SouthBuffaloSteve

HRRR extended has a nice band cranking by 5-6pm Friday and already outputting 3” by the end of the run at 8pm. That keeps going in the same spot all Friday night and into Saturday... could be some big totals. As mentioned the winds reducing ratios could drop the snow total but still this setup is starting to look very promising!

12k output is a low resolution mess. 3k just caught onto first couple hours at 18 run and looked much better.

Only a little ice in the western basin. She’s wide open for Saturday.

Drop it like its hot! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 238 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville 238 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches or more in the most persistent lake snows. Winds during the heaviest lake effect snow Friday night into Saturday could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in considerable blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * WHEN...From Friday afternoon through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute on Friday.

Mike C has some concerns on moisture for Saturday. NAM follows this only popping the band for a few hours before drying it up pretty quick Saturday morning.

GFS showing a longer duration round 2. GEM showing shorter round 2, then a synoptic/coastal, then a round 3 of lake effect. Anyway you cut it gonna be a fun 7 days around here.

GFS is nuts! Saturday LES... Sunday synoptic... then Mon through Thursday band shifting north and south every 12-18 hours.

GEM says SW flow ho!

So if PM runs keep the LES setup... do we see watches posted in the morning? wOw!!!

Too early to start talking about the LES potential around day 10? Or is everyone still comparing hot dogs and arguing over dipping sauce?

Hmm... glad I don’t have any hopes then.

Wow... take a few days off from checking in on the weather forum and had to do a double take on which bookmark I hit... boy what did I miss...

Another burst of snow coming together along the escarpment from NF to Lockport. NT area already picked up 2” from that first batch. Weird seeing the dark clouds to my north with the bright sun shining from the south.

Swing and a BIG miss for BUF on this one. Band is already back way south. Only an inch here. Not looking like it was that much better right on the northern southern Erie boarder. Just saw a live shot from Quaker crossing plaza... maybe 3-4” there? Not even close to the warning snowfall they were calling for. BW how you make out further south? Looked like you were in the band for quite a few hours?

Starting to get a little action filling in back over the lake now. 0z starting to come in all south very sharp cutoff on the northern side. Can’t really get a read off the radar what to expect. Winds mid lake are backing all the way to SW...

I’m beyond intrigued to see just how this thing sets up in the next couple hours. Nothing but a hot mess blob right now. The slight band that looked to be forming is just going to push onshore way north into Canada. This things got a lot of work to do next couple hours...

Interesting forecast by KBUF for Erie County tonight/tomorrow. Would almost think they are going with good old fashion guessing. Only 2 models showing the band get that far north are RGEM which barely gets the 6” line to the city, and the ARW which is always too aggressive. Even the forecast by KBUF is a bit contradicting. The AFD says 3” or less in the metro but their map has the 8-12” line all the way up to downtown. Glancing through the local maps and not really seeing anyone showing anything even close to the KBUF map. They are the pros so let’s see!

Northern Erie added to the warning... Transition Zone special for Lackawanna, South Buffalo, West Seneca! Northern Erie- Including the city of Buffalo 128 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Erie county. The greatest snow amounts in northern portions of Erie county will occur from Lackawanna and Blasdell to West Seneca, Elma and Marilla and points southward.

We going crazy in South Buffalo! Fireworks! People Screaming! You’d think it’s 9pm on the 4th of July... https://www.facebook.com/1330897592/posts/10225450032340992/?

When the local met has to tweet out that he called the BUF office to see if they agreed it would snow Saturday night. Amateur hour...

Yeah most of the snow for WNY on CAN is a lake effect event Monday into Tuesday. Only showing widespread inch with 2-4” on the hills for Saturday.

NWS first take for the weekend. RGEM staying the course with a pretty intense band forming off Erie Saturday night putting down almost a foot in central Erie county. Probably overdone but still. Pretty important forecast period ahead!

RGEM says snow game!

We’re looking to upgrade soon if possible. Just time to get out of the city. Even prices here are through the roof. I bought my house for 90k in 2010 and could probably get 170k for it now. Downfalls would be the taxes out in the burbs. Go from paying $100 a month to $400-$500 in just taxes is a big jump added onto a higher base mortgage payment with the upgrade. Housing market was always a value in WNY but I think it might be a bit over inflated right now.

Mood Flakes... All we need is some mood flakes lol.