SouthBuffaloSteve

I think that was the storm he gave up early on and went to bed and missed the band camping out over SB WS. We had 3-4”/hr rates.

Canadian is identical to the rest! Winds will be strong enough to push that band inland more. Great look!

Don’t you freaking dare! This storm could be a transition zone special! When we jackpot... WE JACKPOT!

GFS... Same story... Welp I think it’s safe to say we have MODEL AGREEMENT! Crazy the models all match earlier KBUF map to a T! Might need to make a few bumps and tweaks to fine tune but I like how we looking right now!

RGEM follows suit and locks in over metro and south-towns for hours. Don’t think it’s pushing that band far enough inland... 2’ sweet spot right over BWs head!

ICON... Floats a nice band back and forth across the south towns and metro. Output is almost identical to KBUF map from tonight!

Ohhh!!! So much nicer in high def!

New KBUF map... good call based on the current info IMO...

It’s one thing if the stations “on air” do a comparison of the model output to show the general public the wide range of forecast possibilities... But Ch7 literally just posted that to their Facebook with the title “Here’s our updated forecast map, the bullseye is now well south of Buffalo”. That’s very misleading in my opinion and giving zero credit to the Buffalo NWS. In fact watching the loop they are saying all of our snow will come early Friday from the synoptic and we will see zero lake effect in Buffalo...

Ch7 just posted an updated accumulations map. Very conservative through Saturday afternoon! This is synoptic and lake effect combo. In fact they are giving Rochester more snow then Buffalo???

The warning was only issued 2 hours ago. These forecast graphics they have now were done hours ago. Maybe by 5 or 6pm news they will have updated.

I liked the RGEM run. Nice stall over central Erie for quite a while. Puts me right in the northern fringe of the band. Would rather be there than the southern fringe of a north towns band.

It tries to bend that band SW but not until Saturday PM now...

3k Synoptic. This is pre lake effect. Look at that north south gradient. Warning criteria synoptic on the west side and less than an inch on the east side.

Assuming they think the south areas are more likely to get some synoptic snow (guessing 4”?) so they went WSW and added the 4” to include both events. But north areas they don’t feel confident in synoptic so just doing the LES Warning. They always make it so confusing when these smaller events overlay a larger one. It’s this or pop a LES Warning for all and toss in a WWAdvisory once the synoptic hits. Either way it’s confusing to the public... IMO...

BTV went offline 12/7... RIP...

Just waiting for the nightly runs to start up... Not much more to do at this point... The wife claims we’re going to wrap gifts tonight once the kids are asleep. Doubt that so model watching and beers!

I know we touched on this but where the hell does pivotal have KBUF on the map. 98% of Erie County is showing over 12”, with 30” max in the bullseye... Downtown and Airport locations would both be in the 16-20” range... Where are they pulling 7.9” from?

Fell free... but I think this room is currently filled with a half dozen Buffalo snow junkies going bonkers right now! lol...

3/3 on the 18 runs for huge hits! GFS gives everyone in Erie County some lovin with that! Foot county wide with 2’+ strip somewhere in north central Erie.

And it’s still going at the end! Talk about a laser right through the north side of the city! This is awesome!

18NAM looks great!

Did they say...

Paging the KBUF office!!! How’s that update to the forecast discussion going after that cluster of runs...