SouthBuffaloSteve

BTV likes the idea as well! Latest high resolution guidance also suggests a Georgian Bay band will meander through the area between Buffalo and Rochester, possibly extending down into the western Finger Lakes. This may drop a few inches locally on Thursday if the band is able to remain in one location for a few hours. .

Nice share BW, great discussion. Somethings gotta give if we’re ever gonna salvage this winter. Was looking back to this time last year and looks like we were in the same boat with a hit and miss start to winter. Pattern started to swing this week last year with some synoptic storms, much like we are seeing this week this year as well. Then the GFS popped this fantasy multi day lake effect blizzard at 360 hours. We laughed it off as the models were sucking just as bad last year. Ended up verifying almost perfectly. We’re overdue for a long range fantasy storm to lock in and verify. Nothings been sticking run to run yet but getting some interesting looks. Last run try’s to develop a lake effect event. Lake Erie is at 38, 4 degrees above average. The western basin still has a nice pool of 40 degree plus in place. Will take a hit this weekend for sure but nice to still have the lake in play again going into late January. .

Ok... Who broke the NAM... .

Back to back runs GFS brings that slug of freezing rain closer our way... .

RGEM is only one I’m seeing intensify that blob like that over Erie. Rest are just showing some stray streamers passing through. Guess it’ll depend how much the lake can fire that disturbance up. .

Well we can all agree on one thing... This weekend is gonna be a good old fashion wash out! .

Nah... The D fell asleep in the 2nd half. Rule of thumb all season has been score 17+ and the D should be able to hold them them to... Played way to conservative in the 4th... .

Yes! Time for the locals to start the dart throwing contest! Props to Mr. Santos he gets the “sticking yer neck out there” award! Nice 3-5” zone from northern Buffalo metro to the western Rochester burbs. Also showing we will be over to all snow by 8am Saturday... yikes... Good Luck Channel 4! .

You can look at the total snow... the average temperature... but what about combining them and looking at how we trend for days with snow on the ground. I think this is a better gauge on how well we remember a certain winter or period of winters. Growing up in the 90s it seemed like we had awesome winters and I can remember more years than not that we would have snow on the ground for long periods. Building snow forts and sled hills off the garage roof that stayed for weeks not a weekend. Anyways found these on the BUF climate page and I think they actually back up this idea... Average Days with 1” over this period was 71.2 days. Big thing that stands out here in the consistency of 20 straight seasons from 1990-2010 where every season had 50+ days. Now notice the last 8 seasons... 4 of those 8 we failed to see 50 days. Average days with 6” over this period was 24.6 days. Again can see the reduced frequency over the past 10 seasons compared to the 90s and 2000s. Now the 12” chart is a real eye popper. Average days for this period was 8.6 days. Which is heavily skewed by the monster winters in the 70s. From 1993-2004 we had 5 out of 11 seasons with 10 or more days having 12” on the ground. Over the next 15 seasons following this we would only see 1 more season with over 10 days of 12” on the ground. Can cut the numbers any way you want but I think it does show we are having more trouble keeping a snowpack on the ground in the past few years regardless of where we shake out for actual snowfall for the season. .

What a joke. 30 seconds of pingers... 30 seconds of heavy big fat flakes... and back to flurries. I was determined to not lay a goose egg on this one so I stood there for a good five minutes until a flake fell perfectly against my ruler. 0.1”... 2 second rule before melting still counts right? .

UPDATE: Transition to a lake effect event occurs this afternoon as 2- 3 hour burst of moderate to heavy snow is expected across the area. Based on upstream observations in northern Ohio and the Niagara Peninsula in Ontario and latest hi-res guidance including the HRRR which has good handle on upstream trends, visibility could drop to less than one-half mile in heavier snow and winds may gust 30-40 mph as the snow moves through along track of shortwave rotating around parent upper low over the Upper Great Lakes. With short duration expected to the snow, going to handle this with Special Weather Statements and possibly Snow Squall Warnings if conditions warrant. Based on the guidance, seems best chance of needing Snow Squall Warnings will be from the Genesee valley eastward by late aftn, but will continue to monitor radar trends. Main takeaways from this initial burst of snow this afternoon is brief poor travel due to mainly low vsby and gusty winds. Also even with marginal temps in the lower 30s for snow accumulation there is some potential for quick snow accum on untreated roads. Already saw narrow band of snow sliding across Niagara county currently produce some snow on roads btwn St. Catherines and Niagara Falls an hour ago even as temps there were in the 34-36F range. .

