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MUWX

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Everything posted by MUWX

  1. MUWX
    Its still pretty displaced from the WSW. If the GFS verifies, those watches need to be shifted east.
  2. MUWX
    The 18z HRRR (long range run) is starting to get into the beginning hours of the event. Cold air is similar to the NAM, which is interesting.
  3. MUWX
    Noticed the east trend as well
  4. MUWX
    My bad. Didn't realize what was posted wasn't complete. That's not a bad run. 2-3 for me.
  5. MUWX
    Yep. Basically down to trusting the GFS or trusting everything else. I think we all know the answer when those are the two options
  6. MUWX
    Lets lock that in. The differences in the cold air continue between the NAM and the GFS
  7. MUWX
    There are some pretty significant differences in how the 12z nam and 6z GFS are handling the cold air as well. At 06z Saturday the difference between the two is nearly 15 degrees for Springfield.
  8. MUWX
    Only going to be cold for like 24 hours. Then back to the 50s and 60s
  9. MUWX
    Really starting to feel like this one is going to end up just like every other storm has for the last half decade.
  10. MUWX
    Take a further step back and look at what your really assessing, a modeled snow storm in the four states area!
  11. MUWX
    Seeing the heavy snow in OK/AR headed North east at hour 72, go poof by hour 78 is very depressing for the SWMO folks. haha
  12. MUWX
    The only model that doesnt agree with the northern solution is the Euro. Im happy that the euro is on our side, but its very concerning that its the only one. Hoping for some light snow at this point, definitely not convinced we even get that at this point.
  13. MUWX
    That run looks a lot like the majority of storms from the last 5 years, close... but not close enough.
  14. MUWX
    So likely wont see that data in the models until the 0z runs tomorrow night?
  15. MUWX
    I still think we need to wait at least another 24-36 hours before we start talking about locking a solution in. When will this be fully sampled?
  16. MUWX
    Gfs takes another step
  17. MUWX
    18Z GFS needs to shift 100 miles south.
  18. MUWX
    Im still not sold on the euro because of the ensembles. The 0z ensembles were somewhat more encouraging than the 12z, so hopefully this afternoons is even better.
  19. MUWX
    Seems like a stretch. I think the 0z looks better than they 12z does. The 12z gets its act together to far east.
  20. MUWX
    Meh. He’s running with the euro op, which has very little support.
  21. MUWX
    Pretty similar to the 18z. All north. Has been the trend for the last 5 years. Going with persistence forecasting with this one. Expect the same result, until something proves otherwise.
  22. MUWX
    GFS is way north also. Might see some mix around here, but that is most likely about it. Several days out and plenty of time to change, but with 5 straight years of misses on our side, I don't see any reason to believe this one will be different.
  23. MUWX
    Disappointing to say the least, but not surprising.
  24. MUWX
    Anyone had a chance to look at the Euro ensembles? NWS mentions that the GFS ensembles were unimpressive.
  25. MUWX
    The GFS is certainly interesting.
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