sbnwx85

Been pixie dusting most of the night but banding is improving greatly to the southwest and moving this way.

DAB- so far. Better than I thought considering I expected snow to start around midnight.

Picked up 0.8” yesterday (although that’s a guess with all the blowing and drifting). Sitting at 20” for the month. 19.4” of that has fallen since last Wednesday. Hard to believe we only have a snow depth of about 5” right now, but compaction is doing its thing. (SBN went from 17” to 7” snow depth from the 15th to the 16th!!) I’m sitting at 57.6” in my backyard for the season. (75” is my personal record). South Bend officially is at 62.2” for the season.

Just as I was about to post that there’s nothing here yet, flurries began to fall.

I feel seen DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 Overall, no significant changes to the incoming winter storm. A wintry weekend is underway or imminent for much of the US. Low pressure over the TX/LA Gulf Coast slowly lifts north this evening with a modest precipitation shield extending into the mid- Mississippi valley where Arctic High Pressure has a grip over the Midwest. This high pressure limits poleward moisture transport this evening with its strong subsidence and bone-dry air mass (dew points in the 10s-to-teens below-zero). Forecast soundings do show saturation occuring prior to midnight ET for those along and south of US 24 allowing for about 1-2" by daybreak Sunday; armchair meteorologists may scoff Sunday morning about the lack of snow but more is on the way. Our primary period of prolonged, steady snowfall is during the day Sunday and tapering off after sunset. This is when a second, more potent low currently digging in over the Baja of California lifts northeast through the Tennessee River Valley. By this time, high pressure will have shifted northeast allowing for improved moisture profile locally, but still cannot rule out being "robbed" of some moisture transport with such a large precipitation shield across the S Southeast US. The 12z suite of forecast guidance generally stayed close to the existing forecast. There were some northward shifts in CAMs (as well as the NAM). Balancing the dry air mass, subtle northward shift of some guidance and reducing snow ratios a touch, we`ve generally held course with this afternoon`s forecast package. In coordination with neighboring offices, we did reduce the inherited 20:1 snow ratios (now capped at (17:1); likely over- boosted by the very cold air mass. Indeed, the 15k FT deep dendritic growth zone is impressive, but overall forcing in the column is modest as revealed by time-height cross sections. Nonetheless, a fluffy snow and a brief period 1" per hour rates. These rates are most likely around sunrise Sunday morning as an area of mid-level frontogenesis passes overhead. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow, with easterly wind at the start of the evening "backing" (counter-clockwise) to become westerly by the snow`s end. A single band of lake effect develops Sunday night as this surface low becomes centered off the New England coast. The band tracks from the western Lake Michigan shore to the east which will limit residence time but 1" per hour rates are expected as the band swings through. Depending on its residence time for the Monday morning commute, additional winter weather headlines may be needed for Michiana.

Call in real jeopardy now

Planes landing at South Bend go right over where I work. When I was leaving I thought we had one coming right at me. I looked up and it was normal altitude, but the cold air must make the sound travel more efficiently. I thought I was going crazy but glad I’m at least not alone. Down to -6 now. HRRR has a low of -13 with snow pack and clear skies it is certainly possible. Record today is -17.

I think IWX upgrades watch to a warning then puts rest of its counties under an advisory for 3-6”. Although Berrien and Cass get that amount later with lake effect

And isn't this all really about the friends you make along the way?

Brutal winter day again. Frigid, windy and lake effect snow. The flakes and the wind is probably breaking them apart but it’s making for low visibility at times. Also, the snow is developing just a few hundred feet above the ground so the radar doesn’t look impressive. Also, the sun peeks through between snow showers. Road salt isn’t working because of the cold so there are a lot of slide offs and crashes. I even had to help my gf who slid off the road in a neighborhood this morning. Very arctic feel today.

Catching up this morning — too bad most guidance showing the drying trend on the north side of this system. Hopefully ratios make up for lack of QPF but 3” of system snow seems like a lock here. We’ll see what the lake can deliver on Monday.

00z NAM is southeast. More in line with the Euro now.

Call looking money.

Posting for posterity. Should continue to grow.

As good as that 11.2" looks over SB, the Euro is overdoing tomorrow's lake-effect locally. Probably subtract 4" from that for me. The lake-effect on Monday looks decent though.

But like... a glacier?

I can't even imagine what 4-6" of sleet looks like.

#dreamjob

Euro still drops 7" IMBY followed by 3" of lake effect on Monday.

Some of the icing in the Deep South is going to be devastating. Easily 1" of ice in spots from Texas to Tennessee.

This is our last hope to pull something out of this weekend's system. #ThanksTrump

3” final call.

Another nudge north. Although you can tell the precip shield struggles to get any further north.

UKIE looks about the same as previous runs on the 10:1 maps although there is now a much cleaner cut on the northern edge of the 6” snows.