SouthBuffaloSteve

Life in the transition zone! lol! Haven’t gone out yet but eyeballing 2”... ehhh... Still early with another hit later in the day so can’t call ours a bust yet. .

Just about to get into here in the next few minutes wind is freaking roaring through.

Nice AFD from BUF! Satellite estimates of a warm patch in Lake Erie at 38* still? That’s a curveball! Although cold air advection will weaken some, delta T`s reach 13 degrees by Friday morning with 850mb temperatures dropping to -14C. Satellite estimates a "warm" patch of water on Lake Erie of near 38 deg F near Long Point. Low pressure will track from Lake Superior to Georgian Bay overnight and a cold front will move across Lake Erie. This shift in the wind will produce a lake response with lake effect snow showers beginning across western NY. This front will likely produce a light snow across the region while a lake band forms on a 250-260 wind along the Lake Erie shoreline into southern Erie and into Wyoming and Genesee counties overnight and be south of the City of Buffalo by the Friday morning rush hour, with the northern edge of the band producing at least light snow over parts of the Buffalo Metro. Snow will become heavy at times with snow rates 1 in/hr with localized amounts of up to 2 in/hr. This band will slowly move southward into the Southtowns and extreme northern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties through the morning. The band will likely lose some intensity as mid-level moisture diminishes however snow will continue. .

Nothing better than watching one of these bands forming out over the lake! Time for some storm beverages and hopefully the start of some snow! Cheers! .

Your still looking good so far... .

Wonky stuff going on. At least the Erie band is pretty much a lock give or take a few miles north/south... but boy are the models having a hard time even picking a general flow for your band. Thought the 0z runs would nail it down if anything they look more spread then before. .

Gentlemen start your engines!!! Almost GO time!!! .

It’s the lake effect “cone of uncertainty”. Probably just to cover them if the band is a tick north of where they are thinking. Yeah the gradient on the northern side is super extreme but that’s where you usually find the most impressive rates so it’s a risk worth taking to ride on that side of the band. 2010 and 2014 it paid off for me but then other times like Jan 2017 we get robbed getting 6” while 2 miles south they get 30”. That’s life in the transition zone! .

All I can say is I’m pumped for tonight and the upcoming few days! Just gotta get the kids to bed and do a beer run and then it’s snow time! Got the day off work tomorrow too so double pumped!!! .

Pretty good Ice Jam on Caz this morning. Closing in on bank full... .

Snow pack is gone but boy did that changeover happen quick! It’s ripping outside this morning! HUGE flakes!!! .

RDPS is a central Erie lock as well! BW looks like your gonna jackpot on this one! .

3k just lit up central Erie county! .

Easily lost half of it today. I didn’t think it would take as much of a hit as it did. Maybe 5” ballpark average snow depth still? .

BTV for the win!!! lols only please... .

Where you seeing that already? TT has been all buggy today. .

This one will be tricky, with a WSW flow focused on the Southtowns to near the Buffalo Metro region near the Friday morning rush hour. Snow rates may reach 1-2"/hr with this band An overachiever is overdue!!! .

Maybe watches will be up this afternoon? .

Did the entire Buffalo office call in sick today? Some good looks here for a hit close to the metro for the Friday AM commute and they still have the same BS forecast discussion up they did 24 hours ago...??? .

You NEVER see all three local stations with in house runs this close... .

Yeah weird when you read the KBUF discussion they are hyping a up a big event for your area but none of the models really support the idea. Maybe this is where the human factor comes into play? I know they keep talking about the convergence zone setting up down the length of Ontario maybe it’s not really picked up well by the computer? And on the flip side they down play any activity of Erie but if anything the models seem to show a nicer response coming of Erie. I’ll be interested to line up all the midday runs and see what the general consensus is... .

0z ICON coming in HOT! .

Even if the mixed precip doesn’t pan out the fact the roads are still crap right now add on some rain and they’ll be slick as heck tomorrow. Hopefully they’ll be out tonight scrapping them down and pre treating with some salt slurry. They did a pretty miserable cleanup job this past storm and I usually cut them a lot of slack. .

I get that but we’re always talking about the metro getting shafted when in all reality maybe we have our sights set too high. Maybe 2-3 12” storms is what we need to accept as the norm? .

I’d be interested to see what everyone around here considers a big one. Here’s our top 20 snowfalls. List was last updated 2011... I don’t believe 2014 would of cracked the list from KBUFs standpoint. Two big things stand out to me... 1. It only takes a 16” snowfall to make the top 20 list over 129 seasons of record. Think about it this past snowstorm we had I believe the 24 hour total came in at 12.7” that’s only 3.5” off from a top 20 snowfall! 2. Take a look at the top of the list... The majority of the 20” plus snowfalls all took place in our life time. Maybe somethings up? Maybe we just got spoiled? I think we all just have super high expectations of what the big one should be after 2014... Thoughts??? .