SouthBuffaloSteve

lol I was thinking of heading down there myself...

I think that was just the artic front squall line. Looks like the show is getting ready to start in the next hour!

Maybe it’s better luck if your sleeping through it!

New map from KBUF... really cut back on totals! .

Reed always brings us good luck!!! That squall just roared in! Whiteout! .

Panic looks like it’s setting in. Already 180+ closings. Many schools already canceled for Wednesday and Thursday... .

Looks like winds are dropping a little. Have been 230 most of the morning now dropping off to 250. Band is looking incredible right now! Just catching some fringe bursts at the moment but it’s coming! .

I think biggest fear would be the fact everyone went to school and work today under the impression it wouldn’t get bad until 4-5 tonight. What if that band locks in over downtown all day and starts intensifying later in the afternoon. Talk about a Nov 2000 that turns into a full in blizzard the following day.

Well hopefully all the naysayers aren’t disappointed when this event over achieves! Complete whiteout right now at work on the East Side. As long as I can make it out of here tonight I got off tomorrow to enjoy!

Ok wow... so here is the next hourly frame... did it just put down 5” in one hour? 34@ up to 39” Death Band? This model is gonna come darn near close to 4’ in KBUF! .

Holy WRF Batman... That’s only through 36 hours... .

Wasn’t a frozen lake they just didn’t think parameters would support anything more than flurries. Conditions were all very marginal but the wind made even the low snowfall rates seem extreme. Nice event bad forecast call. .

Frozen lake doesn’t mean anything... 5 mile wide open patch of lake water was just enough to fire up a band that dropped 10-14” over central Erie county. .

I’ll just leave this here... So if this pans out an we see 2’ at KBUF that would only put us 4” off the mark for snowiest January? Seriously? Beating 77? For how depressing this winter has been I can’t believe we could possibly be in contention to possibly bust that record... .

Umm in shell shock that we could be looking at our third 12”+ snow in a 2 week period. This brings back memories of the late 90s and early 2000s when we would get the freight train of storms rolling through...

Can you say EPIC multi day event if this plays out!!! A potentially significant lake effect event off of Lake Erie will start Tuesday afternoon, with the potential for more than a foot of snow accumulation. 850 temperatures will drop from early morning values of around -5C to near -15C by the afternoon, causing increasing lake induced equilibrium heights and increased instability off of Lake Erie. A band of light to moderate lake effect snow should start to take shape by the early to mid afternoon on Tuesday off of Lake Erie. Lake effect snow will continue northeast of Lake Erie as cold air advection continues into the area. Lake induced equilibrium levels off of Lake Erie are expected to reach around 12kft or greater Tuesday night, resulting in the potential for heavy lake effect snow. Winds funneling down Lake Erie from between 240-250 degrees will continue to put the lake effect band northeast of the lake. Wednesday morning, ongoing lake effect snow off of both lakes will continue through the day. Lake effect off of both lakes will start out the day northeast of the lakes, and slowly expand/shift southward through the day. The polar low that will be centered over the Central Great Lakes on Wednesday morning. This reinforcing cold air advection will bring 850 temperatures down to near -30C by Wednesday afternoon. With this additional cold air advection coming to the region, guidance is suggesting lake induced equilibrium levels of up to 15kft off of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during the day on Wednesday. Wednesday night, lake effect snow will continue northeast of the lakes, only dropping south some from where the bands were earlier in the day. Strong winds will continue to cause blowing and drifting snow, with near blizzard conditions. Potentially heavy lake effect snow continuing into Friday east of the lakes. 850 mb temperatures are -20C or colder during this time, with decent synoptic moisture in the 850-700 mb layer. The only thing that will complicate things will be the growing ice coverage on Lake Erie .

Isn’t it bad luck to be in a BUF bullseye map this far out? Also are the times correct? That map says it only goes through 7am Wednesdsy morning??

Looks great out there! Starting to shift south! Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 922 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2019 NYZ012-019-020-085-280315- Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-Wyoming- 922 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2019 ...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING... NORTHERN CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES... At 918 PM EST, A narrow band of heavy lake effect snow producing snowfall rates of up to two inches per hour extended from Silver Creek, to North Collins to Holland. This band will shift slowly southward into Fredonia, Springville and Arcade through 1030 pm. Locations impacted include... Dunkirk, Fredonia, Springville, Gowanda, Silver Creek, Arcade, North Collins, Chaffee, East Concord, SUNY Fredonia, Lake Erie State Park, Concord, Collins, Portland, Yorkshire, Holland, Sardinia, Sheridan, Brocton and Eagle. This includes Interstate 90 between exits 59 and 58. .

Great looking band. Gotta be 2”/hr+ in there. Silver Creek up to Evangola our to North Collins and Boston. Looks pretty locked in. Go figure another overachiever the models and Mets missed. .

So much for the Erie band dying out... It’s intensifying once again... lol they just put up a WWA for southern tier! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 626 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 NYZ019-020-085-280730- /O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-190128T0900Z/ Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 626 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE... Northern Chautauqua, Northwestern Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. .

Hmm... BUF just doesn’t really seemed impressed with the lake effect for the metro on Wednesday. I mean will still are 2 1/2 days out but their verbiage is very lackluster... Record cold is certainly a possibility. West-southwest flow will lead to a lake response during this time with snow showers northeast of the Lakes Wednesday. It won`t be until Wednesday afternoon and evening that another clipper moves into the Upper Great Lakes and the lake response intensifies east of the Lakes by Thursday morning. These winds will also produce dangerous wind chills to -20F to -30 Wed-Wed night .

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=cgl&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

Finally some clearer skies. Not seeing too much ice. Anyone seen any MODIS views? All the links I have just go to the shutdown notice... .

That our they pay attention to the TV clowns who can’t grasp the concept of creating a simple snow map. .

Well now... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Buffalo NY 840 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2019 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... North central Erie County in western New York... Southwestern Niagara County in western New York... * Until noon EST. * At 834 AM EST, the Niagara River Control Center reported rising water on the Niagara River due to an ice jam. This will result in flash flooding in low-lying areas along the Niagara River. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... LaSalle Yacht Club, Cayuga Island, and the immediate river shoreline between North Tonawanda and Niagara Falls. Flood waters can also back up through storm drains. .