MUWX

Wintry mix has begun on the north side of springfield. Snow mixing in with the drizzle

Starting to look more likely.

In the sweet spot 5 days out, what could go wrong?

Euro has the system, but it is pretty light. I wouldnt trust the 2-4 the GFS is showing, because at least some of that is probably sleet.

Ah. Makes sense. I know the SW portion of the SGF warning area, is very similar to Tulsa in terms of WSW drought. I don't even remember the last time I was under a Winter Storm Watch.

I sure dont remember SGF issuing a warning last year

Wednesday night is looking pretty interesting for this early in the season

Gfs has this as well in the 18z. Not sure if it’s the same system or not

Looks to have cycled and looks very strong again

So are you still sticking to the cat 3 idea?

If I am thinking of the same house, it looked like it may have still been under construction. Hard to say though.

Stillwater storm has decent rotation

Keep saying it, you’ll be right eventually.

Pretty unimpressive right now. Would guess it is done, but you never know with these things.

Velocity is a mess, will be an interesting 10-15 minutes as it figures out what to do next

Is it trying to occlude?

Right. Let’s county I believe? Had forgotten about that one

Looking more and more likely that this is our first violent tornado of the year...

Was thinking the same thing. Then it wrapped back up and exploded...

Velocity looking som what weaker, debris still evident though

Thoughts further east into Missouri?

Jeff City was rated a high end EF3, preliminarily.

Yeah, that is similar to what I have been hearing. Definitely significant, but far from catastrophic.

Yeah, saying that storm skimmed the south side of the city is just incredibly misguided.

Carl Junction is basically a bed room community to Joplin, and that tornado went through one of the main neighborhoods, Briarbrook. The damage was significant, but that tornado simply wasn't strong enough to cause catastrophic damage. It was mostly tree and roof damage from that tornado, at least in the Carl Junction area. It may have been stronger further east of there, but at the time tn made closest approach to Joplin, it was simply not strong enough to do catastrophic damage. The Jefferson City storm went basically right through town, it was on the south side of town, and then into the downtown area. Probably not the most populated area in town, but there are a significant number of homes in the impacted area.