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MUWX

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Everything posted by MUWX

  1. MUWX
    The cmc has been saying this for at least a couple runs now but mainly over south central Missouri
  2. MUWX
    The pattern that gave us an inch and a half in the first 2 weeks of winter? Haha not sure what you got where your at, but it's snowed here. We have 2+ months left where we can get big storms, let's see what happens. If we don't get another half inch in all of January, February and March, that might be historic.
  3. MUWX
    I would be absolutely shocked if we go 3 straight winters with less than two inches of snow. No way we go the rest of winter with less than a half inch
  4. MUWX
    Gfs went north that run. Euro was either warmer or further north also. I didn't look at it that close, but several of the emsembles had a crazy storm, and a few had snow in swmo. It's a long ways out, but it's certainly starting to feel like this is the plains best chance at a storm so far this season
  5. MUWX
    Gfs had something in this time frame also, especially on the 06 run, this run is warm. Out of the three, I think the gfs has been the least consistent
  6. MUWX
    What time frame?
  7. MUWX
    The euro had cold air next week, I didn't see if it had a storm though.
  8. MUWX
    I think there is definitely truth to the recurring pattern, but I don't think it can be used to make exact forecasts weeks in advance like he is trying to do.
  9. MUWX
    The Canadian is the only one showing this, correct? Every other model seems much less bullish to me.
  10. MUWX
    I think for about the past week, the gfs has performed pretty well. I don't know the model scores but the gfs has been doing decent it seems.
  11. MUWX
    I'd love to cash in, but man, the models seem to be drying up big time. I haven't looked at it super close but I'm not seeing much that gets my attention. Granted, a week out a lot can change.
  12. MUWX
    Seeing some reports of thunder snow in the Tulsa metro area. Monett is getting sleet now. Pretty heavy and big in size
  13. MUWX
    The first round is winding down here in Monett. Tried to change to change over to sleet at the end but it never could fully get it done. Our deck is starting to ice over with the rails solid ice. Now that the rain has ended, I ventured out to the yard, and was fairly surprised. The trees are pretty weighted down, a lot more ice accumulated than I thought. Nothing major, but the cedar trees are touching the ground. If this last band puts down some heavy wet snow, the trees are really going to be weighed down.
  14. MUWX
    Starting to give up hope that this is ever going to transition in Monett. Moderate "freezing" rain has been occurring for hours, but only a few slick spots on elevated surfaces.
  15. MUWX
    NWS is buying the HRRR and holding the snow off until way after midnight. Sounds about right, never easy to get snow here.
  16. MUWX
    Sgf pulled the trigger on a WWA and went with ~3 inches along the I44 corridor. Seems like a good bet to me, most models seem to be locking in on that solution. We still need to watch temps and see if they fall faster than anticipated. Monett has been locked in at 34 for quite some time now. Airport dropped to 32 earlier, but I'm not sure they was accurate
  17. MUWX
    34 in Monett, seems models might be a little too warm but I'm not positive.
  18. MUWX
  19. MUWX
    This is their 24 hour snow total, but their 7 day snow total has amounts of about half this. Not sure what the disconnect is.
  20. MUWX
    Not sure how to link it, but doug goes with 1-3 for southern Missouri and northern Arkansas
  21. MUWX
    Not saying it's going to happen, but the euro has a day 9/10 storm also.
  22. MUWX
    I was wondering when you would resurface, almost texted you telling you to get back on here!
  23. MUWX
    For anyone interested, the Little Rock AFD amazing tonight. Well worth the read.
  24. MUWX
    Aren't Doug and his basically the same?
  25. MUWX
    I've been reading what Doug Heady and Gary Lezak have to say about the Christmas system, and they couldn't be more different. Doug has kept the same tone for about a week now, and Gary had flip flopped every model run. Gary went from a 10% chance of a while Christmas, to a 55% chance back to a 15% chance in 24 hours. They both use the recurring cycle, but it's pretty obvious that Gary is just following the models for this one, while it seems Doug actually has faith in the recurring pattern idea.
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