Hoosier

Need some good old palm tree destruction

You know what's also pathetic? There have been several occurrences of less snow between 12/25 and 1/15 than the 0.8" that ORD has this season.

Looking at forecast soundings from that area, you can see the difference that temps/dews around 50 makes. There's up to a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE in those areas, which drops toward zero in areas with temps/dews that are just a few degrees lower. These events ride such a fine line.

Currently 47/45 at Cedar Rapids. You wouldn't think it would still be tornadic by the time it approaches there, but who knows. Tornadoes can and do occur every so often with temps/dews in the 40s, and it's probably in these kind of setups that feature plentiful cold air aloft/steep lapse rates.

The Minny magic is starting to slip.

12z Euro = best fantasy land Euro run since last month?

Chicago or bust.

I don't think the NAM/GFS ever had dews in the 50s in Iowa. There's at least a narrow corridor of that at present. Scenario 3 that I outlined may be most plausible one at this point

There have been 8 occurrences where Indianapolis' biggest calendar day snowfall occurred in November. And a number of them happened in the first half of November. 11/4/1886: 4.4" 11/9/1921: 3.8" 11/27/1931: 2.9" 11/16/1932: 8.6" 11/6/1951: 2.9" 11/28/1958: 4.6" (tied with 3/10/1959 for biggest) 11/2/1966: 7.8" 11/13/1997: 3.3"

They had 2.7" on 11/12. Other than that, no calendar day snow over 1". I think it's those smaller dustings that tend to be forgotten, but they add up.

The marginal risk has returned. ...Eastern IA and northwest IL... Favorable wind profiles for low-topped supercells will be present in the southeast quadrant of a 994-mb surface cyclone tracking from southwest to northeast IA. Surface temperatures have warmed into the mid 50s to low 60s in a confined corridor centered on LWD-CDJ before broadening across central MO, with relatively ample insolation beneath the mid-level dry slot. The 12Z NAM and most HREF members appear much too cool within the thermal axis compared to 16Z observations. The RAP/HRRR-based guidance appear closer to reality but may be a bit too moist given an even narrower corridor of low 50s surface dew points from southwest to north-central MO. But further mixing and poleward moisture advection may be just enough, given the mid-level cold pocket of -22 to -24 C at 500 mb, to support meager MLCAPE approaching 500 J/kg towards mid-afternoon. While it is plausible that convection may fail to adequately intensify this afternoon, observational trends along with HRRR/RRFS guidance suggest the threat for a couple brief tornadoes and marginally severe hail is large enough to warrant low severe probabilities. Convection will subside quickly after sunset as it outpaces the narrow plume of weak surface-based instability.

06z HRRR is STILL bringing low 50s dews into central Iowa over through the Quad Cities area. Stubborn son of a gun

Not for a while. 2015 and 2017 were ok, but really have to go back to 2014 and 2013 for good Marches.

I'd go .00001

Coming soon. The revenge of ORD

I'd say there's a good chance the east coast is f*cked overall (never can rule out a fluke/brief favorable period). More nuanced situation in our sub imo.

Yeah, the progged 850 mb low track is not going to work for us. Need an adjustment. The 850 mb 0C line is already north of I-80 in our region even while the 850 mb low is back in Kansas. While there is better antecedent cold than there was for the system that recently moved through, it's still pretty pathetic. There probably won't be the classic "front end thump" with this anywhere, because it's simply too warm. You start as snow, you'll likely be mostly snow. You start as rain, you'll likely be mostly rain.

This. Pattern looks to remain active, with the gradient being somewhere around the area. Throw enough stuff at the wall and something is bound to stick at some point, especially for those of us north of 40N.

Admittedly would be nice to see something other than the RAP on board with this lol

What, like 1 degree? They still max at 53 in the target area.

They did remove the marginal risk on the updated day 2 outlook. I figured it would've been left in place for continuity purposes even with all the uncertainty. Can debate whether a marginal risk should've been outlined on the first day 2 outlook, but it's not like the 12z runs were the thing to lower the threat. Each model essentially stuck to its guns.

18z HRRR basically held. Something's gotta give lol

Where's the south trend when we need it? I do wonder if this may be less prone to trending materially south than other storms we have seen. A lot of times when the models trend south, it's because they botched a phase. We don't really have that kind of setup this time. Not that it still couldn't trend south though.

Random fact of the day. Chicago and Indianapolis are almost tied in snowfall to date. ORD: 4.7" IND: 4.4"

At least we're making progress. Does look like things will tend to favor north of I-80 for a while.