eyewall

If we do get another round of winter the MJO forecast points to around the 21st or after so we shall see

Maybe a few more times.

I am pretty sure other than tonight's near non event that we are likely done for the year. I know that stings for our Wake County folks who want a makeup event for the dry slot. After the warm up we get into much more difficult territory for a big hit. Obviously it certainly would not be the 20:1 type ratios. It would likely be a paste job (which is good for photos but can cause a lot more issues). I am not sure when RDU will get another shot at 6 or better but it won't be anytime soon (possibly years). I do hope we get some decent severe chances at least in the Spring.

A frozen puddle advisory.

So my question to everyone else who endured the dry slot is did this feel worse than December 2000 to you, better, or about the same?

I missed the pics thread so I will post them here instead from Greensboro and from here in the screw zone:

The regular Euro ensemble from 12z:

That is true. It is only good if it is a paste job for photos. Half the reason I got so upset about this last one is because of missed photo ops with a big one in Raleigh that could have caught on.

Euro AIFS ensemble:

Still a lot of run to run variability on where that one little band shows up.

Some of the better shots I got from the Triad and inside the screw zone:

Raleigh will probably see token flakes and a glaze. I would suspect the decnt accumulations are most likely from Roxboro through Roanoke Rapids and EC through southeastern VA.

I am ready to move on to severe season being nothing will make up for the screw job on 1/31. Once you get past Valentine's Day it gets a lot harder to get anything worthwhile in most years.

I am ready for severe season since we couldn't get the job done in a near perfect setup this winter IMBY. We aren't going to make up for that this year so might as well move on.

I am looking forward to my trip up at the end of February and hoping the snowy weather holds up. Of course we just had that epic storm where I was and I was in the screw zone dry slot (we only got 4 inches). I did chase to where some of the big amounts occurred though because I wasn't going to sit through that nonsense. The amazing thing for NC is it was in the teens for this storm with 20:1 ratios and better in some cases. Here is a pic from that chase in the FGEN band. See you all soon!

I think next winter the models will be re-programmed with the reality that it doesn't snow in Wake County.

Alright well fuck it. Here is the 18z Euro:

And they are already getting brutalized in the comments.

Where are you viewing Weathernext?

It feels almost worse than December 2000 did in some ways. I am sorry that happened to you for sure.

I have to give @NorthHillsWx credit for jumping into this one after the dry slot event. I wish i had that approach.

Those under 3 inches did not verify the warning. The original forecast also busted but that doesn't impact meeting criteria or not.