leo2000

Hmm seems the EPS 12Z is heading in the wrong direction it was showing cold around this time period yesterday and has backed off of it.

Question if its a big if but if a split happens what would that do to La Nina/ MJO?

What is happening here?. Looking likes warm warm in the East mid month.

Maybe or could have been because of the Polar Vortex taking hits and being stretched. MAJOR trend from 49% to 70% of the 103 global ensembles in 12 hrs for a -AO from 12-13-20 and beyond. Colder risks mid month drastically increasing. Details in my video coming in http://Bamwx.com video here soon. #natgas #oott #energy

Wouldn't think be a Major SSW event?

Maybe I can get a response from you but if this comes to fruition. Would this mute the La Nina base state from coming back?. Also mute MJO from going into phases 4-6. Thanks.

How is the 12z EPS long range?

Merry Christmas the Sh$$ter was full. The new GEFS is starting to see a *potential* sudden stratospheric warming event within the next 10 days. As the North Pacific pattern starts to feature some blocking (-EPO) its going to doing some serious work on the #PolarVortex. This is something to watch closely. #natgas

See new Tweets Tweet Simon Lee @SimonLeeWx · 1h Another extended-range update from ECMWF with the ensemble-mean predicting the transition to a persistent weaker-than-average stratospheric vortex beginning mid-month. I'd take that...

Hey guys is the PV splitting?. https://www.stormgeo.com/weather/articles/what-is-the-polar-vortex-and-what-does-it-mean-that-it-has-split/

How is the long range looking on the 12z Euro?.

I think they are talking about the MJO going into phases 4-6 and the Strong La Nina base state. But there is a lot of uncertainty there. The same statistical algorithm that weeks ago projected the upcoming wild pattern in the eastern US now projects this for the end of December. (Shown is 200 hPa height anomalies, red positive). ( Courtesy of Paul Roundy on Twitter).

Any -EPO. Really need to get rid of that Pac puke.

Uncle Leo is here to the rescue. People need to be patient it will snow eventually. I know it's hard with Covid and last winter's disaster.

The problem when someone argues that AGW is causing winters to be warmer or AGW is causing the Polar Vortex to weaken more often than usual. Yes AGW is happening but how it's really effecting weather patterns we still don't seem to have a good grasp on that yet.

This will save us from going back to a La Nina base state. PV-Forecast @PvForecast · 5h nice wave2 @judah47 @MattHugo81 @SimonLeeWx

Oh but we do need the -EPO to get the cold really loading. The positive PNA is only going to give low level cold not the deep stuff that a -EPO provides.

How is the 12z EPS looking?.

The biggest problem I have with this new pattern is there is no cold arctic air in Canada. You want Canada like a freezer, having a positive PNA is nice but it only temporary delivers cold down to the Eastern US.

That is a good thing would give us a -EPO. We need that -EPO for a cold load to drop into Canada. Your positive surely helps you guys out in the eastern US with some cold and would help me some too here with big storm chances but need the -EPO too. I don't see how a -EPO would lead to a return of La Nina?. I heard it's getting weaker anyways heading into a moderate one.

Need a -EPO hopefully it comes soon.

Any hint of a -EPO yet?. Because I find it's good too get cold into Canada.

My point yesterday is we need the help from a negative EPO to get the cold source. Because if you don't have a cold source what good is the positive PNA really going to do?.