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1001 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 ...BURST OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW VISIBILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... A burst of moderate to heavy snow is expected by early this afternoon over western New York and by mid to late afternoon across the Genesee valley. Expect sharply reduced visibility below a half mile during heavier snow showers, along with wind gusts over 30 mph. The worst conditions are expected over the Niagara Frontier and western Southern Tier, including the Buffalo metro, between 11 AM and 2 PM, then over the Genesee valley, including the Rochester metro, between 1 PM and 4 PM. It is also possible snow squall warnings may be needed later today in some areas as this snow moves through. Expect the snow to transition to lake effect snow showers by early this evening. .

Seeing some nice lake enhancement with the precip blob over Southern Ontario. Actually a pretty good line firing up heading into Niagara County right now. Think this is going to be our only way to see any snow here today is to hope for some bursts like that to work through... .

HWO issued for metro BUF tomorrow. Good call on this! Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 959 PM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 NYZ010-011-010300- Northern Erie-Genesee- 959 PM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A band of snow will move through the area during Tuesday afternoon. Although snow accumulation will only be a couple inches, there may be a burst of heavy snow which could impact the evening commute. They added a blurb in the AFD as well... There may be a burst of heavy snow across the Niagara Frontier Tuesday afternoon with the passage of the upper level trough. Even though it will not be cold enough aloft for pure lake effect snow, mesoscale guidance suggests a convergence band may develop down Lake Erie with a potential for a brief period of heavy snow. Snowfall amounts should be in the 1-3 inch range since the band will be moving, but timing is such that it may impact the early portions of the evening commute in the Buffalo metro area. Adjusted the HWO to reflect this risk. .

RGEM has a nice but quick moving band setting up Tuesday night off Erie. Will be a close call on this thing swinging through the metro around midnight for the ball drop. Even if it’s not a big snowfall could end up being a neat event impact wise. .

Beast of a storm brewing! .

38 at Buffalo Harbor. 2* above average. .

That storm was our first measurable snowfall in the metro on the last day of December. Record low November and December monthly snowfalls. Things really got going middle of the month with a 10 day stretch dropping over 4’ along the Chautauqua Ridge and far Southern Erie County. Little break than another decent shot of lake snows mid February with the lake still open. The storm before Valentines Day was pretty rough going in the South Towns. .

Aside from a lake band hitting during a Bills game, the second biggest impact type event would be one hitting the metro during the New Years Eve ball drop. Guess it’s in the realm of possibility right now. Almost happened a few years ago just couldn’t get cranking until New Year’s Day. Ended up being a decent snowfall for the immediate south towns. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2015-2016&event=C .

The disappointing part of this winter so far to me has been the constant teases we keep getting. Long range picks up a few nice features... holds them consistent until we hit a week out and then it just slowly rips them apart to nothing for us. The LES setup for New Years that has hung on for days now even looks to be questionable. Looks like our only saving grace will be to hang onto the above normal lake temps and hope we can get a cold outbreak later into January like we did last year to just get all our snow in one quick shot. .

Crazy nice weather today. Saw people golfing at Caz Park this afternoon.

We always joke about the transition zone here but that little strip of Lackawanna South Buffalo West Seneca really can be a sweet spot. Personally I think that area can see the highest snowfall rates from an Erie band. Don’t know if it’s an orographical feature or maybe a added convergence area helping fire up the band in the spot? Even on a pure SW full fetch event like Nov2000 the snowfall rates only maxed at 4”/hr. The transition zone area seeing 3”/hr rates can be pretty common. The first January event last year we caught that surprise southward shift and the band intensified to 3-4”/hr rates over us with a foot in like 4 hours. Can also remember many storms here with 6”/hr rates all the way up to 8”/hr rates like Nov2014. This area is also common spot for moving bands to stall out and intensify over for short periods of time. And yes the cycle seems to be a decent more memorable storm every 4-5 years hitting this area. .

WOW... that squall line from earlier this morning made it all the way down to NYC... Entire NYC metro area under a snow squall warning... crazy video of the skyline being engulfed right now! .

It’s a great system to alert the public but I thought it was setup to be zone specific rather than just county based. I’m a good 20 miles from that warning polygon and still got it. I know the flash flood warnings only come through this way when your inside the polygon. Maybe not setup properly? Or maybe it is right to alert you if your traveling? Got me all excited just then but the radar says only a few flakes for my location.

What in the blue blazes. Snow squall warning just set my phone off emergency alert off... .