SouthBuffaloSteve

New HWO from BUF... A few periods of lake effect snow are expected from Wednesday through Thursday night east and northeast of Lake Erie. While some accumulations are likely during this time period, it remains too early for finer details on amounts or band placement. .

Don’t see that often in December around here! .

6-8” at KBUF? What are they smoking with this map? .

And the NAM says let’s retrograde! .

I’m sure things are gonna flip flop a dozen times over the weekend but at least we might have something to watch here! CIPS is popping up some nice analogs as well... .

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... There is high confidence that temperatures will average below normal...possibly by as much as 10 degrees...during this period. This forecast is supported by strong consensus among the medium range ensembles that a large closed low centered over the Upper Great Lakes at the start of the period will take several days to `open up` and rotate out across the Canadian maritimes to the open waters of the North Atlantic. H85 temperatures over the Lower Great lakes during this period will average between -8 and -10c...which will certainly be low enough to support lake snows downwind of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. While there is some spread in the variance of the steering winds between the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles...there is the risk for a prolonged westerly fetch lake snow event. This would target the Tug Hill and portions of the Southern Tier with several feet of snow...so stay tuned for refinements in the forecast and possible watches. .

When the Sabres are on track to earn more points than Buffalo will see in inches of snowfall it’s kind of a big deal... lol...

I could mow my lawn tomorrow if that answers your question... lol

And go another 3 miles to your WNW and I’m here under 4” so far...

BUF busted again! Sucks we can’t get anything going for us this year. I know it’s only Nov but we’re in our prime window right now to make or break the season. .

Plenty of time for this to go poof... Finger crossed we are so overdue for a good metro storm!

Maybe nature is saying it’s not time yet... Just drove through the park and the amount of trees still leafed is remarkable. .

Are you getting any additional accumulation? Still just a few spotty flakes mixing in here. Rain has almost erased the little snow pack we had. I’m with Nash let’s torch for a week after Thanksgiving and press the reset button first week of December and try again... .

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Erie band is just cranking right now. Moving north into the metro. Just getting into the north side of the band here now and it is pouring rain. Have a few small wet flakes mixing in... Let’s see what happens... .

Can’t believe this nice looking band is being wasted on RAIN AGAIN! .

Officially 2.5” here on the board this morning. Guess my grass is long as it’s still sticking up through the slop in the yard... BW you still getting snow in that lake band? When it pushed through here earlier we just had plain old rain... .

Grass is ALMOST covered here finally! Still some light snow so Im pretty confident we have 1” OTG by sunrise... .

About half that at the airport at 1am... 0100 AM SNOW ROCHESTER AIRPORT 43.12N 77.68W 11/16/2018 M4.6 INCH MONROE NY ASOS .

Alright... weekend lake effect potential for KBUF... over/under 1”? [emoji848] .

What’s it doing around BUF for everyone? Just left work on the east side Broadway Bailey area and it was moderate freezing rain I actually had to scrape quite a bit of ice off my truck windows... Got home to South Buffalo and it was sleet pellets no sign of freezing rain... Talk about being board line temps for p type. Guess my overachiever call is gonna FLOP! .

NAM looking good has this all snow around BUF now only a brief mix along shoreline south of city... .

Feel this one will end up being an overachiever... BUF 7.2” ROC 8.9” SYR 10.5” Love the added juice idea from the NE flow... .

Could be interesting... all the meso have surface temps 32-35... if we end up getting a snowpack from this storm maybe it can nudge temps just low enough for snow vs rain. Either way looks to be a short lived swing through and push on shore setup... Still the active pattern continues! .

If your using an iPhone try an app called Tapatalk. It’s a message board app and supports this forum so you can post right to it. Lot more phone friendly that the regular webpage. Plus for whatever reason when you use the app there appears to be no size limit on posting pictures. .