Hoosier

18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The benchmark for a February torch until it's surpassed is February 2017. 6 days in a row of highs from the mid 60s to around 70 at ORD on 2/17-2/22 and then 2/23 hit 59.


 

The amazing thing about that is that the winds were unusually light most of the time iirc.  You're almost always going to need to be in a windy warm sector to get that warm in February.

After a hot first part of the winter, things have really slowed down at MSP.  In the past 35 days (1/6 through 2/9), ORD has actually outsnowed MSP by a count of 9.7" to 7.3"

Snow map of the year candidate.

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

pulling for a continued trend nw, to get us into the 60’s and a severe wx op.


.

I'm totally expecting to be in no man's land in between the snow and severe threat.  I've thrown just about all optimism for exciting wx out the window at this point.

7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Wagons west on mid to late week storm on 12z euro

I wonder if there is a sweet spot of separation between the lead system and this one to make it work for Illinois.  If it comes out too quickly, it will tend to cut toward a similar track as the first system.  But if it comes out too slowly, then it also gives it a chance to cut farther nw.  

Probably a serious/difficult thread the needle for many of us.

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

2012-13 is another analog to the current season in terms of low snow to this point. That season ended up with an AN Feb and March to salvage merely slightly below normal for the season at ORD. It also had near misses to prevent an AN seasonal total, and far northern IL did finish above to well above normal.

If we don't get a solid event or two the rest of this month, having to rely on March to escape 2011-12 like futility will be a taller order, but not unheard of. 2001-02 is another somewhat recent example that had just under 20" going into March, but had 11.2" in March to finish slightly below normal on the season (I consider ~30" slightly below normal given the year to year volatility of snowfall). Ultimately, ORD often finds a way to get to 30"+, though this season does look to be a challenge to do so.

 

2012-13 added about 20" of snow from the back half of February onward, so nice rally indeed.  That almost seems impossible to pull off this year with how things have been going, but we probably would've said the same thing at this time in 2013.  It's unlikely of course, but you never know.

54 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

With Detroit being at 19.3", even though it's only 5 more inches than Chicago, it really makes a difference in that there's a lot of years that we're at that point or lower by mid February. So it's not even worth looking up those stats for Detroit. However I did double check the Chicago stats just to see what years they were and I actually came up with 24 years not 22, And 3 years in the past 60 (you forgot 1997-98).

Chicago has some missing snowfall data on the usual websites like xmacis (mainly in the late 1890s and part of the 1990s).  However, there's another site that I use to fill in those gaps where I can get a very good idea of daily snowfall amounts.  

Your 2 extra years are 1896-97 and 1997-98, both of which have a lot of missing data on xmacis.  But I can tell you that both were over 15" by 2/14, which is why I left them off the list.

More stats for Chicago...

With 14.2" on the season and no snow in the forecast, it is a virtual guarantee that Chicago will still be under 15" on the season when we reach the halfway point of this month.

There have been 22 years where Chicago has been under 15" as of February 14, but it has only happened twice in the past 60 years (1963-64 and 2012-13).  All 22 years finished with below average snowfall, with most being well below average.  1963-64 rallied to darn near average though with 35.2".  Also had a very large rally in 1937-38 to finish at 34.8"

9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

We'll make it to mid-month with only a T at least.

For sure.  I actually looked ahead at that and there's been about 10 other occurrences of 0.0" or a T from 2/1 through 2/14.  It last happened in 2017.

Chicago recorded 0.0" of snow in the first 8 days of February for the first time since 1998 (some years since then have produced a T in the first 8 days of February).  

February 1998 ended up finishing with 0.0" of snow.  Pretty astonishing.  I don't think we'll do that this time.

16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Missed the accumulating snow by less than 5 miles.  A few wet flakes mixed in a times both here and at work.  Picked up 1.12" of rain.  

MLI might have passed us up in seasonal snowfall now.  They were at 10.7", and had picked up 0.9" as of noon.  Still stuck at 12.0" here. 

Missed it by less than 200 miles here.  Close one.

58 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

1880s, 1930s and part of 1950s skew data warm as he used.  This new pattern is the development of the world within the last 50 years so 1970s makes sense.

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Dawg, at least you could try and not clutter data with noise from the 1800s.  Things become much more clear when you do 50 years of data.  Rapid warming.  21.6F to 28F.  Yikes.

Anybody starting with 1970 or so is being disingenuous.  That was basically right in the midst of the coldest years on record, so you're starting with an unusually cold baseline.  Either use 30 year averages or the entire period of record.

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

Euro and CMC dangle carrot post Valentines 

If a 980 mb low passes south of me a la Euro, I will leave the board for 1 month after the storm.  That's my confidence in that solution not happening.

But in a general sense, you see the models advertising how areas outside of the upper Midwest can score in the next 7-10 days.  Ricky alluded to it.  Get a lead system to suppress the baroclinic zone to some extent for the next one.

Today's marginal risk has been removed.

Did have a small cluster of wind reports around the southern IL/western KY area yesterday evening into early this morning.

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Averages will start going down with each new dataset.

Obviously nobody can predict with 100% certainty, but I don't think it's going to play out like that for the most part in our region.  I think we're more likely to see something like below, with decades/periods where the snowfall averages are steady or even bump up a bit (largely courtesy of a big season or two), with any more sustained precipitous decade over decade decline potentially not occurring until after most of us are dead.  Natural variability still matters... a lot.

Just my 2 cents

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Touche, and fair enough - I probably picked a bad example. 

