eyewall

The NAM is trying to sneak a little in tomorrow:

That little batch heading for Randleman looks pretty good. Should then go through Lee and parts of Moore County if it holds together.

Probably an A in most places in the region by now I would think. For my area a C+ to a C- depending on exact location.

Banner Elk is usually a sure bet.

Yeah I hear you as unlike us you guys scored in the last big event so anything else is a bonus. 9 days to go to Valentine's Day so whatever we see now will likely not be the actual result of course. Still in the pattern recognition phase.

This morning's version:

And people were getting on me for saying this very thing. We had our chance and it didn't work out here and it sucks. Valentine's Day is much more likely to rain and/or a mixed p event.

A thin glaze of ice here and about 30 snow grains per square centimeter.

And it may very well extend into the 2030's after missing this shot at it. There is no telling for sure of course but it is a very low probability it will be this year.

They do realize this is Wake County right?

Soil temps ahead of the warmup

If we do get another round of winter the MJO forecast points to around the 21st or after so we shall see

Maybe a few more times.

I am pretty sure other than tonight's near non event that we are likely done for the year. I know that stings for our Wake County folks who want a makeup event for the dry slot. After the warm up we get into much more difficult territory for a big hit. Obviously it certainly would not be the 20:1 type ratios. It would likely be a paste job (which is good for photos but can cause a lot more issues). I am not sure when RDU will get another shot at 6 or better but it won't be anytime soon (possibly years). I do hope we get some decent severe chances at least in the Spring.

A frozen puddle advisory.

So my question to everyone else who endured the dry slot is did this feel worse than December 2000 to you, better, or about the same?

I missed the pics thread so I will post them here instead from Greensboro and from here in the screw zone:

The regular Euro ensemble from 12z:

That is true. It is only good if it is a paste job for photos. Half the reason I got so upset about this last one is because of missed photo ops with a big one in Raleigh that could have caught on.

Euro AIFS ensemble:

Still a lot of run to run variability on where that one little band shows up.

Some of the better shots I got from the Triad and inside the screw zone: