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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Week of Jan 20th. If we don't have something plausible within 5 days of that, then it's probably game over for even hitting climo snowfall. It's going to be feast or famine during the upcoming favorable window.
  2. JB is a clown. No one should take him seriously anymore.
  3. This. We won with this setup in December 2013.
  4. Would be happy even with a few solid advisory level events even.
  5. It's a La Nina pattern. That shouldn't be a surprise.
  6. I'm trying to be optimistic this winter, but it's concerning to see a decent pattern getting can kicked or outright canceled repeatedly. The only thing that's saved us from a dead ratter in the snowfall department are the two minor December events.
  7. Appreciate the info. You are correct in that 2006-07 was decent when I was in Lancaster/Philly. 2014-15 was okay down here in Baltimore. 1997-98 and 2018-2019 were hot garbage, IMO.
  8. I don't think any of the analogs that Webber has listed below were particularly good winters in these parts?
  9. What did the P.I.S.S. Index look like in the 10-15 days leading up to the Jan 2016 event?
  10. We're in a truly desperate state in the Mid Atlantic sub forum. It's been a decade since there has been a region wide warning level snowfall, and it's looking rather grim for snowfall chances down our way once again this winter. It's entirely possible that we won't even manage a double digit seasonal snowfall total at any of our climate sites (BWI, DCA, IAD) again this year. I wouldn't read too much into it up in your neck of the woods. You can still very easily score and have had several events this far.
  11. Oh I know! I'm a Cooperative Observer for NWS (RSTM2). This past December was the first time in years (5+?) that we didn't hit 60°. EDIT: First time since 2017 for my site.
  12. No. We have 9 months out of the year to be warm.
  13. Squall line looks legit on Pittsburgh's radar.
  14. 18z Euro gets some kind of snow back to I-81
  15. Latest HRRR is rather emphatic for a decent snow squall tomorrow regionwide.
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