But it sucks when it's sunny and in the 40s in Feb.  Why is that controversial?  And, either way, who cares how MSP is doing vs. their climo; it only matters how they're doing in an absolute sense vs. what winter should be like.  Miami had a great winter vs. climo in 1976-77, with all of the oranges destroyed and temps in the 20s with snow flurries on one day. Does that mean they had a good winter?  Of course not.

And, please everyone - don't put words in my mouth.  I've never demanded Siberia or interior Alaska, or even the Keewenaw.  It's very simple - on Feb 8th, it should be cold with snow cover and frozen lakes.  End of story.  Is that really a "next level" request?  Are we not allowed to want it to be winter in DJF?  I'm tired of having to depend on events, as opposed to being able to rely on the calendar.  Sure, good winters can have more events than bad winters...but all that really means is there's either 20" of snow cover and 20" ice depth on Feb 8th in a good winter, vs. 6"/6" in a bad winter.  The season looks like the season should, no matter what the winter-to-winter variability is.

It's exhausting to accept everyone's low standards...like we're psychologically convincing ourselves that everything is ok, when it's not.  It's easy to be content when standards are low - a good metaphor for life.  

Look at the F-6 for Minocqua this winter so far.  46N in the great state of Wisconsin.  It's been a sub-par winter for their standards...and it's a neighboring state, and not very far away...yet it has looked and felt like winter since 12/1.  Most days have highs 15-35 and lows -5 to 15.  Nothing crazy - just consistent winter.  And, again, this is a bad winter for them!  A bad winter vs. climo there is a great winter vs. climo here - it sucks.

I think most people here do have some standards for how winter should be, though the standards aren't in the same league as yours.  And when standards aren't met, it's more like "oh well, better luck next year" instead of being as emotionally invested as you are.

imo, it's just not worth getting so invested in something that you can't control.  Unless you're making your own snow, you can't control how much snow there is in your backyard.  And even then, what about everywhere else around you?

Having high standards isn't a bad thing.  I do.  I just reserve that for things that I can control.  For example, I love lifting weights.  There are many mental and physical health benefits that not only serve me well now as I close in on 40, but will hopefully pay off all the way through old age.  I love the journey.  I love trying to get better.  Perfect linear progress doesn't happen forever, but you put the work in to be the best version of yourself.  

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

We just had our most sustained stretch of snow cover in the Detroit area this winter, 17 days. The other "stretch" was 7 days at Christmas. Just not a good year for snow cover. But I cannot believe anyone, beavis no less, would turn down a snowstorm because it'll melt in a few days lol. And by the way it is possible to roll off smaller streaks of snow cover in March, don't give up yet.

So I looked up some stats for Chicago.  The last time there was 3 consecutive days with 1"+ of snow on the ground in March was in 2017.  The last time there was 7 consecutive days with 1"+ of snow on the ground in March was in 2015. 

Didn't check other streak lengths for March, but I'm guessing there wouldn't be a lot of Marches that had snowcover for 2 weeks.

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

But it will melt in a couple of days anyway - what's the point?  I didn't realize it was April. 

By the time good snow threats show up for us (if they do.  I'm in show-me mode at this point) you can forget about having a sustained snow cover in our area.  Not happening.

34 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

That is true. I guess I'm just not seeing any sharp difference that would suddenly lead to snow to just shut off. I mean I have no horse in this race so I don't care, but I just have a feeling it's a lot of bad luck and DC is bound to get slammed one of these years soon. It apparently had no problem snowing in years past in what you or i would consider an inferno winter. An average DC Winter in the cold 1970s would be the warmest Winter on record for Detroit or Chicago. Everything's relative. 

I can buy the bad luck argument up to a point.  That's probably a factor to some degree but if DC's averages stay where they are or rise, it just keeps tipping the odds in the wrong direction.  I'm sure they will have seasons in the future where they come in at or above average for snowfall, because they can get it all in just 1 storm.

37 minutes ago, yoda said:

Spinach?  That's a hell no

The pepperoni and garlic pretty much disguises the spinach taste anyway.

This storm is basically like a summary of the winter around here, with the excitement missing in every direction.  The snow will be nw, the best precip will probably be west (and also maybe south), the highest winds will probably be south, and the marginal severe risk for tomorrow is currently placed just to my south and east.  

4 hours ago, stormtracker said:

 

Something is wrong with you two. 

Pineapple is fine by itself, but not on pizza.  

I'll tell y'all what a killer combination is on pizza.  Pepperoni, spinach and garlic.  And bonus, 2 of those are healthy.

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Very few people would move just for the weather, but if you actually did move North you'd be fine. Warming is less pronounced away from the ocean. 

Here is the average Winter temperature per decade over the last 100 years for DC, Detroit, & NYC. The temperature rise at Detroit, especially if you take out the cold period 1960s-80s, is minimal. Even DC/NYC are on par with where they were in the 1990s.

............DCA...DTW...NYC
1920s- 36.3 - 26.7 - 32.5
1930s- 37.9 - 28.1 - 34.4
1940s- 36.7 - 27.0 - 32.9
1950s- 38.6 - 28.5 - 35.3
1960s- 35.6 - 26.5 - 33.2
1970s- 37.7 - 24.6 - 33.3
1980s- 37.7 - 26.3 - 34.9
1990s- 39.3 - 28.7 - 36.4
2000s- 38.4 - 27.8 - 35.5
2010s- 39.8 - 28.2 - 36.1

Though for DC, the place that can least afford a rise, the 2010s are the warmest on that list.

5 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Apparently no one's noticed because all anyone cares about is snow, but there's a marginal risk almost up to I-80 in IL today and another one tomorrow for most of IN/OH/far eastern IL and far S Lower MI. 5% wind contour both days.

Can't rule out some severe reports, but on paper it's not as good as the setups that we saw earlier this winter in Iowa and Ohio.