Hoosier

1 hour ago, Chicago WX said:

lol, yeah. Of course Jan and Feb 2001 didn't torch, the pattern just went dormant. And the only "real" 3 events during those two months were rainers. 

I still remember complaining on WWBB about it.  

2 hours ago, mimillman said:

Yea and it didn’t get better 

2011-12 finished with 19.8", which was the lowest total for Chicago since 1948-49

14 hours ago, mimillman said:

I wasn’t here for 2011-2012 but this may look to beat that one in terms of futility 

Was curious so I checked.  Here's a fun fact.  ORD snowfall through 1/28

2011-12:  13.7"

2022-23:  13.6"

2 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

One of the most impactful winter storms to ever hit the state of Indiana. About 2/3 of the state received at least 10" of snowfall. Strong winds and the plummeting temps made travel nearly impossible. December was solid, but this event really seemed to kick off what would become one of the coldest and snowiest winters on record in the Midwest. Great times. 

This really is a true statement.  The peak snow amounts weren't extraordinarily impressive, but the coverage of the 10"+ amounts in Indiana was even a bit more widespread than the '99 storm.  And the aftermath with the intense cold and prolonged period of bad road conditions is something I'll always remember.  If we're grouping all-time winter storms for Indiana, it's a solid 1b tier storm with the main knock against it being a lack of high end amounts (say 18"+)

12 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Baroclinic zone moves to Canada. Ride the torch.

Cool.  Post the monthly.

1 hour ago, Chicago WX said:

Don't think February is gonna save us again, like the last couple of winters. 3rd year Ninas can be tough. Oh well, maybe we can find one decent event the rest of the way. Otherwise, here's to a better one for next winter.

It's almost like 2000-01, but without the spectacular December.  Just a minor difference.  

Nevermind.  I see a line in the climate report saying that the snow amount is as of noon.

Somebody not know how to measure at ORD?  0.2" snow on 0.09" precip with temps being in the mid 20s.  One of those can't be right.

4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Nice baroclinic zone with this.  It's 19 in Rockford with heavy snow falling, and sunny and 52 in Springfield.  Two whole different worlds of weather there.

We were talking about it the other day, and it's no surprise that the models generally underdid the warming to some extent south of the front.

Definitely think LOT will expand the advisory southward with the afternoon package to account for icing.

Temps could be around 28-30 in part of the icing area.  The warm layer aloft is not obnoxiously warm (no 10C or something like that) so raindrop temperatures won't be extremely warm.  This combined with rates that should be mostly light would suggest not much, if any qpf being "wasted"

6 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

HRRR keeps me all freezing rain now. Maybe a tenth of an inch of ice? I’ll be home before it starts thankfully.

Welcome to ice club anonymous.  Well... not so anonymous.  

The Canadian duo (global and regional) is actually fairly bullish on ice amounts in a narrow zone south of us, but they are high outliers at this point.

17z HRRR

3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

I think the models also were too slow to saturate with southward extent. The fact that the lead band already is 25-30+ dBZ down in ILX CWA could very well be a sign of things setting up a bit south later on. But even if the band is progressive, should be a nice burst of snow moving through later this morning into early to mid afternoon.

Definitely liking this evening too if the main band sets up northern tier and north during the afternoon.

And finally, the NAM indeed was out to lunch haha. I'd still hedge a bit south of where the HRRR is putting the zone of freezing rain this evening.

Expecting the advisory to be expanded south with the mid-late morning update and also the day shift will assess whether any part of northern Illinois in the WWA needs to be upgraded to a WSW.


 

HRRR has been creeping south since you posted that.  I'm more interested in the ice since the snow is going to be a non-event locally.  Best ice zone could end up just to my south, but it should be close. 

see f ass has a nice north-south temp gradient and is wetter than average.  I'd take my chances with its overall look.  

Dude, Dayton has had like 10" of snow in January.  

February is not allowed to not be active.  Come on boy, do your thing.

Got flakeage.  Gonna be very transient here though.

Mini weenie-band around Kankakee for Chicagowx.  

40 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The NAM remains very different from the other non CAM guidance at 850 mb, with a 1410 m 850 mb low, while other guidance is much weaker with 1440 850 mb heights. This induces stronger 850 mb winds and brings the 850 mb 0 line much farther north. I definitely don't buy the stronger surface trough and the front getting north of Chicago tomorrow night, which is also related to being stronger aloft.

There are times when the NAM is onto something with warm noses and freezing rain threats farther north, but this looks like the model struggling and being too amped with mass fields and gradually correcting. Might be a nugget of truth with the warm nose farther north than some of the globals show, though still think mainly south of I-80 for mixed ptypes.


 

You think you guys may need to increase the ice threat a little in central to southern cwa?  Current output would suggest maybe a tenth of accretion being possible in some areas.

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

i’m waiting in the shadows.


.

Your call is due by 9 pm tomorrow.

0.8" at ORD

Adding up to what will look like an okay snowfall month on paper.  

Compromise solution on models would put the freezing rain band right through here.  Ice amounts should be fairly light wherever it ends up, but modest precip rates and a warm layer aloft that isn't super warm likely means rather efficient accretion of whatever does fall.

19 minutes ago, mimillman said:

QPF comes down on GFS and RGEM, latitude stays the same 

Would anticipate somebody overperforming in the band.  

56 minutes ago, Baum said:

LOT Goes WWA for 3-6 I-88 and north

All things considered, it seems reasonable enough.  Tricky call for them, but at some point you have to make one.  Can't punt forever.  

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

we're actually gonna have a base for whatever falls tomorrow now

34 at ORD... will be a race to see if what fell today can hang on before temps drop.

Yesterday was the first colder than average day in Chicago this month... a whopping -1