SouthBuffaloSteve

I’m just really surprised about the winds! I thought being between those two bands we would have some big winds but it’s nearly dead clam...

EC really going after this one. The plow company that clears our plaza lot was just recalled by the county and had to send all drivers and equipment to EC Diaster Command for road plowing assignments across the county... This is just unreal that nothing is going on here. Not even any wind. Like being in the eye of a hurricane...

I updated this Piece of Garbage Map. I added that little 0” strip cause snow doesn’t fall there... .

Yeah dude this garbage! Watching the video from Hamburg/OP getting crushed and even downtown still getting hammered. I look out my window here... no snow no wind clear visibility and I can see those blue skies through the scattered clouds... Measured another 2.3” so up to a 8.7” storm total but still this bites!

Crazy how quick those winds whipped up. Like they came out of no where.

BLIZZARD WARNING!!!! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1212 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 NYZ010-310115- /O.UPG.KBUF.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190131T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.BZ.W.0001.190130T1712Z-190131T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0005.190131T0600Z-190201T0000Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190131T2300Z/ Northern Erie- Including the city of Buffalo 1212 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions and dangerously cold wind chills. Heavy lake effect snow expected. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. Wind chills as low as 25 below zero. * WHERE...Northern Erie county. * WHEN...For the Blizzard Warning, until 1 AM EST Thursday. For the first Winter Storm Warning, from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday. For the Wind Chill Warning, until 6 PM EST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow, frequently reducing visibilities to zero. Travel is strongly discouraged. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. .

Finally getting close to blizzard conditions. Winds are just a little below... .

Higher winds are moving in now... Almost looks like it’s shredding the two bands into more cellular streamers. At least I’m back into some snow again now... .

Back to just flurries here. Already south of me. We got transitioned hard on this one! Guess my last hope is seeing what time newly forming northern band will do. Probably setup 2 miles to my north. .

Yeah where are these big winds gusting to 45mph. It’s almost dead calm out there right now.

Still have 2 areas of convergence on Erie. Looks like a shoreline hugger. But we have this other band trying to fire along the north shore. Will be interesting to see how they interact and where it focuses the band. Not getting crushed here but a steady 1”/hr snowfall at the moment... .

Really? What gives with this! A literal snow dome over SB and WS. .

3.4” at 8am measure. Storm total is at 6.4” Snow on the Ground at 13.5” .

Slow it down kid! We still have all day here. Models missed the northern shift last night maybe they are too far south to early today? I’m thinking we’re still good for another 12”+ today! .

Just eyeballing until I go out to measure but looks like another 3” overnight so close around 6” total so far... Morning AFD from BUF. Guess we’ll have to see how long it sits over us and how intense it can get! Before we get into the details about temperatures and the brutal wind chill values...lets address the potentially paralyzing lake snows. As of 12z...a 220 flow was in the process of veering to 230-240 in the wake of an arctic cold front that cleared the Niagara Frontier within the past two hours. This will allow a somewhat disorganized twin band of moderately heavy lake snow to consolidate into a single plume of heavy steady lake snow that will sit over the BUF metro area and its immediate suburbs for several hours this morning. The band is forecast to settle a bit further south this afternoon... concentrating its impacts on the Southtowns and southern parts of BUF metro. Snowfall rates of one to two inches an hour will accompany the band...with rates of 3 inches an hour possible. If this were a November or December band...rates could even be higher due to stronger convergence over an even warmer lake. While the convective depth will be over 10k feet by midday... the extent of the frigid air will actually limit snow accumulations. Rather than having large dendrites like the band had overnight...the shrinking dendritic growth zone will lead to more plates and columns...which are more dense and accumulate at a somewhat slower rate. Nevertheless...daytime snow accumulations will approach a foot near the Buffalo metro area and points just south and east. The new snow will combine with wind gusts to 40 mph so that significant blowing and drifting will be likely. In other words...near blizzard conditions can be expected at times. .

Look at the feeder bands firing up our west. I think this band really explodes and settles in after 3am. .

No fluff bombs tonight... .

3D Super Doppler from the Mobile Weather Lab. Goofy but kinda neat! .

Nice! Maybe this is finally the event you guys up in the northtowns have been waiting for. That sucker is ripping through the city right now! Looks like another wobble north and starting to lock in. Anyone have any idea on rates? 2-3”/hr? Flake size is noticeably getting smaller. .

Nice write up from KBUF. I guess we need to see how high we can get the rates as there should be a good 6-8 hour maybe longer lock over the city... NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Overnight... Off Lake Erie...as expected the lake snows were temporarily disrupted by the passage of the wind shift/surface boundary early this evening... but have since redeveloped from Long Point northeastward to the city of Buffalo and the Buffalo airport. Judging from current radar trends which suggest another northward shift is imminent...this band should jog back northward into far Northern Erie and Niagara/Orleans counties over the next hour or so...before wobbling back southward again in tandem with another subtle wind shift between 11 PM and midnight. After that time the band should lock directly in over Buffalo, the airport, Northtowns, and points ENE into Genesee County near or just north of Batavia. Increasingly strong winds should also direct the band to just about Rochester overnight. Additional snow amounts, on top of what fell during the daylight hours, should amount to 5 to 9 inches under the band. At least through the overnight hours, this band will have minimal affect for the Southtowns, Boston hills, and much of Wyoming County. .

NICE! Here we go!!! .

Quick recap of the calls for tonight from the local stations... 2... WHY do they let her do the weather?! Her forecast was horrible... 4... Nice forecast from Santos. He’s thinking band stays city and north all night... and puts down 8-14” by sunrise tomorrow right through the metro. Aggressive but not over the top accumulation calls... 7.. I think Andy has the bet forecast. Maybe a little conservative but a safe bet as they have it moving around a lot more overnight. I like how they have the really close zoom in on the snow maps. .

Did you see this? Should save this so when people says where’s the transition zone you can go right in the middle of those two jackpots .

3.0” here so far today at 10pm. It’s like eerily calm and quiet outside at the moment. Looking at radar kinda nervous that band is going to just get pushed onshore off the lake and we will have to wait for another one to fire up... .

Yes... Looked like he was down on Furhman Blvd by small boat harbor. Tift takes your under route 5 and out to the blvd. good luck finding him....