sbnwx85

Going all in. If it happens I’ll start the first winter storm thread of the season. Potential for a destructive windbag/derecho Monday. SPC outlining a large Enhanced Risk area with SIG1 hatching. Potential upgrade to CIG2. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys... A very moist airmass is in place from the Upper Midwest into the OH and TN Valley. This airmass is exists south of a diffuse cold front that extends from a surface low over far southeast Manitoba southeastward to far eastern Upper MI. One thunderstorm is currently ongoing near this boundary over eastern Upper MI. Most of the thunderstorms are ongoing just northeast another surface boundary demarcating the very moist (i.e. 70+ dewpoints) to it southwest. How this warm-air advection activity evolves early this morning will have a large impact on the severe potential farther downstream from the Mid MS Valley into the OH and TN Valleys through the late morning into the afternoon and evening. Much of the guidance is beginning to suggest the warm-air advection activity clusters early this morning over the MN Arrowhead vicinity before then tracking southeastward within the moisture/buoyancy gradient and organizing/intensifying significantly. Synoptically, the overall setup matches many characteristics of scenarios with strong, forward-propagating MCSs, including a surface boundary parallel to the deep-layer shear, at least modest mid-level warm advection, and very strong to extreme buoyancy. Given the trend within the guidance and favorable synoptics, confidence in the development of a strong forward-propagating MCS is high enough to adjust the 30% wind probabilities westward while also introducing a CIG1 area. There is a chance that both higher wind probabilities and a CIG2 may be needed, but predictability regarding convective evolution is too low at this time.

HRRR selling a derecho late morning to early afternoon tomorrow

The rare PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch up in SD.

Getting intrigued for Monday.

I remember my mom telling me about water skiing and barbecuing at the lake on Christmas of ‘82.

Was skeptical of StormNet at first because it’s very AI driven but it’s done a damn good job. Something to watch for Monday.

71/48 winds gusting to 20. Brilliant day. Might the best of the summer.

Not quite yearning for winter yet (who yearns?) but this pleases me.

Saw a post on FB about three Tornado Warnings in the UP at the same time. A rarity for sure

GFS and NAM keep me in the 60's on Wednesday. Would be v refreshing

Wow, even if it does happen, my area gets split like a pair of cheap khakis on Chris Farley.

After striking out with the storms yesterday we got a good storm today. Nothing severe but it was nice to get some heavy rain and thunder.

After avoiding the worst yesterday, we are in the thick of the smoke here. AQI over 400. Smells nasty.

Smoke got worse. AQI now in the 200's here. I can't imagine how much worse it is to the north and west. Woof.

This sunset is gonna be bonkers

We're right on the southern edge of the smoke. AQI has been in the 100's all day. Slowly getting worse. I wasn't able to smell anything in the smoke this morning, but getting a faint hint of something this afternoon.

88 yesterday and 91 today. Dews around 70 today. Not as bad as last week, but also, getting more acclimated to the heat/humidity.

Correct me if i'm wrong, but wouldn't this be like "block out the sun for a few hours" kind of stuff in Michigan?

This thunder is loud af. I love it

Garden variety cell grew into a decent storm. 50 mph gust in there at one point. Outflow breeze feels great rn. More storms backbuilding. Gonna be a good day.

Under a warning here but the main line should stay north. Although there’s a nice pop up cell providing some garden variety

A whole bunch of rain if those storms start training.

80 percent chance was crazy

Best climo