SouthBuffaloSteve

Can we hold the lake freeze until after this please? Perfectly aligned SW flow with 850s in the -30s! .

Just sucks Erie is gonna be out of juice right as we finally get the pattern we need going...

I know we’re all getting excited for the snow potential starting to stick as the models progress but holy smokes the extreme cold being advertised now to close the month looks down right dangerous! If it were to verify could be looking at all time records being set almost everywhere... -20F surface temp at DC? There all time record low is -5F that’s how anomalous this cold could be. We would have some modification with the lakes but still down into the minus teens... oh and lake responses are being highlighted! Have a feeling some of us will need to be digging tunnels to get out the door by February 1st... .

Hour 348 of the Fv3... WOW! A WSW lake band with surface temps at -18F? Is that even possible Starting to think something big could be coming soon! .

Look at that cold!!! Hmmm compares right up with 85 again! .

I was flipping through that thing a little earlier tonight. Love that book so much!

Jan 18 85 - Jan 22 85 .

Blizzard of 85 is #2 match at the moment. Pattern does look good but I’m staying away from that epic talk... don’t want to get up any false hope. Plus lake temp is going to take a huge blow the next few days... However! 84-85 had a super slow start to winter only 12” going into January... Jan 85 started warm and saw the lake hover at 40 for the first 10 days of the month. However mid month the pattern flipped the snow started falling and the lake dropped to 33 by the 19th when the storm started. The details right now line up almost exactly as they happened in 85. .

Fresh coating for the north towns tonight! .

Metro BUF cashing in! Just need another mile south to be in my backyard... .

I’d say metro window is mid November to mid January... We’ve had some good storms into January but looking date wise things abruptly seem to shut off January 20ish for us. 85 was Jan 19-21. 77 wasn’t lake effect. Looking back I can only find one somewhat impressive strictly lake effect event for Buffalo in the month of February. 1908 which saw a 2 day lake storm dump 22” downtown with winds gusting to 70 mph. That season only saw 27” during Nov-Jan but followed it up with a 36” Feb. .

Yeah that was pretty crazy for about 15 minutes there. Rain was pounding and the wind was roaring. Really died down now but still sounds gusty out there. .

2” of fluff here this morning! Not bad considering the poor luck I’ve been having so far this year. Looks like we might see some limited lake effect through the morning as well. .

Comming down pretty good here! So happy we have our Christmas!!!

Just 3.5” total here on the day. The AM band zoomed right over me to quick and the PM band seemed like it only snowed hard for 15 minutes... Oh well maybe next time...

Still coming down good at the airport. Looks like it might be slowing it’s northward jog. Doesn’t look like it’s intensifying to much though. Big question now is how long it stays north... .

0z runs of everything so far only brushing the metro and northtowns... bullseye is looking to be southtowns now! .

Neat meso low spinning on Erie north of Cleveland this morning. Can’t post radar gif for some reason. Makes me a bit nervous for tomorrow as 3k NAM showed this meso perfectly on the money yesterday and that is the one model being hesitant on bringing the metro good snow tomorrow. RGEM and HRDPS and solid hits. Guess we will have to wait and see! .

This would be like the most perfect metro hit would could hope for! Can’t ever underestimate a SW flow event. If it can get cranking early and not dance around too much could be a good hit.

Band placement is gonna be the variable on this one for sure. All 3 of the locals are showing the band pretty far north early Thursday almost a SSW flow going into Niagara County. Seems the traditional models keep the band more over the metro and are more generous with the snow accumulations. The NWS and all the locals really aren’t advertising much in the way of accumulations. I will say it is a bit odd. Ch4 model is showing the band on the north side of the city for 6 hours from 5-11 but only calling for 1-3”? .

Hmmm... let’s see what picture the high res paints today once this comes into range... AM Discussion from BUF... Flow will become southwest Wednesday night and lake effect snow showers will move northward into the Buffalo Southtowns and the northern Tug Hill region. Moisture will eat away at mid-level dry air overnight and the lake effect bands will intensify into Thrusday morning. Low temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20`s. As we move into Thursday, snow showers will continue to ramp up in intensity east of both lakes as the clipper moves into Quebec and moisture and ascent increase. Southwest flow will tap into the long fetch of both lakes and snow will likely become heavy at times across the Buffalo metro and Northtowns and northern Tug Hill through the morning. Winds become westerly by Thursday afternoon and snow showers will sag southward moving into the Southtowns and western Southern Tier and Tug Hill region. Snow will lose some intensity downwind of Lake Erie as it loses the long fetch of the lake. Temperatures will only climb a few degrees Thursday with highs in the low to mid 30`s. Moderate accumulations are expected Thursday especially east of Lake Ontario. The wind shift will limit time for locations to be under the influence east of Lake Erie. The Tug Hill region will see the longest duration of heavy snow Thursday. .

Yeah but the temp jump notes here took place midday on Saturday the 1st... 100% cloud cover and temp only in mid 30s... Sunday the 2nd saw the sun and temps in the mid 50s... Strange... .

Ok seeing this just really bummed me out... why would they stop these charts!!!!!???? .

I know this is at a different location but a strange 5 degree temp rise on Saturday... maybe some upwelling? .

My favorite book! I’m always flipping through it referencing old storms. Said he and some helpers spent months sifting through thousands of old newspapers at the library and history museum to chronicle all the storms. Kinda makes you think how with all of today’s technology we are losing our link to the past. Google wouldn’t be able to return any search results on probably 95% of the storms mentioned in the book. Only way to find any info would be good old fashion library hunting. Just try to google Buffalo’s biggest 24 hour snowfall 1995 and you can maybe find 1-2 articles on the storm. Quite honestly historical events prior to 2000 don’t have much record any more in the internet age... On a side note the author of the book also had some pretty interesting research topics published in the late 80s while he attended Oswego. Did a lot of work on lightning in lake effect storms and later helped to establish an improved national lightning detection network. .