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SouthBuffaloSteve

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Everything posted by SouthBuffaloSteve

  1. SouthBuffaloSteve
    Where are you seeing that? I’m only seeing a brief shift to WSW winds late Friday Early Saturday that brings the band close to the metro but never into it... Looks like a south of the south towns band to me...
  2. SouthBuffaloSteve
    It’s more of a 24-30 hour window of roaming the metro. One thing all the models have agreed on this morning is to push back the starting time frame a good 12+ hours.
  3. SouthBuffaloSteve
    Great run on GFS for big metro hit! I can’t wait to see what camp the NWS is going to take. Every model is giving a slightly different output with widely different outcomes... Just remember 24 hours ago the NWS was “tossing the GFS”. Let’s see what says the Euro and Canadian?!
  4. SouthBuffaloSteve
    Timing is getting all out of whack now! RGEM doesn’t flip us to snow until Friday AM with virtually no synoptic and doesn’t fire up the lake band until Friday night... It’s being very bullish on pushing the lake effect band onshore but even so it keeps it hung up all the way in Ontario...
  5. SouthBuffaloSteve
    We need to be keeping our eyes on that pulse that is floating around the upper lakes behind the primary. That’s what is gonna give us our wind field direction. Looking mighty fine so far to me!
  6. SouthBuffaloSteve
    Same model, different resolution and it yields a 100 mile variance on the location where the front lies at the same hour interval. 3k says synoptic snow makes it to Buffalo. 12k says it only makes it to Cleveland. Timing of the front and the associated wave riding it are going to be huge factor.
  7. SouthBuffaloSteve
    Nice graphic on Chan 7 showing the snow possible BEFORE the lake effect starts. Not sure which run they are based off, but quite the spread possible.
  8. SouthBuffaloSteve
    No issues with that first map. Nice broad brush and then once we get into the T-48 hours tonight and into tomorrow they can narrow in the target zone and up the totals as needed. Easier to hold your credibility bumping up then cutting back...
  9. SouthBuffaloSteve
    Interesting look. Only a brief hit Christmas Day... but then metro get hits on Saturday flow... including a solid 4-6” synoptic looking at a foot across all Erie county, with a 2’ bullseye somewhere Hamburg to South Buffalo.
  10. SouthBuffaloSteve
    Looked wide west, but just really slowed down on RGEM. SW flow is there but looking like a short lived window...
  11. SouthBuffaloSteve
    NAM is just a LITTLE west... ahh the f*’kery the next 90 minutes will bring us...
  12. SouthBuffaloSteve
    Looking just at Christmas Day numbers are pretty low... Throw the 24th in too for a “24 hour total” and BUF had 25” in 2001 storm.
  13. SouthBuffaloSteve
    Only way it loads for me is starting on the national view and zooming in... SLOWLY... it’s a hot mess. You can download free radar apps that are better than that. So many other good sites and apps, haven’t used the NWS radar in long time.
  14. SouthBuffaloSteve
    They brought back the lake effect snow warning but the watch and advisory just get lumped into winter storm header now.
  15. SouthBuffaloSteve
    Liked your comparing this to the 2010 event. Very similar indeed. I would easily take a repeat on that one (sorry to the north-town guys).
  16. SouthBuffaloSteve
    As much as I want to get of quarantine and back to work... I guess tracking and chasing some snow bands wouldn’t be the worst way to finish out my last few days. Let the hype begin!
  17. SouthBuffaloSteve
    Key part is that initial low giving up as it moves north with a new low popping up over Lake Superior and just floating through the upper lakes. Front can go as fast and as east as it wants. We get that little area behind it to kick in the SW flow then BUF cashed in regardless! Seeing that feature also on the RGEM as well.
  18. SouthBuffaloSteve
    RGEM is taking middle of the road path. Little slower than NAM but faster than ICON...
  19. SouthBuffaloSteve
    $5 says GFS trends west while Euro goes to East... It would only make sense...
  20. SouthBuffaloSteve
    At least they reply on Twitter...
  21. SouthBuffaloSteve
    “East of the Lakes” is a fine statement. We are still 5 days out on this storm and a jog 100 miles East or West changes the entire setup and who gets the snow. Until we get into short range we’re gonna keep seeing the drifts back and forth. Everybody’s still in the game at this point.
  22. SouthBuffaloSteve
    Euro has nice 18 hour window for WSW - SW flow on Christmas Day off Erie...
  23. SouthBuffaloSteve
    “Coldest airmass of season pours across the region on Christmas Day with synoptic snow giving way to moderate to heavy lake snow east of both lakes. Travel likely to become an issue...mainly from southern suburbs of Buf to PA line...and in the Watertown area. Heavy lake snows Christmas night east of both lakes. Cap 5-10k ft so rates >2" likely with thunder/lightning possible (esp east of Lk Ont).”
  24. SouthBuffaloSteve
    Should be interesting! We might have nothing to play for week 17 except knocking the fins out. Also a good chance we could rematch the following week in the wild card. The Bills vs Dolphins days of the late 80s through mid 90s was the best! Was fun to have a rival and not just the stupid Patriots that beat everyone every year.
  25. SouthBuffaloSteve
    Would you take a snowless winter for a bills super bowl? Hell Yeah!
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