eyewall

The smoke definitely arrived last evening and has persisted through sunrise this morning.


Last Evening:

This morning (6/29):

A few shots from 2 different supercells:
 

I chased two different supercells yesterday in western Piedmont/Triad region. When I got back last night, I caught this over Raleigh:

I am waiting to see if any discretes pop off the lee trough before working back toward the Triangle

I am high point and it is full sun here. Cleared just west of Mebane.

I plan on headed out toward the Triad and points west to see if I can catch some discretes before upscale growth occurs.

17 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Just wow 

 

He then said it may be due to moth/insect damage.

A consensus of
   model forecasts suggests the greatest instability will develop from
   central North Carolina into southern and central Virginia, where
   MLCAPE values appear likely to reach the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In
   addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings near
   Richmond, Virginia and Raleigh, North Carolina have steep mid-level
   lapse rates with relatively cool temperatures aloft. This, combined
   with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range will likely support
   supercell development. The potential for supercells will be greatest
   early in the afternoon, before storms merge into a line. Hailstones
   of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
   supercells that develop in areas that destabilize the most. The
   current thinking is that a relatively quick transition to a line
   will occur. This line is forecast to become organized, moving
   eastward across the Piedmont into the Raleigh/Durham and Richmond
   areas during the late afternoon. Wind-damage will be likely along
   the leading edge of the stronger parts of this line segment.

 consensus of
   model forecasts suggests the greatest instability will develop from
   central North Carolina into southern and central Virginia, where
   MLCAPE values appear likely to reach the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In
   addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings near
   Richmond, Virginia and Raleigh, North Carolina have steep mid-level
   lapse rates with relatively cool temperatures aloft. This, combined
   with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range will likely support
   supercell development. The potential for supercells will be greatest
   early in the afternoon, before storms merge into a line. Hailstones
   of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
   supercells that develop in areas that destabilize the most. The
   current thinking is that a relatively quick transition to a line
   will occur. This line is forecast to become organized, moving
   eastward across the Piedmont into the Raleigh/Durham and Richmond
   areas during the late afternoon. Wind-damage will be likely along
   the leading edge of the stronger parts of this line segment.

A couple of others (I wish the lighting was a bit better):
 

5 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

With the majority of the rain behind us, time to look ahead to Monday to our next severe threat. Not a particularly high ceiling, but looks like it could be an enhanced type day if the timing is right

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4...
An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region
on Monday, as an associated trough moves into the upper Ohio Valley
and southern Appalachians. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints
in the lower 70s F, will likely be in place from the Carolinas
north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate instability is
forecast to develop across much of this moist airmass by afternoon.
Thunderstorms that form in the higher terrain will move
east-northeastward into the Appalachian foothills during the
afternoon. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear
and steep low-level lapse rates will likely result in a some severe
storms. Wind damage and hail are expected to be the primary threats.

I will be ready!

Nothing like a Plains looking updraft in North Carolina. This was yesterday evening looking northwest from Raleigh.

Smoky this morning:
 

12/4/2

The way the sun shined through this morning shower was interesting as well:
 

Still getting these passing showers once in awhile in Raleigh:

Looking more annular in the latest frames

Killington is going through at least Memorial Day 

16 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Maybe some slightly spicy weather tomorrow. Anything to break the monotony (although I confess, it has been rather nice)

I have to leave town for work so this will verify and then some. There was an ENH upgrade this morning.

On 4/26/2023 at 9:43 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

It is impossible to do any worse than this previous winter, literally. Whatever we get will likely be better :).

This is what I observed with the embedded HP supercell that developed near Lake Gaston yesterday:
 

13 hours ago, Professional Lurker said:

Why does it have to be cloudy?

Holy shit, I've never seen the Bz at -30

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

It is also because I am on a trip to El Salvador and this was the one I needed to see them in NC.

Yep we always get the right setup when it is too late.

11 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

That's kinda stupid at like peak severe season. Not that there's anything significant on the horizon thankfully. 

 

Yeah apparently it was not a decision made by the local office but higher up.

This is one more from yesterday with the first wall cloud I saw near Apex at 3:47pm or so. You can make out the Shearon Harris cooling tower below it (it is actually probably quite a distance from the actual base of the cloud in this shot):