I would say this is at least a few days behind. There are some trees peaking in the triangle now but the main peak has already faded and the winds have resulted in a lot of leaf drop now.
One thing to note is even if the G number is high you need a negative Bz on top of that for a show. That won't be known until it hits. Negative is south which is what you need.
It gets confusing as they use UTC but basically overnight tonight is a solid chance and then we will see if a daytime hit by the next one can hold on until dark tomorrow night.
Could see aurora this far south tonight with a cannibal CME arriving after two X flares. There was an X5 this morning which also produced a full halo CME so we will see how that factors in for another round in a day or two.