Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Happy Sunday. We got another station online.
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Hey Baltimore metro folks!
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No significant impacts in Maryland from a nearby TC or TC remnants.
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$20 says we get nada this year
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Man the CAMs have blown chunks the past week.
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Watching this weekend from sunny San Diego. Enjoy the derecho and tornado swarm!
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Naw i just want rain. Only M0.15" overnight.
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Fairfax getting rocked. Legit 50 - 60 kt cores showing up just off the surface.
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Leesburg gusted to 43 mph.
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M40 mph wind gust at the Keedysville mesonet site.
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The 00z balloon from IAD shows only 600 j/kg of SBCAPE. This is in no way a "classic" severe weather sounding.
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Still about 1,000 j/kg of DCAPE. Maybe we get a few wind reports. Watch seems justified, iMO.
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Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming until midnight.
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Front Royal just gusted to 47 kts.
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Agreed. I just want a steady, soaking rain over several hours.
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Looks like the only chance for rain in the metro is that cluster coming out of West Virginia.
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Same. I'm legit worried we get a dry frontal passage. It looks like the CAMs absolutely blew chunks on this entire setup.
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Pity meso for DC and points northeast https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1429.html
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Looks like our shot at storms is starting to take shape over Central West Virginia.
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lol...are BWI and DCA going to hit 100° today?
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Looks like upstate PA is the place to be. Euro is pretty dry in these parts for the evening.
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The aggressive CAMs appear to have some sort of Round 1 initiation along I-81 around 3:30 pm. That's my benchmark to see how things are breaking today. If we get to say 4:30 and there's nada, then we can probably expect a benign evening.
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HRRR overmixing bias strikes again. It's also too low on the CAPE as well. Looks like a outlier.
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Looks like a severe thunderstorm watch going out to our NW in PA and Ohio?
