Hoosier

The 15z RAP did shift a bit south, so maybe that is the start of something.

Insert Michael Jackson eating popcorn pic

Quite a remarkable spread between the globals and non-globals for an event starting tomorrow.

Probably fairly safe to discard the 00z NAM positioning.  Not that that's gonna help me a ton, but good news for folks near the southern edge of where the NAM places the better snows.

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I feel like anecdotally, the warm front/surge seems to get held up quite often along I-80/southern tip of Lake Michigan. Wouldn’t surprise me if that’s a big demarcation line. (Zero meteorological reasoning behind this thought, fyi)

Yes it does.  And with a shearing system/lack of a stronger surface low, I really can't see the 00z NAM positioning coming to fruition.  In fact I'd almost bet money against it and would favor something farther south.

37 minutes ago, roardog said:

These things tend to have over achieving temps south of the low track. Wherever the wind manages to go SW, there will probably be a mini torch. These can be frustrating in the spring when it’s 70F south of the front and 40F with rain and fog north of it. Thankfully, it’s January so I’d rather be on the cold side of it. 

Could definitely envision temps overperforming south of front, especially if cloud cover isn't too thick but perhaps even in that case as well.  Won't be precipitating south of the front during much of the day and there's not that much snow cover to melt.

10 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Nah. Won't see a snowflake most likely. Just a cold rain.

I'll go DAB and token zr for your backyard.

5 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

lol, hope it works out.

Easy first, and last call for MBY. 0.0".

Should've gone DAB to cover yourself.

55 minutes ago, Harry said:

Not to shabby here with 6.5 and the added bonus with the track further north is the flow backed quicker for LES to come out this way. Now have another advisory for up to 4 inches which will put the seasonal total over 50". 

Hope all has been well with everyone. 

I'm still in single digits for snowfall.  Pretty crazy.  You're not located THAT far from me.  Undoubtedly the lake has helped you out quite a bit.

The overnight snow on my driveway melted a decent amount today, despite heavy overcast and temps in the low 20s all afternoon.  

14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Going 6 imby with the near miss north 

Surprising.  I had you pegged as about 4" 

Fully bracing myself for only an inch or two, and even that may not come all at once as there could be a break in precip, or a bit of rain/freezing rain depending on temps before it ends as snow. 

Not counting on the GFS pulling this one out, but I guess anything is possible.

18z NAM bumping south.

Getting pumped for more snow that starts melting quickly again tomorrow.

Given the cold sfc temps, some good lift in the dgz and light winds near the sfc, would think that ratios would at least be 15:1 in the main band.

15z RAP has Moline in the upper teens and Peoria above freezing at 18z Saturday.  Nice thermal gradient to work with.

We'll be coming into the outer periods for the hi-res models today.  From a pure mby perspective, would be nice to see some support for a farther south solution even though reliability is questionable at this distance.

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

The snow overnight into today is from a separate disturbance. ORD is up to 0.5” as of 6AM.


.

Cracked double digits for the season.  All-time futility record out of play.  Snowy times.  What more can a winter lover ask for?    

I think I'd want to be in the northern burbs.  Of Chicago, that is.

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

This seems inflated, a result of IMO poor standard operating procedure for snowfall measurements. Should be every 12 hours, not 6. If snow depth is down to 2” within basically 12 hours of an event starting, how can a reasonable person say that 3.5” actually fell?
 

If the snow compacts/melts 24 hours after the event ends, that’s another thing. But during the event…it just doesn’t pass the reasonability test.

Again, I’m not questioning the measurer - just the SOP. 

When one looks at the historical records after today’s snowfall, it will only look like a slightly below normal snowfall month through 1/25. But that’s ridiculous, because it has hardly snowed in January and has been extremely mild. The worst January ever, but it won’t look that bad in the historical records. When situations like that can be allowed to happen, it should cause the experts to revisit the measuring methodology. 

Just wait until the end of the month when ORD finishes near or above average in January snowfall, despite the month being like +8 lol.  Never been anything like that in January for Chicago, as the warmest Januaries all had well below average smowfall... with many producing barely any snow.  January 1914 might be a comparison, but this January looks likely to finish even warmer.

I'm not sure how the 6 hour thing came about, but it is what it is.  I think it's a reasonable frequency for measurements in most circumstances.  

3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

That will end up being the final storm snowfall total.

Snow has been steadily melting, with the depth down to 2.0" now.

3.5" is the biggest calendar day snow at ORD since 2/2/22

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I was wondering about amounts around there.  Saw that IND just reported a snow depth of 2" but wasn't sure how much actually fell.  0.67" precip so far.

IND had 2.8" on 0.68" liquid, for a ratio barely over 4:1

That's not much higher than you would see with a typical sleet ratio.  

1 minute ago, Malacka11 said:

Pretty enthusiastic LOT discussion.

Even threw out a mention of 6+

9 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

How much did you get down there?

About 2.5" as of around 8:30.  Have had melting since then of course.

50 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Congrats to everyone satisfied with today's event. I'm just happy to see no grass + have something for the next two snow chances to stack on. 

Plenty of grass tips showing here.

If there is anything that should be in the NAM and hi-res wheelhouse, it may be an event that has a heavy fgen component to it like this.  That being said, would still suggest some caution in the outer periods of those model runs.