Hoosier

Something I noticed on the GFS... look how it's handling the wave coming into the northern Plains around the time that our southern stream system approaches. The other models are more amplified with that, which may help explain the more generous precip distribution farther n/w.

Yeah. Perfect would be a 36 or 48 hr map.

Not sure if any website has this capability, but can someone post a Euro snow map for the entire storm with this weekend's system subtracted?

I've seen way quicker coastal transfers than this. It actually gets going pretty late... so late that it doesn't do anything for the big I-95 cities (inland track of the secondary doesn't help them either)

It does seem a little strange that the GFS doesn't bring some light precip farther north. The mid level features don't seem prohibitively far south. Also don't really have a robust surface high to dramatically reinforce/suppress the northwest end of the precip shield.

Even if this one doesn't produce much in northern IL, you know that the big dog futility record won't be broken. Pattern looks too active going forward and lighter events add up.

What we're all waiting for is final call time from Alek. Should get it tomorrow one would think, though weekend casts some doubt.

Do you think a blanket 1-2", or would you favor the s/se LOT cwa for those amounts?

It's too bad that the airmass with this system isn't colder. Southern Lake Michigan water temps are running around mid 30s near the shore to about 40 farther out in the lake, which seems to me like it's probably warmer than average. It looks cold enough to get some lake enhanced precip going, especially later on in the storm, but this is not likely to be a big contributor to totals along the western shore.

Non-globals like the NAM/HRRR/RAP seem to have better snow farther south in LOT (though still light)

Looks like they fixed the afd. Like where did that even come from though? Strange

Corrected a couple small errors. Overall, doesn't change the picture.

Rolling these years forward, here were the final snowfall amounts for each. Pretty ugly overall, with every year finishing with below average snowfall. Doesn't mean that this year's total has to fall within this range, but it gives a sense of where the goalposts have been. If there is one positive, it's that the two years in the 2000s rallied the most to break 30" 30.1" 2012-13 19.1" 1912-13 12.0" 1936-37 21.7" 1889-90 24.0" 1943-44 19.0" 1901-02 20.6" 1905-06 ???? 2022-23 31.1" 2001-02 26.6" 1982-83 21.5" 1922-23

ORD needs 0.3" to reach 5". Can we do it?

With this multi-year run of Ninas, was thinking about what the next big Nino could be like. How warm could it get? The strong/super Ninos have a return rate of about once every 10-15 years. Last one was 2015-16, so good chance we'll see it again sometime in the next several years. Of course some may argue that this winter has seemed like a Nino.

Kind of tricky to pin down where highest amounts will be in LOT cwa. Guidance is all over the place. Some stuff pointing south, other stuff farther north.

Believe it or not, I'd rather have that model on board with something than the GFS. Still too early to be too confident in any particular outcome though.

Yeah the no votes are looking good. Probably just jinxed it.

Was on the good side of that gradient and would certainly put it in the top 10 since 2010.

Snowfall to date: MSP: 52.5", ORD 4.7"

You should've been on here for GHD. To this day it is still my favorite event to track on here, even though the outcome at my then-location was not what I was looking for. The level of excitement and enthusiasm was fun.

No, more like 10 times. Overall though I think I/we sit in a decent spot at this point.

SPC meso discussion alluded to this Mesoscale Discussion 0079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Areas affected...Northwestern/north-central Ohio Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26... Valid 192039Z - 192215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe wind gusts are most likely in parts of northern Ohio over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Strong mixing has lowered dewpoints across southern Ohio to the low/mid 30s F. Farther north, a longer duration of cloud cover has sheltered the area from mixing. Dewpoints in northern Ohio have remained in the low/mid 40s F. Observational trends indicate that the strongest portion of the frontal convection has been where dewpoints are in the mid 40s F. Though forcing from the shortwave trough will remain moderate/strong, it appears that the greatest threat for strong/severe wind gusts will be confined to where these greater dewpoints are in northern Ohio. ..Wendt.. 01/19/2023

The trajectory of this event is looking questionable to say the least. Mentioned the ample insolation earlier. I think it may have actually been a little too much of a good thing, because it has contributed to dews mixing out into the 30s/low 40s in much of the area. From an instability perspective, the warmer temps at the sfc may not be enough to fully compensate for that drop in dews.

I'm about 1000 times more afraid of a miss south than a miss north.