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sbnwx85

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Everything posted by sbnwx85

  1. South Bend's high of 20 degrees today is the warmest in 7 days. South Bend spent 7 consecutive days below 20 degrees, the city's 9th-longest stretch in history. The 37.6" of snow in January (so far) is the 8th snowiest January on record. The official season snow total is 74.7" (north side of town). My backyard total is 65.9" (south side of town). By my calculations... this is the 7th snowiest winter through January on record. We'll see what the rest of the season holds!
  2. I was about to say. The clipper and following lake-effect potential has piqued my interest... hopefully, slightly moderating temps will slow ice coverage on the lake.
  3. Yeah, parameters weren't great on this side of the lake today, and we still ended up with 25:1 ratios.
  4. 90 percent wind triple-hatched is going to be a big day.
  5. Yeah, once the lake freezes over, we're all in the same boat hoping for system snow.
  6. Finally someone willing to share real weather news:
  7. 0.01" of precipitation recorded at South Bend today. 0.8" of snow. Just your typical 80:1 snow-to-liquid ratio.
  8. I love winter but miss thunderstorms. The structure on this lake effect snow band is the best we’ll get for now.
  9. IWX just issued a Winter Weather Advisory overnight tonight and Tuesday for the areas that got hit with lake effect. It’s to cover the 35 mph gusts that will blow this stuff around. We’re already getting gusts of 25-30 mph and it’s creating whiteout conditions at times. May get a true ground blizzard in rural areas, especially overnight.
  10. Hit the daily double last night with lake effect and added another 3.4”. 6.8” storm total. 11” snow depth. It’s the fourth time this winter we’ve had double-digit snow depth. #blessed
  11. Eyeballing about 3” now. WSW are up just to my north and west for lake effect. The Advisory has been extended locally to account for the lake snow through tomorrow morning. Could see another 1-3”.
  12. Seeing my Chicagoland friends cash in on some lake effect
  13. We’re losing steam here as the banding is drying up on the north edge of the storm. Guidance shows another push of light snow moving through later this afternoon which should put us right near 3”.
  14. At 2.2” with steady snow. Would be cool if the heavy stuff over the Decatur area would wing through here.
  15. Been pixie dusting most of the night but banding is improving greatly to the southwest and moving this way.
  16. DAB- so far. Better than I thought considering I expected snow to start around midnight.
  17. Picked up 0.8” yesterday (although that’s a guess with all the blowing and drifting). Sitting at 20” for the month. 19.4” of that has fallen since last Wednesday. Hard to believe we only have a snow depth of about 5” right now, but compaction is doing its thing. (SBN went from 17” to 7” snow depth from the 15th to the 16th!!) I’m sitting at 57.6” in my backyard for the season. (75” is my personal record). South Bend officially is at 62.2” for the season.
  18. Just as I was about to post that there’s nothing here yet, flurries began to fall.
  19. I feel seen DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 Overall, no significant changes to the incoming winter storm. A wintry weekend is underway or imminent for much of the US. Low pressure over the TX/LA Gulf Coast slowly lifts north this evening with a modest precipitation shield extending into the mid- Mississippi valley where Arctic High Pressure has a grip over the Midwest. This high pressure limits poleward moisture transport this evening with its strong subsidence and bone-dry air mass (dew points in the 10s-to-teens below-zero). Forecast soundings do show saturation occuring prior to midnight ET for those along and south of US 24 allowing for about 1-2" by daybreak Sunday; armchair meteorologists may scoff Sunday morning about the lack of snow but more is on the way. Our primary period of prolonged, steady snowfall is during the day Sunday and tapering off after sunset. This is when a second, more potent low currently digging in over the Baja of California lifts northeast through the Tennessee River Valley. By this time, high pressure will have shifted northeast allowing for improved moisture profile locally, but still cannot rule out being "robbed" of some moisture transport with such a large precipitation shield across the S Southeast US. The 12z suite of forecast guidance generally stayed close to the existing forecast. There were some northward shifts in CAMs (as well as the NAM). Balancing the dry air mass, subtle northward shift of some guidance and reducing snow ratios a touch, we`ve generally held course with this afternoon`s forecast package. In coordination with neighboring offices, we did reduce the inherited 20:1 snow ratios (now capped at (17:1); likely over- boosted by the very cold air mass. Indeed, the 15k FT deep dendritic growth zone is impressive, but overall forcing in the column is modest as revealed by time-height cross sections. Nonetheless, a fluffy snow and a brief period 1" per hour rates. These rates are most likely around sunrise Sunday morning as an area of mid-level frontogenesis passes overhead. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow, with easterly wind at the start of the evening "backing" (counter-clockwise) to become westerly by the snow`s end. A single band of lake effect develops Sunday night as this surface low becomes centered off the New England coast. The band tracks from the western Lake Michigan shore to the east which will limit residence time but 1" per hour rates are expected as the band swings through. Depending on its residence time for the Monday morning commute, additional winter weather headlines may be needed for Michiana.
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