but there could be various reasons. Even could be some microclimate thing.

Congrats on the job. Sucks that another poster is moving out of the region though.