SouthBuffaloSteve

Suppose to work till 5 tomorrow thinking I’ll take a late lunch and maybe forget to come back instead. Let me know if your heading out. I’m planning to start down by the peace bridge and work my way south depending on how the conditions are.

Already a high wind warning posted 48 hours out... A major storm system will impact the region this period...with high winds, potential for lake shore flooding east of both lakes, and accumulating lake effect snow to close out the period. Headline changes...we will upgrade the high wind watch to a warning for the entire region as confidence remains high for very strong wind gusts. Model consistency, comparison to previous high wind events and a climatological favored track for high winds supports the decision to upgrade. A lake shore flood watch has been expanded to Jefferson and Oswego Counties where high waves crashing into the shoreline may cause beach erosion, and if the ice sheet on the northeast end of the lake becomes dislodged in the high winds...high waves may push into the Bays of Jefferson County. Also a northwest wind Sunday night and Monday may shift the ice sheet southward along the Oswego coastline, possibly creating an ice jam for creeks and streams that empty into the Lake. The 00Z models continue to track a deepening, and anomalously deep low across Lake Michigan and near the SOO Saturday night and Sunday, with a 65 to 75 knot LLJ passing across the region Sunday and Sunday night. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF as well as the Canadian model all deepen this low to around 971 to 972 mb Sunday evening. This deep low coupled with strong cold air advection (850 hPa temperatures dropping 12 to 16 degrees Celsius through the day), forcing from a passing isallobaric couplet and passing 1.5 PV tail (down to near 500 hPa) across the region will transport very strong winds down to the surface through the day Sunday, beginning in the late morning hours and continuing through Sunday night. As the 1.5 PV tail crosses the region Sunday afternoon behind a strong cold front, and potential for 60 knots of wind flow dipping below 1K feet, wind gusts at the surface could approach 75 mph downwind of Lake Erie and across the Lake Plain. Several past high wind events have shown up in the CIPS analogs, including high wind events of Feb 10th 2001, Feb 1 2002, Jan 9 2008. The Jan 9th event at the surface looks similar to this, with a surface low tracking across the SOO that deepens to around 971 mb. One difference is the surface high building across the Plains is stronger for our event Sunday...which will bring a tighter pressure gradient supporting confidence that wind gusts 65 to 75 mph will be possible. As the cold front crosses the region Sunday wind gusts will quickly strengthen from west to east, with damaging west-southwest gusts howling across the region. The strongest winds are expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. What will also make this wind event concerning will be the prolonged period of damaging winds...with gusts over 60 mph possible for a 12 to 18 hour period. This lengthy period of winds battering the region could increase the severity of the wind event. Strong winds will persist into Sunday night, this more of a west to west-northwest direction as the surface low tracks across southern Quebec. .

New thread time BW! Really think this wind event is going to be something big. NWS has been talking it up for almost a week now and every day the forecast gets more dire. I’ve NEVER seen point and click winds this high... 3 straight hours oh hurricane force gusts. Going to be a lot of damage depending where the strongest winds setup. .

These winds could really open the lake back up!!! .

There is an extreme wind warning product. 115mph threshold though... Extreme Wind Warning An Extreme Wind Warning is issued for surface winds of 100 knots (115 MPH) or greater associated with non-convective, downslope, derecho (NOT associated with a tornado), or sustained hurricane winds are expected to occur within one hour. .

Hurricane Force gusts on the point and click. If this verifies there is going to be a lot of damage. This is looking to be a long duration high impact event. I’ll be getting the power outage supplies rounded tomorrow. 10 straight hours of 60mph gusts forecast right now. .

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Meh... lake wanted to try and gave it a go and said naw not tonight guys... lol... .

Best guess on the ice is showing a lot of open water tomorrow afternoon... .

