Hoosier

00z GFS has less/delayed interaction with the northern stream, thus a less snowy solution.

Arguably the loudest debut that we've seen by a poster in this sub.

The ice was on more than 1 GFS run (I know because I was following that aspect more closely) but I guess you have a point that the GFS was the earliest/most consistently showing some kind of a wintry system affecting the area.

You DOA'd it up the thread... was that for everybody or for ORD? I'm so very confused.

Try supplementing with vitamin D (or increase the dose if you already do). - Amateur Dr. Hoosier

Gruber Law offices only had 42 today.

Why can't both be factors?

Does it always feel like summer in JJA around Chicago though? A typical June will have at least a couple days with highs in the 60s in Chicago (and more than that the closer you are to the lake). That's not very summer-like. In July 2021, Chicago had 12 days with a high under 80, and one of those days had a high in the 60s! That's not very summer-like, especially when it's in the mid 70s or cooler. So I think you are overstating the look and feel of summer thing a bit. It's not some automatic guarantee to be that way.

Hey, at least it's moisture.

Chicago/south will do best in the LOT cwa if the models are on track. Something we have seen quite a few times in recent memory.

I don't share his stance on climate change, but let's face it, there really isn't anything that an individual person can do to impact the climate in a meaningful way. And even if everybody in the United States including all of our politicians believed in climate change... great. What about the rest of the world?

A key question with this is how quickly that temps can fall back in the def zone. With 925 mb temps falling below 0C and some moderate precip rates (if not temporarily heavy), plus being in the middle of January, you would think that it shouldn't be hard to get temps to settle down to around 32-33 in the heart of the band. But it will be crucial to see how fast that occurs because the window for good snow rates at any given location does not look terribly long.

I was wondering why you hadn't thrown out a number yet.

SnOvechkin has risen up from out of nowhere. Been here 8 years and is now posting.

A "reverse" grader so to speak. There are probably at least a few others.

System really gets going and has a nice hit for MI on the GFS.

So... as we will be getting to the halfway point of met winter pretty soon, how would you grade winter so far? I'd go D+. May seem a little generous, but that period leading into Christmas is what raises the grade for me. If that had been timed differently, I'd be going D-. I couldn't go F in any circumstance because of that really cold spell that we had. Staying below zero all day is not super rare around here, but doing it in December is pretty rare and that wins some points from me.

Thread for late week

A most fitting title for the circumstances. Good enough model agreement in a general sense that somebody is likely to get some snow.

Probably time for me to send out feelers again about the shadow mod thing...

Do you have the average highs and lows for Chicago from back then to see how each compares to now? So in other words, 1951-1980 normal January high vs 1991-2020 normal January high, and 1951-1980 normal January low vs 1991-2020 normal January low.

No flakes for us?

I mentioned the late week system in the short/medium range thread. Which brings up a point. It can be a little confusing to have a thread titled short/medium range and another one titled medium/long range since both have the word medium. I've always looked at this one as more of a long range pattern type of thread though with the short/medium range one meant for individual storm discussion.

GFS is really trying for a respectable wintry system late week. Guess much will depend on the amount of confluence to the north. GFS has a good amount of that with a respectable resultant surface high in place.

Most of the big cities out there have had 0 snow so far at the official observation sites. The one exception is Boston, but they've only had 1.2". Even a place like Worcester is way in the hole.