MUWX

Storm approaching Joplin certainly has that look to it. Rotation seems to be increasing.

Been watching this one as well, it is fairly discrete. Some broad rotation is already evident.

And multiple tornado warnings

Not sure what they are waiting on with the watch...

Confirmed tornado with the Panhandle storms

I wouldn't get too worried about it yet. AFD says to expect changes over the next 24 hours. One thing of interest, they are going with the NAM short term.

SGF has dropped totals by 1-2 inches area wide, by their own admission they are going on the low side of guidance. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Hopefully the AFD will shed some light on their thinking.

Too early to temp watch? SGF had a forecast high of 45 this morning, now calling for a high of 38.

Not saying he's wrong, but seems suspect. Although I can't disagree with continuance forecasting

So how about that run....

Just a brutal pattern this winter. Tons of moisture, an ok amount of cold air, time has just been way off. For all the talk leading into winter, this one has been one of the worst I remember.

I probably just took your message out of context lol just a frustrating season all around.

Their discussion addresses everything you are confused about...

This looks like an all rain event to me in SWMO. Looks like the HRRR may have nailed this one. Not sure if its too close to the event for the NAM to matter, but 12z run had 3-6 inches of 'snow,' 18z run says what snow. It has totally caved to the HRRR. Temps have soared past forecast highs. Currently sitting at 40, after the high was 35, it has now been bumped to 41. There is a huge spread in temps and dew points here, which could save us but that seems unlikely. Maybe some mixing in but after multiple forecasters were calling for snow amounts pushing an inch an hour at rush hour here, this really looks like a big miss. Could be wrong, but I don see it.

HRRR has always been the warmest for this event. Doesn't mean its wrong necessarily, but it seems to be the warmest model by far. As of 11, it seems to be running 2-3 degrees to warm in SWMO.

Hard to blame him... we haven't seen a single significant event this winter... you guys have had it even worse. I don't really see a whole lot to get excited over at this point.

I think you vastly underestimate how difficult it is to forecast winter weather in this area

I wouldn't say it looks good for snow, but it looks good for freezing rain and sleet

I will take nothing over an ice storm any day of the week.

The AFD from SGF is a very interesting read. Mentions the possibility of strong tornadoes, as well as a potentially significant ice storm. Crazy system.

Pretty sure it has been wrong several times this winter already but it was wrong when it was calling for snow and the GFS was not. IMO, side with the model that shows nothing then wait and see what happens. Typically, the model that shows nothing, is the correct solution.

I wouldn't count on them agreeing this weekend, I expect them to come into agreement next Friday. lol

Snow and sleet both accumulate at 10 to 1 with that model, so that's probably not mostly snow.

Yep! I am sitting in at least moderate snow right now. Starting to get that foggy look outside.

Pretty decent "surprise" snow in republic tonight. Probably looking at close to a half inch and still falling