SouthBuffaloSteve

The Buffalo office has been experimenting with snow warning polygons for the past two years. Similar to thunderstorm and tornado warnings. They do display them on one of their pages but I think they are hung up on how to relay the more specific warning to the public. Just think when they issue a thunderstorm warning it’s still issued and communicated county wide not just town by town. And even if it was town by town here in Buffalo when we have those sharp northern gradients you can have warning snowfall on the south side of some towns and a dusting on the north side. I really don’t think they can properly fine tooth the system any more than they already do just too many variables and too many unique situations. If you live in a snow prone zone the tug or the ridge you know when it’s going to snow and how it gets you don’t need a warning product too tell you that. Here’s a link to the snow polygons by the way... https://www.weather.gov/media/buf/2016ExperimentalBUFLESPolygonPDD.pdf .

Based of 10pm spotter reporting around Erie. I guess it could fall in line but not usual to see an early season large band event drop the most snow at the lowest elevation along the shoreline with the warming lake nearby... .

Portion of the 90 is being shut down... .

Disappointing if it was just a few degrees colder we would be getting destroyed right now. Just had some more thunder and a lightning strike. .

KABOOM! We have thunder! .

Right! Some heavy duty cells rolling through. Winds are really picking up as well. Kinda surprised these haven’t put down any graupel yet... .

Right on schedule with the band starting to fire up. Still holding at 41 at KBUF... don’t see the transition starting any time too soon... .

The lake is gonna do what the lake wants to do tonight. It should be exciting to track this with the uncertainty... on the same hand I’m holding onto some amount of disappointment just in case this thing doesn’t make it up to us in the metro...

We haven’t had a hard freeze yet here and from what I recall seeing we have only had one frost so far which was last week. Had a really good hour of snow gave everything a good coating but the rate has slowed down and the costing is melting fast. Nice welcome to the snow season for sure!

Bit concerned if we do realize the higher end of the 3-5” closer to the city we might have some tree issues. The winds the other day cleaned off many trees but there are still numerous trees here that are still rather full... .

WWA posted! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 353 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 NYZ010-011-091700- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0060.181110T0800Z-181110T1800Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia 353 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. Generally along and south of a Buffalo to Batavia line. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Visibilities will be reduced in falling and blowing snow. .

And just like that the snow potential for BUF goes POOF! 12k tries to get it close to the metro but the 3k keeps it well south... oh well... nice discussion from NWS on the reasoning behind the model spread. The upper level trough will slowly move eastward and across our region through Saturday. This sets the stage for the first significant lake effect snows of the season. Model guidance is in poor agreement, with a wide spread in the track and strength of this low leading to uncertainty in the wind direction. The model disagreement is likely due to the close proximity of a closed, or nearly closed, 500 mb low which is often challenging for model guidance to accurately predict. The most noteworthy model difference is the NAM which forecasts southwesterly winds which would suggest a greater potential for snow in the Buffalo metro area Friday night into Saturday. Although it is possible this will verify, the overall model consensus suggests it is less likely to verify. It is more likely that the steadiest snows will be across the traditional snow belts south of the Buffalo metro area, and east of Lake Ontario along the Tug Hill Plateau. .

Don’t be knocking the BTV gotta be able to dream a little. Intensity and output l is usually way over done but it generally does a pretty good job with band placement and timing IMO... Hopefully things clear up tomorrow when we get some more hi res in range. RGEM should catch it on tonight’s run but looking at the same time frame of the last frame it’s almost identical to the same time on the NAM and maybe a hair colder upstream... so maybe some agreement? .

Don’t think I’ve ever seen the BTV pop reds in a LES band before... I’ll really be bummed if this busts... .

Is the NAM tainted or something? Why is no one else mentioning the metro LES potential yet? NWS is ignoring it... 4 & 7 both show the band setting up well south of the metro Saturday afternoon. Only slight mention was Hammer on 2. He ran their in house model with the NAM data and showed it popping the LES band over the metro early Saturday morning but he said that happening was unlikely... .

12NAM still a lock! Solid 6-12” warning level event for the metro on the table! .

That’s a transition zone special! Should be waking up to a winter wonderland Saturday morning! Hype level is a solid 9 out of 10 right now!

6NAM output 6”+ at BUF... .

In range of the good ol BTV now! Sets up a real nice looking band over BUF... Goes all snow by 4am and still on the south side of the metro at 7am. Might only be a couple hours but let the hype commence! .

CPC analog has been screaming November 76 the past few days... Also hitting on mid Nov 2000 which was a solid lake effect period. .

Foot of synoptic snow in November? Can’t remember the last time that happened for BUF..??? Maybe my memory is just fuzzy? GFS wants to pop a big one. Time will tell! .

Pretty much the same list for me... little different order... 1. Oct 2006. The destruction was just so crazy. Never forgot that sound of the trees breaking. 2. Nov 2014. First time I can ever remember actually being snowed in and you really couldn’t leave your house for 2-3 days. 3. Dec 2001. Just so much snow that week! 4. Dec 2010. 40” in 24 hours here in SB just crazy. My favorite stat on this one was the sharp northern edge of the snow. Buffalo airport only had 2” at one end of a runway while the other end have over a foot! 5. Dec 21. 2008. Throwing a curveball here. Strong multi band storm with very high winds and near blizzard conditions. 12-18” widespread across Erie County with 3’ drifts. Reason this storm is on my list it’s the only time I’ve ever been stranded while diving. Was trying to take the 219 home to West Seneca from Springville that night. Star filled skies leaving Springville to a wall at the Rice Road exit. Took me over 2 1/2 hours to make it from there down the hill and to the Boston State exit. Was a scary drive you couldn’t see anything! https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2008-2009&event=H .

This is the one I am referring to... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php .

CPC analog keeps hitting on Nov 2003. Not a huge snow producer but an intense early season band that had a ton of thunder and lighting. 4-6” event with 10” our in Alden. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2003-2004&event=A .

Excitement level is building for sure. GFS has been pretty accurate by the 10 day mark so far this fall on most of these storm systems. .