Just like every other model. Its been almost a year exactly since one of these trended in a positive direction as the event neared this area. When it comes to forecasting winter weather in this area, on technique works best, persistence forecasting, forecast the what has been happening until something different actually happens. For all the excitement there has been regarding the next week to 10 days, its now looking cool to cold with a few flurries mixed in, nothing has changed yet.