.HYDROLOGY... There`s a risk for ice jams on the Buffalo Creeks Sunday and Monday. The combination of warmer temperatures and some light rain may be enough to cause ice to break up on some of the Buffalo Creeks. Unlike earlier this week, the snowpack will be more dense (or ripe) for run-off heading into Sunday due to the warmer temperatures preceding it. Without significant rainfall, it typically takes about 300 thawing degree hours (TDH) in order for ice to start to break up on the headwaters of Buffalo Creek, Cazenovia Creek, and Cayuga Creek. At this time the latest forecast is for highs in the upper 40s which would keep TDH below this, however if it`s any warmer than ice break up and associated jams are possible. There is still a significant snow pack in place (2-4 inches in the headwaters), and ice on the creeks is thick. This also corresponds with MMEFS ensembles which show a risk for run- off with chance for action level rises on some creeks. If it warms enough for creeks to rise to action level, there would likely be ice break up and a risk for ice jams.
Underwater team was out cutting the triangles in the ice along the Caz slants today. Ice was looking pretty thick... ~6”.