So a total crap shoot for the forecast tomorrow... Likewise, a few hours post-frontal, inversion heights increase and shear decreases, so lake effect snow showers will start to likewise develop in the Buffalo area and eventually east of Lake Ontario. Localized blowing snow will rapidly start to occur in areas that see snow, however there is little to hang your hat on at this point that would indicate much in the way of accumulation. So, the decision was made to stick with wind advisories rather than winter weather advisories for blowing snow and wind. Time will tell if that was the best approach, but for now it seems reasonable. .

Great event today! Another forecast challenge and an over achiever! For as rough as this season started the last 3 1/2 weeks has been incredible. No block busters... A thorn in our side with the lake freezing up it still has shaped up to a nice and now active winter. Wish we kept this snow pack around instead of the constant thaws and rains... All in all I’m content at this point and have my winter fill until next fall. Hard to measure with the drifting but averaging 5.0” from today. Not bad for a forecasted non event.

BUST! BUST! BUST! BUST! .

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I’ll post some vids soon just did a Jeb walk and has to turn around after 2 blocks. 3”/hr rates right now... This is insane!!!

So the snow band is strengthing and after back to back snow squall warnings they just toss up a special weather statement? Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 547 PM EST Wed Feb 13 2019 NYZ001-002-010>012-085-140030- Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville 547 PM EST Wed Feb 13 2019 ...AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE... Heavy snow showers will continue to traverse across the Niagara Frontier right through the evening commute. The combination of snow and blowing snow within these snow showers with winds gusting to 50 MPH will briefly reduce visibility down as low as a quarter mile at times. Drivers are urged to be alert for rapidly changing driving conditions over a very short distance. Please leave extra time to reach your destination.

That southern band is getting ready to light up the metro and south buffalo. Conditions here are worse now than at any point during the January Blizzard. I think its safe to call today’s forecast a BUST!!!

KBUF metar has posted 11 observations in the last 3 hours 20 minutes. 10 of those 11 observations were blizzard criteria conditions. Crazy we are boarder line in verifying a legit blizzard right now. .

That band hugging the north shore is gonna keep rolling into the metro for quite a while... .

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Buffalo Airport has issued a full ground stop due to zero visibility... .

Snow Squall Warning SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS BUFFALO NY 351 PM EST WED FEB 13 2019 NYC029-037-055-063-073-132102- /O.NEW.KBUF.SQ.W.0005.190213T2051Z-190213T2145Z/ 351 PM EST WED FEB 13 2019 Erie County-Genesee County-Monroe County-Niagara County-Orleans County- The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Northeastern Erie County in western New York... Niagara County in western New York... Orleans County in western New York... Northwestern Monroe County in western New York... Northwestern Genesee County in western New York... * Until 445 PM EST. * At 351 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from 11 miles north of Middleport to near Niagara Falls, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Whiteout conditions. Zero visibility in snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 30 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. * This includes Interstate 90 between exits 56 and 48A. Locations impacted include... Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Clarence, Lockport, Lackawanna, Kenmore and Depew. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Consider avoiding or delaying travel until the snow squall passes your location. If you must travel, use extra caution and allow extra time. Rapid changes in visibility and slick road conditions may lead to accidents. Slow Down! Rapid changes in visibility and road conditions are expected with this dangerous snow squall. Be alert for sudden whiteout conditions.

And the PM commute has officially turned into doggie poop! 100+ vehicles are currently stuck at a standstill on the skyway in blizzard conditions! .

Overachiever! lol... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 243 PM EST Wed Feb 13 2019 NYZ001>003-010-011-013-021-140345- /O.EXA.KBUF.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190214T0600Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Livingston-Allegany- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, Batavia, Geneseo, and Wellsville 243 PM EST Wed Feb 13 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 2 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. This may bring short bursts of whiteout conditions. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, Livingston, and Allegany counties. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Blizzard Conditions reported at KBUF top of the hour... .

Really kicking downtown. Rates gotta be close to 2”/hr at the moment... Nothing like driving up that skyway ramp into a cloud of white... .