SouthBuffaloSteve

Lot going on out there... That band is trying to hold on for dear life. Looks like flow turned more west behind that wave, strong cells but are we going to see one new main band take over? Lot of activity still flaring up north side of lake from long point to Buffalo. Maybe a dual band trying to set up? Edit... Stupid upload size... better on the high def radar but you get the idea...

It’s putting up a good fight holding still. I just hit mine and had 4.2”surprisingly since 9pm. Interested to see what that bullseye area in WS OP got so far.

Nice disco from BUF... Off Lake Erie... Band of moderate to heavy snow with snowfall rates of 2+" per hour along with some thunder continues to lift northward, focusing along the Lake Erie shoreline of Chautauqua county to just south of the Buffalo Airport to near Batavia. Approach of low level trough backing winds enough to lift the band northward a bit more than mesoscale models suggested, but with the passage of the trough the band should refocus south of the Buffalo metro area for a time overnight. However, this should be brief as nearly all mesoscale guidance drifts the band northward toward morning, reaching its northern-most point late in the morning to early afternoon Saturday into the city of Buffalo and even the nearby northern suburbs before starting to drift back south across the southtowns late in the afternoon. Lowering inversion heights, decreasing moisture, and increasing shear will allow the band to weaken Saturday afternoon. Total accumulations of 15-20 inches are still likely where the band persists the longest from western Chautauqua County, the northwest corner of Cattaraugus County, into southern and central Erie County including South Buffalo and the densely populated nearby southtowns. 6-12 inches are possible from downtown to the airport and the nearby northtowns if the band makes it that far north Saturday, with a very sharp drop off in accumulations heading northward through the northtowns.

I don’t want to say it... cuz it ain’t no where near the same thing... But don’t that look like how the November storm did when it locked in? That sharp curved northern gradient that didn’t move and inch and was like the train tracks for the heaviest snows and then the fanned out plumes to the south.

Keep going from crystal clear to this...

Yeah not sure it’s going much more north tonight. I think it’s camping out for a while. Look at that cutoff edge on the northern side.

BW. What you thinking for this band now tonight? I really don’t see any reason it would move at all for hours. That northern edge Lackawanna, West Seneca, OP going to get crushed tonight!

So close... Just can’t get in! Still getting some good 1.5”/hr bursts on the edges of the band. It’s gotta be cranking inside it. Winds are really starting to howl!

Cmon baby! Almost there!

If I can get into it later this evening I’ll be out on a thundersnow prowl.

The inland portion of the band is on the move north and quick! The past few hours it had the SW orientation along the lake shore but then it was taking that sharp right hand turn into Southern Erie. Looks like that convergence zone that was causing that bend is letting up as the shortwave digs in and is now going to let the band run smack up into the south side of the city. The additional bump from the added moisture I would suspect could blow this band up big time once it’s gets fully aligned down the lake in the next 60-90 minutes...

She’s off and kicking... Gotta start seeing a shift north in next few hours or we’re just gonna end up with a sweeper that dumps 3-4” on its trip north and then another 2-3” in its way back south. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 545 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 NYZ012-019-020-085-260030- Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-Wyoming- 545 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 ...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHERN CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND CENTRAL CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES... At 540 PM EST, a band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates around an inch per hour is located from near Ripley to South Dayton to Arcade on the southern flank, and from near Angola to Hamburg to East Aurora on the northern flank. This band of snow will remain nearly stationary this evening. Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this band of lake effect snow creating blowing snow. A rumble of thunder is also possible within the most intense portion of the band of snow.

Yeah losing some hope off Erie. Still that’s why I love it... You never really know what’s exactly gonna happen and there’s always the chance for a surprise.

Pic quality sucks on here...

It’s gonna be close... but it’s always close like this. We’re talking a 5 mile jog making or breaking the hopes of the north town boys. Just going to have to wait and see just where she goes. I’m still feeling a Dec 2010 replay could be on tap.

Nice bands firing up into NE Ohio.

Updated map with just Lake Effect now... Looks like it’s going to be a real close call for the metro and north now with this band...Very right northern snow gradient...

5.0” on the dot here. Just looks amazing outside this morning! Everything is plastered in white!

It’s gonna look like a hallmark card tomorrow morning!

Flipped really quick here around 915. Heavy wet flakes... this will be a plaster job of it holds up!

Probably..... Overkill.... But hey can’t measure 48” of snow with a 36” stick!

Afternoon project to kill an hour... Now we wait...

KBUF trying to hint something? Noticed a few darker specks around the metro earlier... Now the most recent map has a decent sized area of these specks... Either the map has chicken pox or they are trying to sprinkle in some 24” Lolli’s...???

Another bump up from KBUF...